Delphi: An investigation from a Bayesian viewpoint

This paper presents an analysis of Delphi from a Bayesian point of view and brings to attention several hitherto neglected, but highly relevant findings of research in areas other than Delphi proper. The aim has been to seek avenues of improvement in the Delphi technique. This has led to development of a methodology, which is based on a concept of second order probabilities as a measure of one's fuzzy thinking. The justification of this new methodology lies in explicit recognition and implementation of an optimum, determined by the trade-off between advantages and complexities of hierarchial inference. It is essential that conventional Delphi applications, at the very least, be accompanied by a Turoff-type cross impact analysis. It is indicated that the tremendous potential of Bayesianized Delphi in appropriate situations has remained utapped.     

Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center

The case requires students to evaluate the current situation and growth options of a small business, Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center (D&N), which provides intergenerational programming to preschool children at a retirement home. The learning center was opened in September 2014, and it was able to make a small profit each year. However, it is projected that there would be a 75 percent decrease in net income from $8,072 in Fiscal 2016 to $1,819 in Fiscal 2017. Davis and Nathans, business partners of D&N, met to discuss the following growth options: (i) Mosaic Retirement Residences' proposal to set up two learning centers at their retirement homes each year for a total of six in three years and (ii) Harmony Retirement Residences' proposal for leasing space to set up learning centers at their retirement homes, one new learning center a year for a total of three in three years. Furthermore, Davis and Nathans had decided to increase the program fee from $320 to $350 per week for the 2017–18 academic session in September. They would also like to reduce their workload from 50 to 40 hours per week, increase their vacation time from two to three weeks, and increase their salaries and bonuses. Students must consider personal objectives of business partners and mission of D&N in the analysis. They learn to identify relevant information for decision making, apply appropriate analytical tools for quantitative analysis, integrate qualitative and quantitative factors in decision making, and make recommendations consistent with analysis.     

Uncertainty perception in bidding for Product-Service Systems under competition

This research investigates what impact of uncertainty perception arising from the existence of competition has on the pricing decision for Product-Service Systems (PSS) under uncertainty. PSS provision is an increasingly important area for many businesses and competition increases cognitive pressures on providers even further. We present an experimental study with industrial costing and bidding experts from the defence and aerospace sector. The study consisted of an experimental set-up via two questionnaires which differed in the existence of competition in the bidding scenario. The findings showed that bidding decision makers changed their evaluation of the cost estimate due to the introduction of competition but kept their evaluations of the profit margin and price bids constant. Furthermore, the participants listed the relevant sources of uncertainty that influenced their decision-making process. This research contributes to the literature in two ways. First, our findings showed that predictions from current theory regarding decision-making of cost estimation and pricing are not confirmed when competitively bidding for PSS. Second, we show uncertainty sources that influenced the decision makers and identified p the importance of internal processes of the PSS provider and environmental uncertainty.     

An investigation of restaurant food safety performance: A comparison between ethnic and nonethnic and chain and independent restaurants in Louisiana

This study examines health inspection data from casual dining restaurants and compares differences of food code violations between ethnic and nonethnic restaurants. A total of 7,415 violations were retrieved from the restaurant inspection reports of 769 restaurants. Ethnic restaurants have more violations than nonethnic restaurant in categories related to food time/temperature violations, cross contamination, and food condition/surface/labels. Nonethnic and chain restaurants had fewer behavioral violations than ethnic and independently operated restaurants. Ethnic restaurants were 1.74 times more likely than nonethnic restaurants to have critical violations. Meanwhile, independent restaurants were 1.64 times more likely than chain restaurants to have critical violations.     

Target‐Setting,Pay for Performance,and Quality Improvement: A Case Study of Ontario Hospitals’ Quality‐Improvement Plans

This study examines whether difficult targets and quality indicators in executives' pay‐for‐performance (P4P) plans affect performance. The impact of target‐setting and P4P plans on quality improvement in the public sector is unclear. The Ontario government initiated the Quality Improvement Plan (QIP), which requires hospitals to set targets for quality indicators annually and link executive pay to target achievement since 2011. Analyzing Health Quality Ontario's database and hospitals' 2012–2013 QIPs, this study shows greater quality improvement in hospitals with difficult targets than hospitals with easy targets or without assigned targets; however, the positive impact disappears for high‐performance hospitals relative to their peers. We find no significant effect of the use of quality indicators in executives' P4P plans on quality improvement. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The re-emergence of the public accounting profession in China: A hegemonic analysis

This paper draws on Gramsci's concept of hegemony to examine and explain the circumstances leading to the re-emergence of the public accounting profession in China in the early 1980s. In particular, the paper attempts to understand the political and ideological influence upon the professionalisation process of the Chinese accountants. The paper not only highlights a major difference between the professionalisation process of the public accounting profession in China as compared to the West, but also the authoritative and dominant role assumed by the Chinese state in the whole societal set-up. Through effectively exercising its political and ideological leadership, the state successfully mobilised the Chinese accountants in the implementation of its economic-related agenda. The paper demonstrates that the state has clearly achieved hegemony within the accounting community, and further suggests that the state-accounting profession relationship could be likened to the father–son relationship as encompassed within the Confucian notion of wu lun.     

BUYERS,SELLERS, AND MIDDLEMEN: VARIATIONS ON SEARCH‐THEORETIC THEMES

We study exchange that is bilateral but indirect—it involves chains of intermediaries, or middlemen—in markets with frictions. These frictions include search and bargaining problems. We show how, and how many, intermediaries might get involved in a chain, and how bargaining with one depends on upcoming negotiations with those downstream. The roles of buyers, sellers, money, and prices are discussed, allowing us to clarify some neglected connections between different branches of search theory. Pursuing one such connection, with monetary economics, we show how bubbles can emerge in intermediation, even with fully rational agents and perfect foresight.     

Governmental responses mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises and the case for insolvency law reforms in Hong Kong

The COVID-19 crisis has triggered unprecedented governmental responses around the world to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, with particular attention being given to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Governments around the world have implemented economic measures in the form of direct subsidies or government-guaranteed loans, and legislated to provide mandatory relief from contractual obligations. In addition, increasing recognition of the limitations of insolvency regime in addressing the crisis for SMEs prompted many jurisdictions to change their laws. However, consistent with its free market principles, Hong Kong has only adopted economic measures and has provided limited contractual relief in favour of SME tenants. There is no SME-specific insolvency law nor is the Hong Kong government currently considering any such law reform. This article reviews the need for a temporary insolvency regime to cater to distressed but economically viable SMEs restructure their debts. Drawing on a set of interviews with Hong Kong SME owners, this author finds that they are often unaware of how insolvency law operates, their unsecured creditors are apathetic, and bankruptcy stigmatism is high. Based on a review of the frameworks in the other advanced common law jurisdictions such as the United States, Australia and Singapore, a recommendation for a simplified restructuring and liquidation framework is developed. The process is designed to be simplified and expedited and it incentivises early negotiations with creditors.     

MNC foreign investment and industrial disasters: The moderating role of technological,safety management,and philanthropic capabilities

Research Summary: We investigate how industrial disasters can discourage FDI and how MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can moderate these effects. Using two unique panel data sets of entry and expansion of U.S. wholly‐owned manufacturing subsidiaries overseas, we found that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the disaster industry, but not for all firms in the host country experiencing the disaster. We also found that MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can, in some cases, positively moderate the negative relationships between industrial disasters and the foreign entry and expansion of wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Additionally, three‐way interactions with government stability suggest that technological and safety management capabilities substitute government stability in managing industrial disasters, while philanthropic capability complements government stability. Managerial Summary: How can MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities overcome the effects of industrial disasters such as chemical spills and explosions in host countries? Our results show that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the industry in which the industrial disaster occurs, but not for other firms operating in the country experiencing the disaster. However, an MNC's technological capability can, in general, lower the negative consequences of industrial disasters in both the entry and expansion of its wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Regarding the institutional quality of a host country, the results imply that MNCs should develop philanthropic capability when the government stability of the host country is strong, and develop technological and safety management capabilities when the government stability is weak.