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1.
The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries. 相似文献
2.
This introduction aims to place the articles in this special edition in the context of the wider literature on call centres. The discussion is arranged around four themes: the characteristics and organisational features of call centre work, the choices and strategies that are available to manage the work, the effects of this type of work on employees and, finally, the responses and reactions of call centre staff to their work experiences. The articles selected, which are drawn from a conference sponsored by this journal, are then summarised. 相似文献
3.
Nicholas C. Baltas 《Agricultural Economics》1992,7(3-4):225-243
Between 1981 and 1988, the drachma has devalued by 62.5% against the ECU. Until mid-1985 any devaluation of the drachma was followed by a corresponding devaluation of the ‘green drachma‘. After that period, the green rate either remained unchanged or changed by a substantially smaller percentage, resulting in farmers' income loss and consumers' gain. The aim of this paper is to investigate the welfare effects on production/producer, consumption/consumer and budgetary flows from and to FEOGA assuming that an adjustment of the green drachma to its current exchange rate was realized. For this purpose partial analysis methodology is employed. The main findings are that, following a simultaneous adjustment of both rates, the gains to producers and in exchange flows more than make up for the corresponding consumers' losses for all products except beef. 相似文献
4.
The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic. 相似文献
5.
6.
The meaning and identification of poverty are examined usingthree indicators of standard of living in the North Indian villageof Palanpur. The first is intended as a measure of "apparentprosperity" based on the personal assessments of investigatorsafter intensive field work in the village over the full agriculturalyear 198384. The other two are income in 198384,and a measure of permanent income obtained by averaging incomesfrom four surveys conducted over a twenty-six-year interval.A comparison of these three indicators shows that income measuredin any one year may give a misleading impression of the incidenceof poverty. The risk of poverty for households is calculated.Vulnerability is high among low-caste households and those whichare involved in agricultural labor. Categories, however, arenot homogeneous; for example, whereas the landless and widowsare more likely to be poor, some of such households are quitewell off. It is argued that poverty in a good agricultural yearis a better indicator of sustained poverty than poverty in abad year. Occupational mobility out of agricultural labor islow, and changes in the distribution of land are largely accountedfor by demographic processes such as household splits. 相似文献
7.
New market creation through transformation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Is new market creation a search and selectionprocess within the theoretical space of all possible markets? Or is it the outcome of a process of transformation of extant realities into new possibilities? In this article we consider new market creation as a process involving a new
network of stakeholders. The network is initiated through an effectual commitment that sets in motion two concurrent cycles of expanding resources and convergingconstraints that result in the new market. The dynamic model was induced from two empirical investigations, a cognitive science-based
investigation of entrepreneurial expertise, and a real time history of the RFID industry.
JEL Classification:
M13, M31, D4, D52, D71, D72, L1, L2, P42
We would like to thank the Batten Institute at the Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia,
for supporting this research. We would also like to thank the following on specific contributions to our thesis: Anil Menon
for his relentless insistence on more precise formulations of effectual reasoning; Jim March for his conversation and for
inspiring us to dig into Type I and Type II errors; Rob Wiltbank for firming up the section on opportunity costs; and Stuart
Read for helping us clarify our writing.
Correspondence to: S.D. Sarasvathy 相似文献
8.
9.
The substantively rational value of the games studied in this paper does not help predict subject performance in the experiment at all. An accurate model must account for the cognitive ability of the people playing the game. This paper investigates whether the variation in measured rationality bounds is correlated with the probability of winning when playing against another person in games that exceed both players’ estimated rationality bound. Does seeing deeper into a game matter when neither player can see to the end of the game? Subjects with higher measured bounds win 63 percent of the time and the larger the difference the more frequently they win. 相似文献
10.
Summary LetT denote a continuous time horizon and {G
t
:tT} be a net (generalized sequence) of Bayesian games. We show that: (i) if {x
t
: tT} is a net of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) strategies for Gt we can extract a subsequence which converges to a limit full information BNE strategy for a one shot limit full information Bayesian game, (ii) If {x
t
: tT} is a net of approximate or t-BNE strategies for the game Gt we can still extract a subsequence which converges to the one shot limit full information equilibrium BNE strategy, (iii) Given a limit full information BNE strategy of a one shot limit full information Bayesian game, we can find a net of t-BNE strategies {x
t
: tT} in {G
t
:tT} which converges to the limit full information BNE strategy of the one shot game.We wish to thank Larry Blume, Mark Feldman, Jim Jordan, Charlie Kahn, Stefan Krasa, Gregory Michalopoulos, Wayne Shafer, Bart Taub, and Anne Villamil for several useful discussions. The financial support of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Campus Research Board is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献