Measuring Integrated Market and Credit Risk in Bank Portfolios: An Application to a Set of Hypothetical Banks Operating in South Africa

The banking crises of the ‘90s emphasize the need to model the connections between financial environment volatility and the potential losses faced by financial institutions resulting from correlated market and credit risks. Due to the number of variables that must be modeled and the complexity of the relationships an analytical solution is not feasible. We present here a numerical solution based on a simulation model that explicitly links changes in the relevant variables that characterize the financial environment and the distribution of possible future bank capital ratios. This forward looking quantitative risk assessment methodology allows banks and regulators to identify potential risks before they materialize and make appropriate adjustments to bank portfolio credit qualities, sector and region concentrations, and capital ratios on a bank by bank basis. It also has the potential to be extended so as to assess the risks of correlated failures among a group of financial institutions (i.e., systemic risk analyses). This model was applied by the authors to the study of the risk profile of the largest South African Banks in the context of the Financial System Stability Assessment program undertaken by the IMF in 1999. In the current study, we apply the model to various hypothetical banks operating in the South African financial environment and assess the correlated market and credit risks associated with business lending, mortgage lending, asset and liability maturity matches, foreign lending and borrowing, and direct equity, real estate, and gold investments. It is shown to produce simulated financial environments (interest rates, exchange rates, equity indices, real estate price indices, commodity prices, and economic indicators) that match closely the assumed parameters, and generate reasonable credit transition probabilities and security prices. As expected, the credit quality and diversification characteristics of the loan portfolio, asset and liability maturity mismatches, and financial environment volatility, are shown to interact to determine bank risk levels. We find that the credit quality of a bank's loan portfolio is the most important risk factor. We also show the risk reduction benefits of diversifying the loan portfolio across various sectors and regions of the economy and the importance of accounting for volatility shocks that occur periodically in emerging economies. Banks with high credit risk and concentrated portfolios are shown to have a high risk of failure during periods of financial stress. Alternatively, banks with lower credit risk and broadly diversified loan portfolios across business and mortgage lending are unlikely to fail even during very volatile periods. Asset and liability maturity mismatches generally increase bank risk levels. However, because credit losses are positively correlated with interest rate increases, banks with high credit risk may reduce overall risk levels by holding liabilities with longer maturities than their assets. Risk assessment methodologies which measure market and credit risk separately do not capture these various interactions and thus misestimate overall risk levels.     

Sustainability reporting,materiality, and accountability assessment in the airport industry

Air travel is, nowadays, recognized as being one of the most popular modes of transport. Air transport is among the most significant contributors to the world gross domestic product and is accountable for a great environmental and social impact. Driven by the well‐established sustainability discourse and the vital role businesses can play in disseminating the sustainable development concept, this paper attempted to map airport industry's most material operational aspects and assess airport operators' accountability level on disclosing corporate information regarding airports' economic, environmental, and social performance. In this context, 33 reports and 903 material issues representing 193 international airports were reviewed and assessed, and a methodology for benchmarking the accountability level of best reporting airport operators was developed, showcasing materiality assessment as a useful management tool for strengthening airport operators' business strategy and enhancing their corporate performance. The paper indicated that (a) customer focus (i.e., health, safety and satisfaction), economic viability, and business continuity and preparedness are operational aspects of high materiality and (b) the disclosure level, especially concerning specific performance indicators, is still moderate. In conclusion, this study has shown that materiality assessment gains ground as a management tool among airports' management teams and the completeness of Sustainability reports is positively correlated with the “level” of adherence as described by the Global Reporting Initiative.     

Budget impact model in moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris assessing effects of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate foam on per-patient standard of care costs

Aims: To develop a budget impact model (BIM) for estimating the financial impact of formulary adoption and uptake of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate (C/BD) foam (0.005%/0.064%) on the costs of biologics for treating moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris in a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million members.

Methods: This BIM incorporated epidemiologic data, market uptake assumptions, and drug utilization costs, simulating the treatment mix for patients who are candidates for biologics before (Scenario #1) and after (Scenario #2) the introduction of C/BD foam. Predicted outcomes were expressed in terms of the annual cost of treatment (COT) and the COT per member per month (PMPM).

Results: At year 1, C/BD foam had the lowest per-patient cost ($9,913) necessary to achieve a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI)-75 response compared with etanercept ($73,773), adalimumab ($92,871), infliximab ($34,048), ustekinumab ($83,975), secukinumab ($113,858), apremilast ($47,960), and ixekizumab ($62,707). Following addition of C/BD foam to the formulary, the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis would decrease by $36,112,572 (17.91%, from $201,621,219 to $165,508,647). The COT PMPM is expected to decrease by $3.00 (17.86%, from $16.80 to $13.80).

Limitations: Drug costs were based on Medi-Span reference pricing (January 21, 2016); differences in treatment costs for drug administration, laboratory monitoring, or adverse events were not accounted for. Potentially confounding were the definition of “moderate-to-severe” and the heterogeneous efficacy data. The per-patient cost for PASI-75 response at year 1 was estimated from short-term efficacy data for C/BD foam and apremilast only.

Conclusions: The introduction of C/BD foam is expected to decrease the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis treatable with biologics by $36,112,572 for a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million plan members, and to lower the COT PMPM by $3.00.     

Does R&D,human capital and FDI matter for TFP in OECD countries?

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the interplay between research and development (R&D), human capital (HC), foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) in OECD countries. We divide the sample into two sub-groups; the European and the non-European states so as to account for underlying country heterogeneity. The analysis follows a panel data approach over the period 1995–2015, taking into account the modelling on non-stationarity, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics with a panel VAR. Both R&D and HC have a positive effect on TFP, whilst FDI has a positive and significant effect only in the case of non-European countries. Moreover, the contribution of R&D is higher than that of HC and FDI in all cases. Thus, based on these findings, policymakers should design and implement policies to increase resources invested in R&D, with a consistent ongoing spending review, to attract foreign direct investment, especially for the majority of the European and some of the non-European countries and to improve education system on a more productive innovation and research base.     

Liquidity commonality in order-driven trading: evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange

We examine the presence of liquidity commonality in the order-driven Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Unlike the majority of liquidity commonality studies that focus on the bid–ask spread, our analysis extends deeper in the Limit Order Book, providing insight on the price impact of both small and large trades. We utilize a 6-month FTSE/ATHEX-20 intraday data set to estimate the liquidity factor model of Chordia et al. (2000). To this end, we conduct single-equation analysis as well as panel data analysis with the use of two-way clustered errors, correcting for simultaneous firm and time correlations. Moreover, we apply standard principal component analysis on stock liquidities to extract the marketwide liquidity component. We find that liquidity commonality is low at the bid–ask spread, whereas it increases deeper in the book; consequently, large traders face liquidity risks associated with both individual stock and marketwide illiquidity. Moreover, our empirical evidence hints that liquidity commonality is asynchronous, suggesting that the ASE trading process includes various levels of information speed. Our analysis contributes to the understanding of liquidity commonality in order-driven trading, especially in emerging markets like the ASE where trading activity is limited and information speed is low.     

Corporate social responsibility: attributions,loyalty, and the mediating role of trust

This study investigates whether consumers’ perceptions of motives influence their evaluation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts. The study reveals the mediating role of consumer trust in CSR evaluation frameworks; managers should monitor consumer trust, which seems to be an important subprocess regulating the effect of consumer attributions on patronage and recommendation intentions. Further, managers may allay the negative effects of profit-motivated giving by doing well on service quality perceptions. On the other hand, appropriately motivated giving continues to positively affect trust regardless of the performance of the firm on service quality provision.     

Towards a synthesis of theories of State failure

This paper examines the three main categories of State intervention. Before approaching the analysis of intervention, I attempt to shed light on the forming of social choices and the decisions of State rulers. I show how market process and property rights solve problems pertaining to social choice, which in turn stems from the application of the majority rule in a democratic society. Along these lines I view how the State fails to regulate externalities, stabilize the economy and redistribute income. For this purpose the following research applies the theory of property rights, the theory of rational expectations and the theory of public choice respectively to each of the above problems. The conclusion points to a synthesis of these theories, offering a highly demonstrative categorical framework of critique against State intervention. The argument claims that independent non-collective institutions work better than State intervention. (JEL: P16, D72, H23)     

The Innovation Value Chain in New Technology‐Based Firms: Evidence from the U.K.

Innovation is central to the survival and growth of firms, and ultimately to the health of the economies of which they are part. A clear understanding both of the processes by which firms perform innovation and the benefits which flow from innovation in terms of productivity and growth is therefore essential. This paper demonstrates the use of a conceptual framework and modeling tool, the innovation value chain (IVC), and shows how the IVC approach helps to highlight strengths and weaknesses in the innovation performance of a key group of firms—new technology‐based firms. The value of the IVC is demonstrated in showing the key interrelationships in the whole process of innovation from sourcing knowledge through product and process innovation to performance in terms of the growth and productivity outcomes of different types of innovation. The use of the IVC highlights key complementarities, such as that between internal R&D, external R&D, and other external sources of knowledge. Other important relationships are also highlighted. Skill resources matter throughout the IVC, being positively associated with external knowledge linkages and innovation success, and also having a direct influence on growth independent of the effect on innovation. A key benefit of the IVC approach is therefore its ability to highlight the roles of different factors at various stages of the knowledge–innovation–performance nexus, and to show their indirect as well as direct impact. This in turn permits both managerial and policy implications to be drawn.     

Does the Stock Market Compensate Banks for Diversifying into the Insurance Business?

This paper explores a wide range of corporate restructurings, all available deals from wire services, in the banking and insurance sectors that led to bancassurance ventures. An event study methodology is employed to calculate excess returns on and around the deals’ announcement date. Using both univariate and multivariate analysis the paper finds bank driven mergers, deal's size and regional categorization all triggering positive and significant market reactions. Unlike the univariate framework, multivariate analysis shows that geographic focus and language are not significant factors. The results also indicate that markets are indifferent with respect to bank withdrawals from the bank‐insurance operations. Finally, Canadian, U.S. and European bank‐insurance deals produce positive results, while Australasian bidders offer statistically insignificant equity returns.     

Systemic risk,real GDP growth,and sentiment

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a mixed frequency VAR methodology, which can accommodate variables with different frequencies in a VAR framework, we model the relation between...