Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

Negotiating the Evolution of the Hr Function: Practical Advice From the Health Care Sector

This paper has two aims. First, to consider explanations for the apparent gap between the paradigm of strategic human resource management on the one hand and actual HR practice on the other. Second, to generate practical advice for senior HR specialists who are aspriring to develop a strategic role for their function. the research underpinning these findings was based on case studies in three hospitals in Adelaide and a comparison of the findings with the situation at Leicester General NHS Trust where the first named author of this article was the HR director and a senior board member. the analysis reveals that specific features of each organisation's history, current structure and management, shape powerfully the nature of the HR function. Moreover, the local shaping factors define the degrees of freedom open to the HR function, so much so, that the notion that it can choose its organisational stance is here challenged.     

Some Determinants of Core Competencies: Evidence from a Binary-Logit Analysis

Despite the increasing recognition of the salience of core competencies in the process of competition, the notion of core competencies has remained largely ambiguous in the literature. Neither is it clear what strategies, institutions, and resources are necessary for developing and sustaining core competencies. This paper uses the binary-logit model to explore the determinants of core competencies, and identifies investment in intangible assets, marketing/promotional activities and firm size as significant determinants of core competencies. An evaluation of the technology strategies of two competence-seeking firms also points to the increasing salience of intangible assets, decentralization/globalization of the R&D function, and the intensive search for knowledge and capabilities.     

Risk Management Using Quasi–static Hedging

In this paper, we try to develop a comprehensive theory of risk management for illiquid trading instruments and exotics by examining the consequences of a quasi–static hedging strategy. In contrast to a static hedging strategy, in which an initial hedge once executed is kept in place for the life of the trade, and a dynamic hedging strategy, in which hedges are frequently adjusted over the life of the trade, a quasi–static hedging strategy utilizes hedge adjustments but tries to minimize the frequency. Almost all the examples studied in the framework introduced here take this minimization to the extreme by limiting hedge adjustments to at most one during the life of a trade. We examine the application of this approach to long–dated forwards, long–dated options and exotic options such as cliquet and barriers. The model we present for barriers is a new generation of the Derman–Ergener–Kani approach which combines the flexibility of the approach with a sizable increase in model independence.     

The Productivity Impact of IT Deployment: An Empirical Evaluation of ATM Introduction

The term 'IT paradox' has been widely used to describe the apparent failure of much economic research to discover significant productivity gains associated with IT investment. In part this has been ascribed to measurement problems associated with both IT inputs and with outputs in IT-intensive industries. The current paper seeks to circumvent these difficulties by taking the ATM as a clearly defined embodied IT application and then using anaugmented production function approach to isolate its productivity effectsacross a sample of UK building societies, over the period of the ATM'sdiffusion. The paper finds no support for the 'IT paradox' and reports large robust and statistically significant productivity gains associated with ATM introduction.