Income distribution and inequality measurement: The problem of extreme values

We examine the statistical performance of inequality indices in the presence of extreme values in the data and show that these indices are very sensitive to the properties of the income distribution. Estimation and inference can be dramatically affected, especially when the tail of the income distribution is heavy, even when standard bootstrap methods are employed. However, use of appropriate semiparametric methods for modelling the upper tail can greatly improve the performance of even those inequality indices that are normally considered particularly sensitive to extreme values.     

Robust adaptive rate-optimal testing for the white noise hypothesis

A new test is proposed for the weak white noise null hypothesis. The test is based on a new automatic selection of the order for a Box–Pierce (1970) test statistic or the test statistic of Hong (1996). The heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) critical values from Lee (2007) are used, allowing for estimation of the error term. The data-driven order selection is tailored to detect a new class of alternatives with autocorrelation coefficients which can be o(n^−1/2)$o\left(n^{-1/2}\right)$ provided there are sufficiently many of such coefficients. A simulation experiment illustrates the good statistical properties of the test both under the weak white noise null and the alternative.     

Does R&D,human capital and FDI matter for TFP in OECD countries?

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the interplay between research and development (R&D), human capital (HC), foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) in OECD countries. We divide the sample into two sub-groups; the European and the non-European states so as to account for underlying country heterogeneity. The analysis follows a panel data approach over the period 1995–2015, taking into account the modelling on non-stationarity, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics with a panel VAR. Both R&D and HC have a positive effect on TFP, whilst FDI has a positive and significant effect only in the case of non-European countries. Moreover, the contribution of R&D is higher than that of HC and FDI in all cases. Thus, based on these findings, policymakers should design and implement policies to increase resources invested in R&D, with a consistent ongoing spending review, to attract foreign direct investment, especially for the majority of the European and some of the non-European countries and to improve education system on a more productive innovation and research base.     

Les finances solidaires et l'économie sociale en roumanie: une réponse de «proximités» à la régionalisation d'une économie en transition?

La Roumanie apparaît en Europe centrale et orientale comme un territoire d'expérimentation d'une forme particulière d'économie sociale liant coopératives et organisations «not‐for‐profit». En transition économique et sociale, la Roumanie est également un pays en transition territoriale dont les systèmes de financements locaux ont quitté leur approche centralement planifiée, pour rejoindre un secteur financier solidaire dont les Instituts de Microfinance (IMFs) sont les principaux acteurs. La question à laquelle cet article tente d'apporter quelques éléments de réponse est celle du rôle de la finance solidaire locale dans la soutenabilité des transitions socio‐économiques territoriales en cours. Il s'agit d'envisager une économie humaine au sein de laquelle les conditions dignes de vie, nous amène à envisager un modèle particulier d'économie conviviale située à partir des outils conviviaux des finances solidaires locales.     

Assessing productivity changes in UK hospitals reflecting technology and input prices

In this study Malmquist productivity indexes are used to evaluate the performance of acute hospitals in the UK over the period after the introduction of the internal market in the National Health Service in 1991. The indexes are computed using nonparametric programming, known as Data Envelopment Analysis, and they are decomposed into multiple component measures to give insights into the trends in hospital performance. Overall it is found that productivity regressed in the year after the reforms but progressed thereafter so that overall there was a net progress both as far as the inputs and costs are concerned. Productivity progress is mainly due to overall efficiency progress, which in turn is mostly attributed to allocative efficiency improvements. Technical change resulted in a small reduction in the amount of inputs used but also at higher production costs, because of a worsening in the match between input mixes and relative input prices. However, it is suggested that the gains in productivity are not high enough to argue that the internal market has had a significant impact on productivity. Finally, it is argued that the methodologies employed here can be a valuable evaluative and managerial tool in the context of the new NHS reforms about to be introduced.     

Using Elasticities to Derive Optimal Income Tax Rates

This paper derives optimal income tax formulas using compensated and uncompensated elasticities of earnings with respect to tax rates. A simple formula for the high income optimal tax rate is obtained as a function of these elasticities and the thickness of the top tail of the income distribution. In the general non-linear income tax problem, this method using elasticities shows precisely how the different economic effects come into play and which are the key relevant parameters in the optimal income tax formulas of Mirrlees. The optimal non-linear tax rate formulas are expressed in terms of elasticities and the shape of the income distribution. These formulas are implemented numerically using empirical earning distributions and a range of realistic elasticity parameters.     

Testing for Regime Changes in Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper examines whether the efficiency market hypothesis for the Greek sovereign debt holds. As in Blanco et al. (2005) we test the theoretical equivalence of credit default swap (CDS) and spreads that dictates a CI relationship between the two. The main innovation of the present analysis is the use of a threshold vector error-correction (TVECM) model, thus allowing thresholds within the sample covering the period 1990 to 2010. Moreover, by employing this methodology we are able to evaluate the degree and dynamics of transaction costs resulting from various events due to external market imperfections but also domestic factors. The main hypothesis we test is to what extent spreads and CDS are indeed integrated that may result in an efficient and integrated segniorage capital market. Our findings support the gradual integration hypothesis. We find that spreads and CDS are cointegrated, though threshold effects are also revealed in terms of events that have impacted on markets.     

INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Drawing on the author's work, this lecture presents evidence on U.S. income and wealth inequality. It presents series for top income and wealth shares, and the distribution of economic growth by income groups. It discusses the mechanisms behind the evolution of U.S. income and wealth inequality from historical and comparative perspectives. It analyzes the role of public policy and in particular taxation in the evolution of inequality. (JEL D31, F66, J24)     

Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

How do telecommunications reforms affect labour market arrangements? Evidence from Central and Western Europe

This paper exploits variations in the timing of telecommunications reforms across Europe to investigate the relationship between the rise of alternative work arrangements and the emergence of the Internet. We evaluate whether sectors that are technologically more dependent on information and communication technologies (ICT) experienced disproportionately larger changes in their employment outcomes after telecommunications reforms were introduced. Our main results point to a disproportionate increase in total employment, part‐time work and home‐based work among ICT‐dependent sectors after the implementation of telecommunications reforms. These results suggest that telecommunications reforms affected labour market arrangements by fostering the adoption of ICT. The results are robust to several specifications.