Migration and employment interactions in a crisis context

This article analyses how a crisis impacts labour markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages between migration, the labour market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modelling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result of this study is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline.     

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.     

Electronic and in-person service quality of hybrid services

The service industries have experienced dramatic changes in service delivery format because of fast-paced innovation in information technology. Hybrid services involve service deliveries through conventional and technology-enabled environments, each of which is complementary and non-interchangeable. However, limited research has examined consumer behavior in response to a series of relevant service episodes in different channels at different points in time. In other words, how customers perceive service quality at each service encounter and how the cumulative effect of these perceptions influences customers’ overall service value assessment and satisfaction remain unclear. This study addresses this research gap by investigating the sequential influence of e-service quality on in-person service quality in a hybrid service format in which interpersonal and computer-mediated services coexist but at different points in time. Empirical analysis shows that e-service quality directly and positively affects in-person service quality, which fully mediates the effects of e-service quality on perceived value and customer satisfaction. The sequence of service encounters matters because in-person service quality perception has a stronger effect than e-service quality on customer metrics. Cumulative quality perceptions significantly influence perceived value and overall customer satisfaction. Theoretical and managerial implications are presented in the discussion.     

Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Water utility planning efforts are becoming increasingly difficult throughout the world. Located in a semi-arid region, Ciudad Juárez, Mexico is a fast growing municipality that faces both physical infrastructure and water supply constraints. This paper examines monthly water consumption in Ciudad Juárez utilizing a linear transfer function procedure (LTF). Analysis is carried out for per customer usage and for the total number of municipal water system accounts. Models estimated for both series are subjected to a series of simulation benchmark tests. Findings suggest that water consumption in Ciudad Juárez reacts quickly to changes in economic and weather conditions. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed. Per customer usage forecasts do not fare as well those for total customers relative to random walk benchmarks.Financial support for this research was provided by Southwest Center for Environmental Research Policy Grant W-04-03. Additional financial support was provided by El Paso Electric Company, Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso, and National Science Foundation Grant SES-0332001. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Cely Ronquillo, Brian Kelley, and Cesar Olivas. Econometric research assistance was provided by Marycruz De Leon and Irma Torres.     

近代东北区城市化与工业化相互作用的过程分析

20世纪初,东北地区一度发展成为我国最早的重化工业地域,同时城市化的水平位于全国前列.快速的工业化是东北区高速城市化的基础,同时殖民地产业布局地调整和优化又离不开城市化的支撑.吸取历史经验,对于当今振兴东北老工业基地具有深远的现实意义.     

MORGAN STANLEY ROUNDTABLE ON Capital Structure and Payout Policy

A group of distinguished finance academics and practitioners discuss a number of topical issues in corporate financial management: Is there such a thing as an optimal, or value‐maximizing, capital structure for a given company? What proportion of a firm's current earnings should be distributed to the firm's shareholders? And under what circumstances should such distributions take the form of stock repurchases rather than dividends? The consensus that emerges is that a company's financing and payout policies should be designed to support its business strategy. For growth companies, the emphasis is on preserving financial flexibility to carry out the business plan, which means heavy reliance on equity financing and limited payouts. But for companies in mature industries with few major investment opportunities, more aggressive use of debt and higher payouts can add value both by reducing taxes and controlling the corporate free cash flow problem. In such cases, both leveraged financing and cash distributions through dividends and stock buybacks signal management's commitment to its shareholders that the firm's excess cash will not be wasted on projects that produce low‐return growth that comes at the expense of profitability. As for the choice between dividends and stock repurchases, dividends provide a stronger commitment to pay out excess cash than open market repurchase programs. Stock buybacks, at least of the open market variety, preserve more flexibility for companies that want to be able to capitalize on unpredictable investment opportunities. But, as with the debt‐equity decision, there is an optimal level of financial flexibility: too little can mean lost investment opportunities, but too much can lead to overinvestment.     

The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war‐torn economy on the economy of a neighbouring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labour market, the production apparatus and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high‐skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labour market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long‐term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.     

东莞经济结构调整障碍及对策分析

本文分析东莞经济结构的运行特色和人们的用资行为与经营行为及其对经济结构调整的制约，以此为基础，探讨东莞经济结构调整的对策。一是加大政府投资，二是鼓励民间投资。     

Structure and Governance in Industrial Districts: Implications for Competitive Advantage

The existing research on industrial districts is fragmented, and yields conflicting advice for managers about the benefits and costs of locating in an industrial district. We resolve much of this ambiguity by synthesizing and integrating the existing research, and developing a typology of districts based on the continuous dimensions of need for coordination and centralization of control. In so doing, we elucidate why different types of industrial districts have different structures, and different competitive implications. We introduce four archetypes of industrial districts (based on extreme values of our two dimensions), and for each we discuss the benefits and costs of locating in the district, the sources of competitive advantage for members of the district vis‐à‐vis non‐members, and the sources of competitive advantage a district firm may gain over other members of the same district.     

Literacy Skills and Earnings: Race and Gender Differences

This study examines differences in returns to literacy skills on earnings of black and white men and women. Literacy skill is a composite measure of three scales: reading comprehension, document literacy (the ability to locate and use information in, say, tables and graphs), and mathematics proficiency. Using data from the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS), we estimate earnings determination models separately for each racial/gender group. Our findings show that the effect of literacy on earnings varies by race and gender. Literacy skills favorably rewarded black men relative to black women and white men and women, net of education and other relevant variables. More importantly, literacy completely explained the effect of a high school diploma and some college on earnings of black men. We conclude that the economic importance of literacy skills is particularly salient for less-educated black men.