SEIGNORAGE AND EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION

Inflation differentials in Europe have narrowed substantially since the inception of the European Monetary System in 1979. However, their persistence after more than a decade raises the question of why these differentials are so difficult to eliminate. Some European Community countries systematically use seignorage—financing government expenditures with money creation—while others do not. This increases the difficulty of achieving the convergence of monetary policies and inflation rates required for irrevocably fixed exchange rates in Europe. This paper, utilizing a model of government finance that minimizes the social cost of financing government expenditures, examines monetary finance in the European Community. It rejects soundly the social cost minimization model of seignorage collection.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN WELFARE CASELOADS AND LOCAL LABOR MARKETS

This paper provides an empirical examination of interactions between welfare caseloads and local labor markets using data on caseload stocks, entries, and exits. Granger‐causality tests show that unemployment rates Granger‐cause caseload activity but caseload activity does not Granger‐cause unemployment rates. The results also reveal differential dynamics between caseloads and labor market conditions for rural versus metropolitan markets. Several models of one‐way association between caseload activity and unemployment rates are presented. The results show that higher unemployment rates are positively associated with welfare caseloads and entries and negatively related to exits. (JEL I38, R23)     

OF MICE AND ELEPHANTS: THE CANADA-U.S. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper critically assesses the free trade agreement between Canada and the United States. Reviewing the theoretical literature on the gains from trade and the empirical literature on bilateral trade liberalization reveals that no presumption should exist that bilateral free trade would significantly improve Canada's welfare. Moreover, because of uncertainty over future abrogation or contingent protection actions, much of the predicted rationalization of Canadian industry may not occur. If, on the other hand, firms in Canada make major investments to take advantage of the agreement, Canada's bargaining position with the United States on trade and other issues could be weakened.     

The Impact of Comparative Food Price Information on Consumers and Grocery Retailers: Some Preliminary Findings of a Field Experiment

There is reason to believe that consumers face a difficult task in securing adequate and accurate information upon which to judge relative price levels of competing foodstores. The objective of the research reported here was to investigate the potential of retail food price reporting for correcting this information problem. Both consumer and grocery retailer responses to this comparative food price information were analyzed. A pretest-post-test design with four pairs of experimental-control cities (with replications at two levels of concentration) was employed to collect price data. A modified Solomon-four group design was used for surveys of food consumers in experimental and control cities. The results of analysis of variance models lend support to the hypothesis that price reporting can lower the relative level of food prices, both for items individually identified in a price report and items not identified in the report. The magnitude of this effect varied among the cities. It appears that consumers' role in this experiment was a passive one: consumer behavior and patronage patterns did not change in a manner that would consistently reinforce the competitive effects of the price reports.     

Coalitional Colonel Blotto Games with Application to the Economics of Alliances

In Borel’s Colonel Blotto game two players simultaneously allocate their respective endowments of a resource across n battlefields, the higher allocation wins each battlefield, and players maximize the number of battlefields won. Here we examine two players who may form an alliance before separately competing in two disjoint Colonel Blotto games against a common adversary. Despite a lack of common interests, unilateral transfers—in a direction consistent with the exploitation hypothesis—arise for a range of parameter configurations. Such transfers alter the adversary’s strategy and the combination of the direct and strategic effects benefits both allies.     

A Catholic Response to Henry George's Critique of Pope Leo XIII's Rerum Novarum

In Rerum Novarum, the first of the modern social encyclicals, Pope Leo XIII argued that there is a right to the possession of property, but there are limits on the use of wealth. Christians have an obligation to use their property and talents for the good of others. Private ownership must serve not only the interests of the individual but also the public welfare. The disadvantages of private ownership are not to be corrected by socialism, communism, or the free market, but by the teaching of the Church on faith and morals, the laws of the State, and the action of private associations. Efforts to solve the problems of poverty and unjust working conditions will be in vain unless principles of Christian living drawn from the Gospel are taught to people in all ranks of society.     

How Do Front and Back Package Labels Influence Beliefs About Health Claims?

One dilemma with health claims is that too much information can confuse consumers and too little information can mislead them. A controlled study is used to examine the effectiveness of various front‐sided health claims when used in combination with a full health claim on the back of a package. The results indicate that combining short health claims on the front of a package with full health claims on the back of the package leads consumers to more fully process and believe the claim. The basic finding that using two sides of a package (short claim on front; long on back) increases the believability of health claims is relevant for policymakers, consumers, and researchers.     

Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model

New Keynesian model in which households have Epstein–Zin preferences with time‐varying risk aversion and the central bank has a time‐varying inflation target can match the dynamics of nominal bond prices in the U.S. economy well. The model generates a large steady‐state term spread and its fitting errors for bond yields are comparable to those obtained from a nonstructural three‐factor model, and one‐third smaller than in models with a constant inflation target or risk aversion. Including data on interest rates has large effects on variance decompositions, making investment technology shocks much less important than found in other recent papers.