Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting

This paper compares the forecast performance of automatic leading indicators (ALIs) and macroeconometric structural models (MESMs) commonly used by non-academic macroeconomists. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. ALIs are found to outperform MESMs for one-period-ahead forecasts, but this superiority disappears as the forecast horizon increases. It is also found that ALIs involve greater uncertainty in choosing indicators, mixing data frequencies and utilizing unrestricted VARs. Two ways of reducing the uncertainty are explored: (i) give theory priority in choosing indicators, and include theory-based disequilibrium shocks in the indicator sets; and (ii) reduce the VARs by means of the general-to-specific modeling procedure.     

An Input–Output Analysis of the Philippine BPO Industry

This paper provides a profile of the Philippine business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, makes comparisons with India and other BPO providers, and summarises the results of an input−output analysis of the Philippine BPO industry's inter-sectoral linkages and its potential impact on compensation and employment. The input−output analysis shows that the BPO industry is not a key sector in terms of stimulating production in other sectors of the Philippine economy. Growth in the sector's revenues, however, can have a significant impact on compensation and employment. If appropriate policies are enacted and human capital improved, it is estimated that the Philippine BPO sector may become an important employment-generating sector.     

Determinants of structural change in food exports from developing countries

Over the past three decades, there has been a rapid expansion of processed food exports, replacing traditional agriculture exports such as coffee and tea. However, this development and its policy implications have received little attention in the literature. This paper provides an overview of key characteristics and growth patterns of processed food exports in developing countries. The determinants of structural change towards processed food exports in developing countries are examined using panel data econometric analysis. The results suggest that trade policy openness, large domestic markets, good macroeconomic management—especially in terms of price stability—adequate financial support and infrastructure are the key factors influencing the shift towards processed food exports.