Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992–2004. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on over-the-counter option prices to characterize more precisely the distribution of market expectations; (ii) redefining interventions in terms of events as they tend to come in clusters. Moreover, in order to deal with the features of the data (small sample size, non-standard distribution), we use bootstrap tests.We show that interventions have a significant impact on the mean expectation (the forward rate). The results are more ambiguous for variance. Additionally, we find that the effect of interventions on skewness is significant, robust to different definitions of skewness, and consistent with the direction of interventions. On the contrary, our results clearly show that kurtosis is not affected by interventions. We finally show that: (i) coordination increases effectiveness of interventions; (ii) results are not altered when controlling for other economic and political news.     

对外贸易评价体系的构建及我国对外贸易关系现状评析

通过运用新古典经济学的一般方法，同时采纳制度经济学中有关贸易的研究方法，并结合国际贸易理论的新发展，试图建立一个具有一般性的对外贸易评价体系。该体系包含了商品交易三个层次中的六大指标，并力图合理地描述一国对外贸易的状况。同时应用这一对外贸易评价体系分析了我国的对外贸易关系现状，并得出了我国的对外贸易状况不容乐观的基本结论。     

基于Flexsim的社区蔬菜直销配送流程仿真优化研究

文章以乌鲁木齐沙依巴克区社区蔬菜直销配送流程为仿真对象,运用Flexsim仿真软件对其进行模拟,对配送流程涉及到的关键设备利用率、人员空闲率等数据比较分析,提出社区蔬菜直销配送流程合理的运营模式。     

Financial liberalization and sectoral reallocation of capital in South Africa

We examine the impact of financial reforms on efficient reallocation of capital within and between sectors in South Africa using firm-level panel data for the period 1991–2008. The measure of efficient allocation of capital is based on the Tobin’s Q. We find that financial reforms are associated with improvements in within-sector, but not between-sector allocation of capital. These results imply that for South Africa to unleash the potential for take-off that is often associated with reallocation of resources from the primitive to modern sectors, reforms that focus beyond the financial sector are necessary. While more research is necessary to determine what would fully constitute such additional reforms, our analysis shows that reforms that improve the quality of economic institutions may be a step in the right the direction.     

论浏阳“花炮经济”之科学发展与政府行为

笔者曾从“过度竞争”、“安全管制”、“二次创业”、“工艺学科”四个角度，对聚集经济形态下的浏阳花炮经济之科学发展作了系统性剖析（《特区经济》第188期），并充分肯定了当地政府在经济管理方面良好的驾驭能力。值得更深一步研究的是，如何解读一个成熟经济圈内政府行为的生产力水平？     

Clarifying the Relationship between Involvement Variables and Advertising Effectiveness among Young People

Previous research has indicated the need for an in-depth investigation of the role of involvement variables in advertising information processing among young people, in view of the unsuitability of existing adult persuasion models for a young population, the inadequate consideration of involvement variables among young people and the unique characteristics of this population. This study examined the effects of advertising involvement and product involvement on advertising effectiveness among young people, using a quantitative study of 252 4–15-year olds. Results show that advertising involvement and product involvement had a positive direct effect on ad effectiveness. In addition, all endogenous variables—subjective product knowledge, peer and parent influence and age—had an indirect effect on ad effectiveness, via advertising involvement and product involvement. Interestingly, subjective product knowledge and peer influence had no direct effect on ad effectiveness, but rather only an indirect effect. This study presents a more accurate depiction of the complexity of the process and shows that advertising involvement and product involvement contribute to a better understanding of the process among young people.     

无界时滞中立型系统(非Razumikhin型)的稳定性

本文利用 Liapunov 函数法,建立无界时滞线性和非线性中立型系统(非 Razumikhin 型)稳定性的简单判据。     

张肇达:摇滚东方时尚

长风当铮,大音再起. 一场新的时尚摇滚就在这位时装设计师的心中澎湃. 张肇达,已经让人们习惯于每年来一场时尚的巅峰体验.     

Incomplete contract, bargaining and optimal divisional structure

When complete contracting is not possible, allocating control structure becomes the second-best arrangement. This paper analyzes the design of optimal divisional structure within an organization where ex post bargaining between the potential divisional managers is possible. In much the same light as Aghion and Tirole (J Political Econ 105(1):1?C29, 1997), we study the control problem in the context of search for projects. Our model shows that when the managers cannot bargain with one another, internal integration is preferred to internal separation. Where bargaining is possible, formal divisional structure defines both the ex post bargaining position of the two managers and their incentive to search ex ante. When the managers tend to arrive at a more favorable project to the principal via bargaining, the general leader of a firm may want to choose separation instead to increase the probability of bargaining, as the symmetrical incentive requires both managers to search and get informed.     

证券法上的民事责任功能研究

我国证券市场在短短十几年的时间内,在募集资金、推动国有大中型企业改制、优化资源配置等方面发挥了不可替代的重要作用.但不容乐观的是伴随着证券市场的发展各种违法违规现象在不断发生.尽管我国对证券违法行为明令禁止,并对严重的违法行为加以行政处罚甚至刑事制裁,然而证券市场上的违法行为仍然禁而不止.究其原因,除了管理层对证券市场发展的总体政策摇摆不定,监管者对违法行为处理不力等因素外,证券法上未建立完善的民事责任制度是重要的原因.本文从证券法上的民事责任功能的探讨入手,阐述了证券法上的民事责任具有的功能是证券刑事责任、行政责任所不能替代的原因,进而论证了建立完善的证券民事责任的必要性.