Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

Outsourcing distribution and logistics services within the automotive supplier industry

This paper reports on an empirical study that examined a suite of distribution and logistics services commonly used to manage inbound materials en route to plants. The sourcing decision is examined through the lenses of transaction cost economics and the resource-based view of the firm and the results lend limited support for both theories in the context of such services. Results further indicate that there is little evidence supporting differences between internal versus external decision-makers.     

Limited information-processing capacity and asymmetric stock correlations

Through an orthogonalized impulse-response analysis, I studied the relationship between the variance risk premium, market variance and stock correlations in the French stock market from September 2002 through September 2006, using high-frequency data-based measures. Variance risk premium is estimated using realized variances and index options-implied variances and used as a state vector to proxy investors perceived uncertainty. I found that a shock to variance risk premium causes long-lasting increases in the market variance pointing to the limitedness of investors information-processing capacity. At the same time, the shock generates consecutive increases in realized correlations between individual stocks and the market portfolio. I propose this as a possible explanation for the asymmetric/counter-cyclic behaviour of stock correlations.     

The Ottoman dissolution and the İstanbul bourse between war and peace: a foreign exchange market perspective on the Great War

The participation of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War caused economic disruptions, huge budget deficits, surmounted inflation rates and excessive depreciation of Lira, the Ottoman currency. Based on the value of Lira against the currencies of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden that were not in the war, we focus on the effects of news about the war on the foreign exchange rates at the ?stanbul bourse from 1918 to 1919. Our results signify some dates, which match the announcements of the armistices and peace meetings, heralding continuous depreciation of Lira. Thus, the findings support the presence of an expectation on the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire with the peace, marked by the escalation of the loss in trust for the Lira and the power of the state in foreign exchange interventions.     

Customer choices of manufacturer versus retailer brands in alternative price and usage contexts

This article offers a context-dependent theory of how price changes influence consumer purchase choice for fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) for manufacturer (large household share) and retailer (small household share) brands. The theory proposes that the influence of price on demand is systematically very sensitive to context effects; more specifically, the theory includes the hypothesis that elasticity is much greater when the price change results in the manufacturer and retailer brands having the same price compared to when the price change keeps the manufacturer brand price above the retailer brand price. The implicit and/or explicit association with higher quality with the manufacturer versus retailer brand may be the main reason for buying the higher priced manufacturer brand. Decreasing the price of the manufacturer brand to equal the retailer brand's price takes away the primary reason for buying the retailer brand (i.e., saving money); increasing the price of the retailer brand to equal the manufacturer brand's price has the same effect. The empirical findings in the studies that this article reports support the hypothesis and confirm Scriven and Ehrenberg's [2004. Consistent consumer responses to price changes. Australas. Mark. J. 12(3), 21–39] major conclusion that relative order of price is more important than relative distance.     

Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey

This study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non-policy variables. The analysis covers the period 1968–1994. The empirical private saving model for Turkey is estimated. The findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia. The evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the Ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly. Income level has a positive impact on private saving rate, and growth rate of income is not statistically significant. From a policy point of view, financial depth and development measures in Turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates. Private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for Turkey. Moreover, the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life-cycle hypothesis. The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the findings that inflation captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on private saving in Turkey.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas–unitas–integritas–consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product (GDP), we quantify the role of international factor income, international transfers, and saving in achieving risk‐sharing during the recent European crisis. We focus on the subperiods 1990–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010 and consider separately the European countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We decompose risk‐sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving, and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk‐sharing during the sovereign debt crisis.     

Technology's Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society

An empirical study into innovation supporting and blocking factors has been conducted of the strategic perceptions of stakeholders within the supply chain of a mature industry sector, based on interview analysis. The data revealed strategic intentions and assumptions that support the emergence of two distinct trajectories of change in the industry based on co-partnership and ad-hoc relationships respectively. A model of the trajectories using current partnership theories of lean supply indicated that the co-partnership trend offers some scope for incremental innovation; the ad-hoc relationship trend offered rather less scope for incremental innovation. Both trends seem to be reducing the scope for development of entrepreneurial networks within which independent design innovators can flourish. The strategic assumptions identified point to an environment that is not supportive of radical innovation. The absence of in-house R&;D capabilities may be an important factor in the industry's difficulties in innovating.     

A Comparative Analysis of Chinese and Japanese Company and Brand Icons

The current study evaluates company and brand icons and investigates their similarities and differences across two cultures: Chinese and Japanese. A systematic analysis of icons was conducted using the normative criteria for effective brand mark design found in the marketing literature. Results show that compared with Japanese icons, Chinese icons are more likely to contain letter marks, have pictorial elements representative of benefits, have conceptual similarity with the company/brand name, be balanced, be more complex, and be less likely to be abstract.