A Practical Framework for the Analysis of Social Security Reform

‘When I use a word’, Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it lo mean — neither more nor less’. (Through the Looking Glass, Ch. 6)     

The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists

This paper presents a transaction-level empirical analysis of the trading activities of New York Stock Exchange specialists. The main findings of the analysis are the following. Adjustment lags in inventories vary across stocks, and are in some cases as long as one or two months. Decomposition of specialist trading profits by trading horizon shows that the principal source of these profits is short term. An analysis of the dynamic relations among inventories, signed order flow, and quote changes suggests that trades in which the specialist participates have a higher immediate impact on the quotes than trades with no specialist participation.     

ON MEASURING THE EFFECT OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON REAL GNP GROWTH

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between inflationuncertainty and total output. To properly specify an estimatingequation, we investigate the time series properties of two frequentlyused measures of inflation uncertainty. We fail to reject thehypothysis that each series has a unit root. However, the uncertaintymeasures are not cointegrated with output and relative oil prices.This means that the proper specification is in terms of differences.With this specification we find that an increase in inflationuncertainty growth reduces real GNP growth but, unlike earlierwork, we find that this effect is temporary. It is also unlikelythat an inflation uncertainty shock on its own could producea recession.     

An Analysis of the Acquisition of Some Consumer Competencies Among Adolescents

Recent public policy discussions have focused on the role and influences of television, school, and family in teaching young people various desirable and undesirable consumer-related cognitions and behaviors. This research provides a theoretical and empirical basis useful in resolving such issues. The study examined the influences of television, family, school and peers on the acquisition of specific consumer skills that contribute to the individual's competency and proficiency as a consumer in the marketplace.     

Beatrice: A Study in the Creation and Destruction of Value

This paper chronicles the history of the Beatrice company from its founding in 1891 as a small creamery, through its growth by acquisition into a diversified consumer and industrial products firm, and its subsequent leveraged buyout and sell-off. The paper analyzes the value consequences the firm's acquisition and divestiture policies, its organizational strategy, and its governance. The analysis sheds light on a number of issues in organization theory, strategy, and corporate finance, including the sources of value in diversifying aquisitions, the cost of over-centralization and weak corporate governance, and the mechanisms of value creation in the market for corporate control.     

Stock Returns,Real Activity,and the Trust Question

Periodic antitrust attacks on corporations may have influenced stock prices. For the period 1904 to 1944, each antitrust case filed is associated with a 0.5 to 1.9 percent drop of the Dow, and each unexpected case with even larger drops. Other aspects of antitrust besides actual filings may help account for other movements, in particular the 1929 Crash. Historical evidence bears on the question of whether antitrust is exogenous and also links antitrust and the “corporation problem.” These results illustrate the sorts of real factors aside from changes in concurrent output that may account for stock price volatility.