Income taxation when markets are incomplete

We investigate the welfare effects of proportional income taxation in a standard general equilibrium model with incomplete markets (GEI). Formally, our analysis is on the allocative effects of state-contingent income tax reforms. Tax reforms are restricted to be anonymous, publicly and truthfully announced before markets open, and they are required to result in an ex-post constrained efficient allocation. Our main result is to show that there do typically exist contingent tax reforms that are Pareto improving. These reforms, acting directly on the asset span, modify private risk-sharing opportunities. Thus, unlike most of the GEI literature, the type of policy transmission mechanism considered does not rely on second-order, relative spot price effects. Yet, the key welfare effects of our tax reforms are substantially equivalent to those induced through changes in relative spot prices, as, for example, in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986), Geanakoplos et al. (1990), or in Citanna et al. (2001). Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 58E17, 46N10, 93B29 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D52, H21, H24, H25     

A principal component model for forecasting age- and sex-specific survival probabilities in Western Europe

The assessment of future mortality is of high importance in many areas where the allocation of future resources has to be planned in time, especially in social security and private life insurance. This contribution represents an extension of the classic forecasting approaches of Bell–Monsell and Lee–Carter. Based on a forecast of the first two principal components, age- and sex-specific survival probabilities for 18 Western European countries are predicted simultaneously until the year 2070. In addition to the correlations in the mortality trends between the age groups and the genders, international trends in mortality are captured as well. A major improvement in the classic Lee–Carter models is the adequate quantification of the uncertainty associated with the whole system of variables by stochastic simulation of all remaining principal components with simple time series models. The model’s easy applicability to further analyses is illustrated by forecasting the median life span as well as the resulting Gender Gap for Germany, France, and Italy.     

An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function

This paper examines the impact of imposing different separability assumptions in the specifications of the standard hierarchical KLEM production function in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The appropriate means of introducing energy to production functions has been a source of debate for a number of years. However, while modellers often subject results to parametric sensitivy analysis regarding the values associated with elasticities of substitution between inputs, it is rarely the case that the structure of the production function is subjected to testing. However, the chosen structure reflects the modeller's view about elasticity between different inputs and will have implications for model results wherever there are changes in relative prices. We illustrate our argument by introducing a simple demand shock to a CGE model of the Scottish economy (targeted at the energy supply sector) under different assumptions regarding the structure of the KLEM production function and separability assumptions therein.     

A social welfare function characterizing competitive equilibria of incomplete financial markets

A classic characterization of competitive equilibria views them as feasible allocations maximizing a weighted sum of utilities. It has been applied to establish fundamental properties of the equilibrium notion, such as existence, determinacy, and computability. However, it fails for economies with missing financial markets.We give such a characterization for economies with a single commodity and missing financial markets, by an amended social welfare function. Its parameters capture both the relative importance of households welfare, through the classic welfare weights, as well as the disagreements among them as to the value of the missing markets.As a by-product, we identify the dimension of the set of interior equilibrium allocations.     

Unit nonresponse errors in income surveys: a case study

A survey on the economic and social conditions of households in the city of Modena was carried out in 2002 and in 2006 (two waves) by the CAPP (Centre for Analyses of Public Policies). In the first wave of 2002, each designated sampling unit (i.e., the family) had three units as reserves. If the first refused to be interviewed, the interviewer contacted the three reserves, one after the other, until obtaining either one respondent or four non-participant units. At the end of the survey four categories of units were distinguished: interviewees, refusals, noncontacts, and unused reserves. All units were matched with their corresponding record in the databases of the Ministry of Finance of 2002 and the Census of 2001. The resulting data set permitted the analysis of unit or total nonresponses. The distribution of fiscal income showed different shapes for the four categories, implying a selective participation of the families. The interviewees yielded a positive bias of about 600?, holding constant other factors. The selection of the significant factors affecting nonresponse was performed via backward elimination in a logit model and with the lasso method. Participation increased as fiscal income and age increased and by education level (secondary school and university degree), while it decreased among entrepreneurs, independent workers, managers, and medium-to-low skilled workers.     

Incomplete Information in Monetary Policy Games: Rules Rather Than a Conservative Central Banker

Time inconsistency in monetary policy can be addressed appointing a conservative central banker. But incomplete information about the central banker's preferences impairs the performance of delegation schemes. Firstly, the ensuing ex-ante variability of monetary response lowers welfare. Secondly, partial independence schemes may prove inadequate because reputation — not only legal arrangements — defines the actual degree of independence. The incumbent may exploit his reputation to impose too conservative policies whereas, if he lacks reputation, partial independence forces him to accommodate. As a result, simple rules may be preferred.
…I do not believe that we should always get the best man for the post; often I fear that we should not even get a tolerable man.
(W. Bagehot, The Government of the Bank of England, in 'Lombard Street')     

Firm Size Distribution and Growth*

Abstract Empirical documentation of the sectoral distribution of firm size for a set of European countries reveals substantial differences. We study the relationship between productivity growth at the industry level and size structure. A positive and robust relation is found between average firm size and growth. We ask why size should matter for growth by considering the role of innovation to construct a test based on the differential effect of size on growth according to various indicators of R&D intensity. Our results indicate that larger size fosters productivity growth because it allows firms to take advantage of all the increasing returns associated with R&D. We argue that our test can be interpreted as a test of reverse causality, which lends support to the view that firm size has a causal impact on growth.     

A simple and flexible alternative to Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?

We model a monetary union where fiscal discretion generates excessive debt accumulation in steady state and inefficiently delayed debt adjustment following shocks. By setting a debt target and raising the political cost of deviating from the optimal pace of debt reversal¸ institutional design induces fiscal policymakers to implement unbiased responses to shocks. This is partly achieved by increasing the transparency of the decision-making process. We therefore call for more focused supervision tasks for the European Commission and for parliamentary discussion whenever a disagreement arises between the Commission and a national government.     

Constrained inefficiency in GEI: A geometric argument

In this paper we use global analysis to study the welfare properties of general equilibrium economies with incomplete markets (GEI). Our main result is to show that constrained Pareto optimal equilibria are contained in a submanifold of the equilibrium set. This result is explicitly derived for economies with real assets and fixed aggregate resources, of which real numéraire assets are a special case. As a by product of our analysis, we propose an original global parametrization of the equilibrium set that generalizes to incomplete markets the classical one, first, proposed by Lange [Lange, O., 1942. The foundations of welfare economics. Econometrica 10, 215–228].