DURATION MOMENTS AND YIELD CURVE MOVEMENTS

In this paper we will analyze the relationship between the value and duration moments of a cash flow and movements in the yield curve. We will show that for changes in the yield curve which can be related to tⁿ , the 1st order changes in the net present value of a cash flow are linearly dependent on the n + lth duration moments, and that the 2nd order changes are dependent on the sum of duration moments of order 2 n + 1 and 2 n + 2. We will use this relationship to tilt tracking portfolios so as to protect them against specific changes in the yield curve.     

Significant Issues for the Future of Product Innovation

The value of a technology strategy has been increasingly discussed by R&D personnel and those involved in product development and business planning efforts. In this issue Albert Rubenstein and Americo Albala elevate this discussion by showing the importance of preparing a firm to compete by stressing the development of important, relevant technologies. Discovery and development must be channeled into areas that will be needed to support business initiatives likely to occur in the future. Albala stresses the importance of this change for the development of economies in nations that have been disappointed by the lack of success of importing technologies from more developed nations, while Rubenstein maintains that the pace of marketplace change requires a technology strategy in order to reduce the misapplication of scarce resources within the firm and the possibility of being blindsided by competitive developments. These essays continue a year-long series of contributions that the editor-in-chief solicited from members of the editorial board. Members were asked to reflect upon changes and opportunities that they see influencing our profession during the coming decade. Both of these short essays are designed to introduce new perspectives. It is not essential that you agree with the recommendations, but we hope that you are stimulated as you reflect on the issues they raise.     

MODELING THE TERM STRUCTURE FROM THE ON‐THE‐RUN TREASURY YIELD CURVE

We propose a new model to estimate the term structure of interest rates using observed on‐the‐run Treasury yields. The new model is an improvement over models that require a priori knowledge of the shape of the yield curve to estimate the term structure. The general form of the model is an exponential function that depends on the estimation of four parameters fit by nonlinear least squares and has straightforward interpretations. In comparing the proposed model with current yield‐curve‐smoothing models, we find that, for the data used, the proposed model does best overall in terms of pricing accuracy both in sample and out of sample. JEL classification: E43, G12     

Impact of the timing of receipt of an inherited explanation on auditors' analytical procedures judgements

The present study extends prior research relating to auditors’ analytical procedures (AP) processes in two ways. First, it examines whether the timing of receipt of an inherited explanation (before or after self‐generating explanations) affects auditors’ hypothesis generation. Second, responding to calls to address how the auditors’ performance of the earlier stages of the AP process affects their performance in later stages of that process ( Koonce, 1993 ; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy and Wright, 2000 ) the present study concurrently addresses the hypothesis generation, information search, hypothesis evaluation and final judgement stages of the AP process. Consistent with a facilitation effect, more non‐error explanations were generated by auditors initially inheriting a non‐error explanation. Further, consistent with a recency effect, the initial likelihood assessed for the inherited explanation was higher when it was received after self‐generation of alternatives. Despite these initial differences, the timing of the inherited explanation did not significantly affect the auditors’ information search, evaluation processes or outcome performance (in terms of cause selection). Results relating to the receipt of an inherited explanation were similar, except that significantly fewer subjects not inheriting an explanation selected a cause the same as the inherited explanation. These results suggest that although inheriting an explanation from management does affect the outcome of the AP process, it does not lead to fewer correct outcomes, and highlight the importance of examining the AP process in its entirety rather than in a piecemeal manner.     

VAR,ERROR CORRECTION AND PRETEST FORECASTS AT LONG HORIZONS

This paper focuses on the construction of forecasts over long horizons where a typical long-horizon forecast might span four years using 20 to 40 years’ data. It is argued that the presence of persistence in the form of unit or near-unit autoregressive roots poses substantial difficulties for long-horizon interval and point forecasting. These difficulties may not be overcome even by efficient pre-testing or model-selection procedures and might, in general, lead to point forecasts with large asymptotic root mean squared errors and undesirably wide prediction intervals.