Earnings management and abnormal returns: Evidence from the 1970–1972 Price Control Regulations

We examine the association between abnormal returns and earnings management in the context of price control regulations to test the construct validity of the earnings management model. Abnormal returns are used as a market–based measure, and discretionary accruals are employed to measure earnings management. Our results support the hypotheses that (1) price control regulations affect firms' security prices negatively, (2) firms make income–decreasing discretionary accruals to increase the likelihood of price increase approval, and (3) firms that are affected most negatively by the regulations manage earnings more aggressively. We conclude that the earnings management model we use in this study is capable of predicting opportunistic discretionary accruals.     

Substance, Form and PFI Contracts

The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) was launched by the United Kingdom Government in 1992 in order to encourage the private sector in the UK to become more involved in public sector development projects. A key theme of the initiative was that the public should receive 'value for money'. This article investigates the accounting issue as to whether or not the private or the public sector should record any property related to PFI projects on balance sheet. It argues that although both HM Treasury and the Accounting Standards Board (ASB) might agree on the accounting principles, the practical impact is that in order for related properties to stay off the public sector's balance sheet, substantial risk needs to be transferred to the private sector. As a consequence of this, the objective of providing value for money to the public may not be achieved.     

Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds

Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance and extend the analysis to include the relatively new measure of volatility timing. This is of particular relevance to our data set, as high levels of volatility persistence are prevalent in Australia. In addition we consider the stability, asymmetry and seasonality of the various performance and risk measures. A survivorship adjustment procedure is also employed in order to assess the impact of survivorship on selectivity, market timing and volatility timing performance.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

The Debt/Equity Swap in Latin America– In Whose Interest?

This paper presents the basic analytics of a debt/equity swap and illustrates the concept with a detailed example of American Express Bank's swap transactions that began in 1986 and have resulted in construction of seven hotels in Mexico during the course of the swap agreement. The economics of the swap are presented from the lending bank's view, from the foreign direct investor's view, and from the borrowing country's view. It is concluded that: swaps offer net benefits to the borrower country when additional investment is generated (from the swap transaction itself and/or from encouraging further investment as a result of the swap policy); they offer net benefits to the lender when future loan servicing prospects are poor and viable investment opportunities exist; and they offer net benefits to the direct investor when the cost of financing the investment through the swap is less than for alternative financing sources.
The analytical framework presented here allows the bank lender to formally compare alternatives of holding impaired LDC loans on its books, selling the loans in the secondary market, trading the loans for loans from another country, and swapping the loans for equity investments in the borrowing country. It similarly allows the government policymaker to compare the relevant economic costs and benefits of swaps, so that better swap policies can be developed.     

Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions*

The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant.