A Conceptual Model of the Household's Housing Decision–Making Process: The Economic Perspective

At some stage in every household's family life cycle, the household is likely to make certain decisions with regard to its housing environment. Although the household's housing decisions essentially comprise the decision to move, and the selection of a new residence, the process from which these decisions are derived is very complex because varying circumstances could produce a multitude of different housing decisions. Due to the sheer complexity of the household's housing decision–making process, researchers have generally focused on individual decision–making stages rather than on the process as a whole. This paper therefore attempts to conceptualize the entire household housing decision–making process using theoretical concepts from the economic perspective, and then tests the conceptual model with empirical evidence drawn from the moving population within the multi–racial society in Singapore.     

A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

Book Reviews

Ruth McVey (ed.), Southeast Asian Capitalists, Ithaca: Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1992, pp. 218.

Joan Hardjono (ed.), Indonesia: Resources, Ecology and Environment, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1991, pp. xvi + 262. Cloth: A$50; £25.

Chris Dixon, South East Asia in the World-Economy: A Regional Geography, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, pp. xv + 281. Paper: A$29.95; Cloth: npg.

Kym Anderson (ed.), New Silk Roads: East Asia and World Textile Markets, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, for the Trade and Development Series, National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, 1992, pp. xxvi + 24. A559.50.

K. S. Sandhu et al. (comps), The ASEAN Reader, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992, pp. xxvi + 582.

Kim Seung Jin and Suh Jang-Won (eds), Cooperation in Small and Medium-Scale Industries in ASEAN, Kuala Lumpur: Asian and Pacific Development Centre, 1992, pp. xiv + 389.     

Water as an investment: liquid yet illiquid!

The water industry is in great need of further large investments to address existing severe water shortages worldwide which requires the participation of private sector investors. This industry is heavily infrastructure based and is therefore saddled with fixed assets-in-place or illiquid assets. This exposes the industry to what is termed as ‘illiquidity risk’, and hence, investors in this industry should be compensated for bearing this risk with an appropriate return premium (i.e. extra return). In this study, we provide evidence as to whether illiquidity risk indeed significantly affects returns in this industry. We examine the case of all 76 firms that compose the five major global water indices. After controlling for other factors that impact on returns, our results suggest that asset illiquidity is positively associated with stock returns. Specifically, water firms with a larger proportion of illiquid assets-in-place are observed to have greater stock returns than those with a smaller proportion of illiquid assets. Our results have important implications for the financing of water-related projects particularly those which involve the participation of investors from the private sector.     

Using a dual-frame design to improve phone surveys on political attitudes: developing a weighting strategy for limited external information in Hong Kong

Quality & Quantity - In recent years, rapid increases in mobile phone ownership and decreases in landline users have led to potential biases in landline phone survey estimations. Mobile-only...     

Enhancing value for Chinese shoppers: The contribution of store and customer characteristics

This study tested the relationships between store and customer characteristics with perceived value and customer loyalty in retailing in China. Survey data were collected from shoppers in department stores (n=200) and supermarkets (n=200) in the tier 2 coastal city of Tianjin. Data for each type of store were analysed separately using structural models. In supermarkets, value was predicted by quality and price, but for department stores, only the customer orientation of the store was significant, suggesting that customers seek different shopping experiences in each context. In each case, value mediated the links to loyalty and, for supermarkets, choice of merchandise and consumer time pressure demonstrated direct links to loyalty. The paper discusses the implications of the findings, and concludes with possible future research.     

FDI Location and the Relevance of Spatial Linkages: Evidence from Provincial and Industry FDI in China

In this study both aggregate and industry‐level foreign direct investment (FDI) data are employed to investigate the spatial dependence of FDI hosts. The analysis contributes to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneous spatial correlation of FDI in different industries. Using more comprehensive FDI data across multiple industries and multiple provinces in China from 1999 to 2007, the results show a significant spatial correlation among provinces. Aggregate FDI tends to be regional trade platform oriented indicating neighboring provinces become competitors for FDI. In contrast, results based on industry‐level provincial FDI show stronger support for vertical or complex vertical FDI.     

Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth.     

BUYERS,SELLERS, AND MIDDLEMEN: VARIATIONS ON SEARCH‐THEORETIC THEMES

We study exchange that is bilateral but indirect—it involves chains of intermediaries, or middlemen—in markets with frictions. These frictions include search and bargaining problems. We show how, and how many, intermediaries might get involved in a chain, and how bargaining with one depends on upcoming negotiations with those downstream. The roles of buyers, sellers, money, and prices are discussed, allowing us to clarify some neglected connections between different branches of search theory. Pursuing one such connection, with monetary economics, we show how bubbles can emerge in intermediation, even with fully rational agents and perfect foresight.