Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo‐Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model

Increasing the inflation target in a New Keynesian (NK) model may require increasing, rather than decreasing, the nominal interest rate in the short run. We refer to this positive short‐run comovement between the nominal rates and inflation conditional on a nominal shock as Neo‐Fisherianism. We show that the NK model is more likely to be Neo‐Fisherian the more persistent is the change in the inflation target and the more flexible are prices. Neo‐Fisherianism is driven by the forward‐looking nature of the model. Modifications that make the framework less forward‐looking make it less likely for the model to exhibit Neo‐Fisherianism.     

The Information Content of Tax Expense for Firms Reporting Losses

We investigate whether management's decision regarding the recognition of the valuation allowance (VA) for deferred tax assets provides incremental information about the persistence of accounting losses. We introduce a classification scheme that assigns loss firm‐years into three categories based on whether management appears to have recognized a material change in the VA, and whether or not the firm has positive taxable income (e.g., a net operating loss). The results of our study show that our tax categories contain information about the persistence of accounting losses over the following three years beyond variables previously identified to predict loss persistence. This incremental information is consistent with management using private information about the firm's future prospects in setting the VA. Finally, we find that investors’ pricing of the VA varies with the saliency of the tax signal and the information environment of the firm.     

Audit Analytical Procedures: A Field Investigation*

Abstract. Analytical procedures have become an increasingly important part of financial statement auditing over the last 10 years. First recommended for audits by the Auditing Standards Board in 1978, analytical procedures are mandated for planning and overall review purposes by Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 56. In response to increased concerns about audit efficiency and effectiveness, analytical procedures are increasingly being used in place of and as a supplement to substantive tests of details. Despite their increased use, little is known about how analytical procedures are performed in practice. The purpose of this study is to describe how auditors perform analytical procedures at the planning, substantive testing, and overall review stages of the audit. To accomplish this, we conducted a series of interviews with 36 audit professionals at various levels of experience and responsibility (i.e., seniors, managers, and partners) representing all the U.S. Big Six accounting firms. The contributions of our study are threefold. First, by contributing to a more complete understanding of how analytical procedures are performed, we provide the basis for accounting researchers to identify current analytical procedure problems/issues and, thus, perform more relevant research. Second, we provide the Auditing Standards Board members with relevant information about current practice for their deliberations on revised guidance for analytical procedures. Third, we provide educators with a characterization of analytical procedures as performed in practice, thereby facilitating their classroom coverage of this important topic. Résumé. Depuis une dizaine d'années, les procédés analytiques jouent un rôle de plus en plus important dans la vérification des états financiers. D'abord recommandés en 1978 par l'Auditing Standards Board pour les vérifications, les procédés analytiques sont exigés par le Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) n° 56 pour la planification et l'examen global. Compte tenu des préoccupations accrues que soulèvent l'efficience et l'efficacité de la vérification, l'on fait de plus en plus appel aux procédés analytiques en remplacement et en complément des procédés de corroboration détaillés. Malgré cette utilisation croissante, le mode d'application concrète des procédés analytiques est peu connu. Les auteurs se sont donné pour but de décrire comment les vérificateurs appliquent les procédés analytiques aux étapes de planification, d'application des procédés de corroboration et d'examen global de la vérification. Pour y parvenir, ils ont procédé à une série d'entrevues avec 36 experts de la vérification possédant divers degrés d'expérience et assumant divers niveaux de responsabilités (premiers vérificateurs, chefs de groupe et associés), qui représentaient les six principaux cabinets d'experts comptables des États-Unis. L'étude contribue à l'avancement des connaissances de trois façons. Premièrement, en permettant de mieux comprendre comment les procédés analytiques sont appliqués, elle munit les chercheurs en comptabilité des éléments nécessaires au diagnostic des problèmes ou des questions actuellement soulevés par les procédés analytiques et, partant, à la réalisation de travaux de recherche plus pertinents. Deuxièmement, elle offre aux membres de l'Auditing Standards Board de l'information pertinente relative aux méthodes courantes afin d'alimenter les délibérations relatives à l'orientation à donner aux procédés analytiques. Troisièmement, elle munit les enseignants d'une définition des procédés analytiques tels qu'ils sont appliqués concrètement, ce qui facilitera l'étude de cette importante question en classe.     

Stimulating Housing Markets

We study temporary fiscal stimulus designed to support distressed housing markets by inducing demand from buyers in the private market. Using difference-in-differences and regression kink research designs, we find that the First-Time Homebuyer Credit increased home sales by 490,000 (9.8%), median home prices by $2,400 (1.1%) per standard deviation increase in program exposure, and the transition rate into homeownership by 53%. The policy response did not reverse immediately. Instead, demand comes from several years in the future: induced buyers were three years younger in 2009 than typical first-time buyers. The program's market-stabilizing benefits likely exceeded its direct stimulus effects.     

SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER

This study examines how smoke-free laws influence turnover among restaurant workers. The study uses a unique data set of payroll records of a franchisee of a national full-service restaurant chain operating 23 restaurants in the state of Arizona, a state where several communities have adopted smoke-free laws. Municipal smoke-free laws did not, on average, have a statistically significant effect on the probability of employee separation in the years after implementation. These results suggest that training costs associated with employee turnover would not rise for full-service restaurants in municipalities that adopt smoke-free laws. ( JEL I18, J63)     

Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns

We use option prices to estimate ex ante higher moments of the underlying individual securities’ risk‐neutral returns distribution. We find that individual securities’ risk‐neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are strongly related to future returns. Specifically, we find a negative (positive) relation between ex ante volatility (kurtosis) and subsequent returns in the cross‐section, and more ex ante negatively (positively) skewed returns yield subsequent higher (lower) returns. We analyze the extent to which these returns relations represent compensation for risk and find evidence that, even after controlling for differences in co‐moments, individual securities’ skewness matters.     

Safety of the U.S. food supply: consumer concerns and behaviour

To examine consumer concern about food safety, identify characteristics of those most concerned, and determine behavioural responses to concerns, we used mailed questionnaires to survey a random sample of 630 adults. Eighty-eight percent of respondents were very or somewhat concerned about safety of the food supply. Subjects perceived greatest likelihood of harm from chemicals and lowest likelihood of harm from bacterial contamination. Relative to other concerns about food such as cost or taste, food safety ranked low. Because the concern was across all ages, education levels, genders, and places of residence, we were unable to define a type of person most likely to be concerned about food safety. Less than half the subjects had changed dietary behaviour in response to food safety concerns. Foods reduced or eliminated from the diet most often were meats, fruits, eggs and vegetables. The findings indicate that consumers need risk assessment education and help in making food choices that do not compromise diet quality.