Scaling models for the severity and frequency of external operational loss data

According to Basel II criteria, the use of external data is indispensable to the implementation of an advanced method for calculating operational risk capital. This article investigates how the severity and frequencies of external losses are scaled for integration with internal data. We set up an initial model designed to explain the loss severity by taking into account potential selection bias in the external data. Estimation results show that many variables have significant power in explaining the loss amount. We use them to develop a normalization formula. We develop a zero-inflated count-data model to scale the loss frequency. We compute an operational VaR and we conduct out-of-sample backtesting.     

Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns

What are the equilibrium features of a dynamic financial market in which traders care about their reputation for ability? We modify a standard sequential trading model to include traders with career concerns. We show that this market cannot be informationally efficient: there is no equilibrium in which prices converge to the true value, even after an infinite sequence of trades. We characterize the most revealing equilibrium of this game and show that an increase in the strength of the traders' reputational concerns has a negative effect on the extent of information that can be revealed in equilibrium but a positive effect on market liquidity.     

Dynamics of fine wine and asset prices: evidence from short- and long-run co-movements

This article examines short- and long-term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012. We do not consider the price index (LIV-EX 100 or 500), as is typically undertaken in previous studies, but rather examine the auction price series of the world’s most traded wine-vintage pairs (5 Bordeaux first growth, 8 Bordeaux second growth, 5 Burgundy, 3 Rhone, 4 Italian, 5 Californian, 1 Australian and 1 Portuguese). A global equity index is also included using the Morgan Stanley Capital International World. Cointegration procedures, the Granger non-causality test, and ECM are used to analyse short- and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short-term causality for certain wines. Moreover, the findings indicate short-run causality between the wines themselves, revealing a leader (exogenous) or follower (endogenous) status of certain fine wines in price dynamics, and also long-run causality for endogenous wines. This approach is relevant to portfolio diversification strategies and allows price movements to be anticipated more accurately than using an index approach.     

Toward a North American Security Perimeter? Assessing the trade,FDI, and welfare impacts of liberalizing 9/11 security measures

This paper examines the trade, FDI, and welfare impacts of (liberalizing) 9/11 security measures at the Canada–US border. First, the study provides econometric estimates of the impact of post 9/11 security measures on bilateral (US–Canada) trade flows. Second, we compute sectoral tariff rates “equivalent” to the 9/11 security measures using these econometric estimates together with a three-region nine-sector general equilibrium model. Finally, we assess for both the Canadian and the US economies: 1) the (general equilibrium) impacts on trade, FDI, and welfare, of (liberalising) the 9/11 US security measures and 2) the economic impacts of a change of security paradigm toward a North American Security Perimeter within a Customs Union that would liberalize the Canadian and US 9/11 security measures at the Canada–US border and shift them at the external security perimeter.     

On the possibility of reasonable consistent majoritarian choice: Some positive results

Strictly Majoritarian Social Choice Functions (SMSCFs) are such that the choice on an agenda can be defined with the knowledge of the simple majority relation on the agenda as the sole information. The possibility for SMSCFs to satisfy both the General Pareto condition and choice consistency conditions strong enough to be meaningful has been doubted. Here we exhibit three reasonable SMSCFs that do both. One of them can be interpreted as eliminating from the agenda all alternatives one can suspect of being Pareto dominated by some other. We compare some of their properties with those of the SMSCFs already known in the literature.     

A Worldwide Survey of Business Ethics in the 1990s

This unique collection of reports encompasses a wide range of challenges and activities of business ethics in most parts of the world. In the introduction, after a brief explanation of the sixfold questionnaire and its assumptions, I try to highlight a number of striking features contained in these reports, which may help to delineate the state-of-the-art of business ethics at national and regional levels. As a result of this international comparison, the following features deserve particular attention: the relevance of semantics, corruption, leadership, corporate responsibilities, the need for case studies, business ethics as a social institution, and the question as to how important international issues really are.     

The dynamics of ex-ante weighted spread: an empirical analysis

We model the evolution of the ex-ante weighted spread (EWS) embedded in an open Limit Order Book (LOB) and investigate the impact of observed market-related variables on the spread. Our modeling involves decomposing the joint distribution of the weighted spread into simple and interpretable distributions. Our main results have several implications: (i) EWS features high persistence in autocorrelation; (ii) lower-level LOB remains liquid even after a high trade imbalance; (iii) lower- and higher-level LOB react to temporal spread change and trade imbalance in different ways; and (iv) both trade durations and quote durations have seasonality effects. We also show, through a simple high frequency trading exercise, that the use of the model can be economically important. Further, our model provides an estimation of market resilience.