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1.
We approximate probabilistic forecasts for interval-valued time series by offering alternative approaches. After fitting a possibly non-Gaussian bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model to the center/log-range system, we transform prediction regions (analytical and bootstrap) for this system into regions for center/range and upper/lower bounds systems. Monte Carlo simulations show that bootstrap methods are preferred according to several new metrics. For daily S&P 500 low/high returns, we build joint conditional prediction regions of the return level and volatility. We illustrate the usefulness of obtaining bootstrap forecasts regions for low/high returns by developing a trading strategy and showing its profitability when compared to using point forecasts. 相似文献
2.
José Juan Cáceres‐Hernández Gloria Martín‐Rodríguez 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2017,61(2):304-323
The univariate statistical properties of agricultural price series need to be examined as a first step in the analysis of price transmission mechanisms. However, in the case of weekly price series, increasingly available, the testing procedures usually applied in this step are not suitable to deal with evolving seasonal effects. In this study, a method of testing for seasonal unit roots in weekly series of agricultural prices is described. When the deterministic seasonal component does not remain constant over time, the restricted evolving spline model (RESM) is shown to be a useful parametric formulation to capture the deterministic seasonal pattern. Therefore, the RESM model should be included as a deterministic component in auxiliary regression for unit root tests at seasonal frequencies. This proposal is applied to three weekly series of Canary Islands banana prices. From the standard seasonal unit root tests, the null hypothesis is failed to be rejected at the 5% or 10% significance level at some seasonal frequencies for each one of the series. Once critical values are obtained by simulation exercises when the RESM model is included, the hypotheses of unit root are rejected at each one of the seasonal frequencies for all of the three series. 相似文献
3.
New Product Strategy, Structure, Process, and Performance in the Telecommunications Industry 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Gloria Barczak 《Journal of Product Innovation Management》1995,12(3):224-234
A continuous flow of new products is the lifeblood for firms that hope to remain competitive in high-technology industries such as telecommunications. Faced with rapidly shrinking product life cycles, these firms must aggressively pursue the quest for more effective new product development (NPD). Ongoing success in such industries is dependent on choosing the right mix of new product strategy, organizational structure, and NPD processes. Rather than considering the interrelationships among these success factors, however, most previous studies of NPD have examined these issues individually. This shortcoming is compounded by the fact that past studies of NPD have typically cut across industry lines. Gloria Barczak addresses these problems by proposing that a firm's choice of new product strategy, structure, and process are interrelated, as are the effects of those choices on NPD performance. Because these choices and their effects also may be dependent on the unique characteristics of the industry in which a firm competes, her study focuses exclusively on firms in a specific, high-technology industry, telecommunications. The study finds that no single NPD strategy, in and of itself, stands out as being better than any other for the telecommunications industry. Instead, it appears that a company's focus should be on ensuring the best possible fit between its chosen NPD strategy and its corporate goals and capabilities. In keeping with the current focus on cross-functional teams, the study results indicate that project teams and R&D teams are the most effective means for organizing NPD efforts in the telecommunications industry. Perhaps not surprisingly, R&D teams are more important for first-to-market firms than they are for fast followers and late entrants. An R&D team provides the technical skills necessary for playing the role of pioneer. Regardless of the firm's NPD strategy and structure, the presence of a product champion is an important element in the success of new product efforts. In an era of rapid, technological advances, idea generation and screening efforts are essential to the success of telecommunications firms. To ensure that they do not fall into the trap of introducing technology for technology's sake, pioneering and fast-follower firms in particular must recognize the importance of staying in touch with their markets. Such market-oriented activities as customer prototype testing and concept definition and testing can help these firms ensure that their technological developments are in line with customer needs and requirements. 相似文献
4.
Daniel Z. Ding Syed Akhtar Gloria L. Ge 《International Journal of Human Resource Management》2013,24(4):693-715
More than two decades of economic reforms have brought profound changes in human resource management practices in both the state and non-state sectors in China. This study focuses on the impact of organizational factors on compensation and benefits for Chinese managers in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), publicly listed firms (PLFs), and foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs). The empirical investigation of 465 firms located in three major Chinese cities, Shanghai, Nanjing and Guangzhou, provides evidence that organizational factors, such as ownership, firm size, firm age, location and industrial sector, have significant impacts on the variances in Chinese managers' compensation levels, compensation structures and benefits. The trends in the development of compensation and benefits for Chinese managers are also discussed as the Chinese economy moves closer to a more globalized, highly dynamic economy after China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. 相似文献
5.
This article highlights the main reform trajectories put in place in French, Italian, German and Portuguese local governments during the recent crisis and identifies a number of important trends: for example increasing centralization of decision-making powers away from local governments. The authors explain why local governments have an opportunity to use reforms during the crisis to strategically reposition their value proposition. 相似文献
6.
The Effects of Cognitive Problem-Solving Orientation and Technological Familiarity on Faster New Product Development 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This study examines the relationships between speed of development and the cognitive problemsolving orientations of both members of the team and the project leader when they work with more familiar or less familiar technologies. Edward McDonough and Gloria Barczak collected data from 32 new product development projects in 12 British companies. They report that technological familiarity moderates the relationship between speed of development and the cognitive problem-solving orientation of both project leaders and project teams and they explore implications of these results for R&D managers. 相似文献
7.
8.
On February 27,China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(MIIT)granted China Telecom(CT,unrated)and China Unicom(unrated)nationwide permits to provide LTE/4G FDD service.The approvals were widely expected and the credit impact to China Mobile Limited(Aa3 stable),while negative,should be modest.The increased competition is unlikely to upend China Mobile’s dominant position in Chinas growing telecommunications industry,esp,ecially 相似文献
9.
Impact of internal and external environmental stability on the existence of determinant buying rules
The environment of the buying center is conceptualized as having two components. One is external to the buying center but internal organization. The other is external to both the buying center and the organization. The stability of these environments explains a significant amount of variation in the existence of organizational rules that determine the outcomes of organizational buying decisions. A comparison of global and attribute- specific measures of environmental stability indicates the environmental attributes that underlie respondents' global judgements about stability. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, we draw on theory from social worlds to analyze how different organizational contexts affect groupware adoption. We report on a study of the adoption of data conferencing in a large distributed organization. Our data show that the diffusion process, which was driven by the users, was a result of communication and transformation of the technology across different social worlds. We also discovered that membership in multiple social worlds in an organization creates a tension for the potential adopter who is in a distributed team. To function effectively, team members must uniformly adopt the technology, yet some may face resistance from other social worlds to which they belong. Our study showed that adoption was affected by organizational sites having conflicting views of the value of collaboration, different amounts and needs for resources, and different acceptance of technology standards. Potential technology adopters on distributed teams are faced with conflicting loyalties, constraints, and requirements between their distributed collaborations and organizational homes. 相似文献