Relative risk aversion, relative prudence and comparative statics under uncertainty: The case of (μ, σ)‐preferences

From the expected‐utility approach, relative risk aversion being smaller than one and relative prudence being smaller than two emerge as preference restrictions that fully determine the optimal responses of decisions under uncertainty to certain shifts in probability distributions. We characterize the magnitudes of relative risk aversion and relative prudence in terms of the two‐parameter, mean‐standard deviation approach. We demonstrate that this characterization is instrumental in obtaining comparative static results in the two‐parameter setting. We further relate our findings to the results in the expected‐utility framework.     

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances*

For reasons of political feasibility, emission trading systems may have to rely on free initial allocation of emission allowances in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects in dirty industries. Against the background of an emerging European‐wide emission trading system, we examine the trade‐off between such compensation and economic efficiency under output‐based and emissions‐based allocation rules. We show that the emissions‐based allocation rule is more costly than the output‐based rule in terms of maintaining output and employment in energy‐intensive industries. When the international allowance price increases, the inferiority of emissions‐based allocation vis‐à‐vis output‐based allocation becomes more pronounced, as emission subsidies drastically restrict efficiency gains from international trade in emission allowances.     

Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds

Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance and extend the analysis to include the relatively new measure of volatility timing. This is of particular relevance to our data set, as high levels of volatility persistence are prevalent in Australia. In addition we consider the stability, asymmetry and seasonality of the various performance and risk measures. A survivorship adjustment procedure is also employed in order to assess the impact of survivorship on selectivity, market timing and volatility timing performance.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade

Zusammenfassung Unerwartete Wechselkursschwankungen und das Wachstum des internationalen Handels. - Der Verfasser untersucht die oft zitierte These, die Wechselkursvariabilit?t habe den internationalen Handel beeintr?chtigt. Im Gegensatz zu früheren Arbeiten formuliert und sch?tzt er ein Modell mit zwei Gleichungen. Davon sch?tzt die erste die Bestimmungsgründe der Variabilit?t der realen Wechselkurse mit dem Ziel, zwischen den erwarteten und den unerwarteten Komponenten dieser Variabilit?t unterscheiden zu k?nnen. Die zweite ist eine Gleichung in reduzierter Form für die Bestimmungsgründe des Wachstums realer Exporte. Diese wird zum Testen der Hypothese benutzt, da? nur die unerwarteten Schwankungen der realen Wechselkurse das Wachstum der realen Exporte signifikant beeinflussen. Die Ergebnisse best?tigen diese Hypothese.

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Résumé La variabilité non-prévue des taux de change et l’accroissement du commerce international. - Dans cette étude l’auteur examine l’hypothèse souvent-citée que la variabilité des taux de change a empêché l’accroissement du commerce international. Contraire aux études antérieures, il formule et estime un modèle à deux équations. La première équation évalue les facteurs déterminants de la variabilité des taux de change réels pour différencier entre les éléments prévus et non-prévus de la variabilité des taux de change réels. La deuxième est une équation à forme réduite et contient les facteurs déterminants de l’accroissement des exportations réelles. Ce mod?le est utilisé pour vérifier l’hypothèse que seulement la variabilité non-prévue des taux de change réels a un effet significatif sur l’accroissement des exportations réelles. Les résultats confirment l’hypothèse.

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Resumen Variabilidad no anticipada de la tasa de cambio y el crecimiento del comercio international. - En este trabajo se investiga la muy citada hipótesis de que la variabilidad de la tasa de cambio ha inhibido el crecimiento del comercio internacional. A diferencia de trabajos previos, se formula y estima un modelo biecuacional. La primera ecuación estima las determinantes de la variabilidad de la tasa de cambio real (REER), con el fin de distinguir entre los componentes anticipados y no anticipados de la variabilidad de la REER. La segunda es una ecuación en forma reducida para las déterminantes del crecimiento real de las exportaciones. Se utiliza este modelo para llevar a cabo un test de la hipótesis de que sólo la variabilidad no anticipada de la REER afecta significativamente el crecimiento real del volumen de exportaciones. Los resultados indican que la variabilidad no anticipada de la REER ha inhibido el crecimiento de las exportaciones, mientras que la variabilidad anticipada no ha tenido efecto alguno.

     

Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions*

The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant.     

Factor Taxation, Income Distribution and Capital Market Integration

This paper addresses the optimal mix of capital and wage taxation when policymakers maximize the political support of workers and capitalists, subject to a fixed revenue requirement. Capital market integration increases the efficiency costs of a tax on capital but simultaneously changes the political equilibrium through its effect on the distribution of factor incomes. These distributional effects are directly opposed in the capital importing and the capital exporting region. While the capital tax rate will always be lowered in the capital importing region, the tax rate in the exporting country will rise when political resistance to market-induced changes in the distribution of income is sufficiently high.