Some cumulative logit models for panel-data analysis: an application to a dynamic analysis of personal efficacy

This paper introduces novel cumulative logit models for the panel-data analysis of transitions among ordered states of a polytomous dependent variable. The models differ from conventional cumulative logit models in that they can distinguish between covariate effects on the odds of having an upward transition and covariate effects on the odds of having a downward transition in the ordered states of the dependent variable. The new models are applied to panel data on personal efficacy and are used to identify asymmetric patterns in the effects of divorce and unemployment on changes in the level of personal efficacy. The effects of the two events on increasing the odds of having a downward transition are shown to be greater than their effects on decreasing the odds of having an upward transition. Some distinct characteristics of the effects of each event are also reported.     

INTERTEMPORAL COMPLEMENTARITY AND OPTIMALITY: A STUDY OF A TWO‐DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM*

We study the underlying structure of the two‐dimensional dynamical system generated by a class of dynamic optimization models that allow for intertemporal complementarity between adjacent periods, but preserve the time‐additively separable framework of Ramsey models. Specifically, we identify conditions under which the results of the traditional Ramsey‐type theory are preserved even when the intertemporal independence assumption is relaxed. Local analysis of this theme has been presented by Samuelson (Western Economic Journal 9 (1971), 21–26). We establish global convergence results and relate them to the local analysis, by using the mathematical theory of two‐dimensional dynamical systems. We also relate the local stability property of the stationary optimal stock to the differentiability of the optimal policy function near the stationary optimal stock, by using the Stable Manifold Theorem.     

Stability of stochastic optimal growth models: a new approach

The paper proposes an Euler equation technique for analyzing the stability of differentiable stochastic programs. The main innovation is to use marginal reward directly as a Foster-Lyapunov function. This allows us to extend known stability results for stochastic optimal growth models, both weakening hypotheses and strengthening conclusions.     

International spillovers of R&D and marginal social returns

This study analyzes marginal social and private returns of R&D investment through the impact of international spillovers of R&D stocks. We compare the marginal social with marginal private returns using data of 27 OECD and EU countries from 1995 to 2008. We consider two channels of R&D spillovers: embodied in trade flows and disembodied by bilateral technological proximity. We find that marginal social returns on R&D are much larger than the marginal private returns for R&D‐intensive countries, in the embodied spillover channel. We also find that the embodied spillover channel through import flows is more important than the disembodied channel.     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

On the cost-reducing effects of embodied technical progress: a panel study of the steel industry in Japan

To explicitly explain the cost-reducing effects of technical progress experienced by each firm, we assume that technical progress, namely, the prevalence of particular equipment, can be expressed by a function of logarithmic physical capital. Regarding the technology cost structure, we propose a modified dynamic cost function model that consists of the above equation, the translog variable cost equation containing technical progress as one of the factors, and Euler equations with respect to physical and research and development capital stocks. Using data on eight firms in the Japanese electric-furnace steel industry for the period 1970–1998, the model was empirically validated using the generalized method of moments. An elasticity of production cost with respect to technical progress showed a cost-reducing effect. This fact was influenced by the type of product and the extent of each firm’s R&D. Also derived from this model is one reasonable phenomenon of business-cyclically changing the use of endogenous capacity. This economic information supports the appropriateness of the above model, including the assumption of transforming technical progress into an endogenous variable, and the methods of analysis.     

A dynamic two country Heckscher–Ohlin model with non-homothetic preferences

We examine the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model that allows for preferences to be non-homothetic. We show that the model has a continuum of steady state equilibria under free trade, with the initial conditions determining which equilibrium will be attained. We establish conditions under which a static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem will hold in the steady state, and also conditions for a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem to hold. If both goods are normal, each country will have a unique autarkic steady state, and all steady state equilibria are saddle points. We also consider the case in which one good is inferior, and show that this can lead to multiple autarkic steady states, violations of the static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem in the steady state. Furthermore, there may exist steady state equilibria that Pareto dominate other steady states. These steady states will be unstable if discount factors are the same in each country, although they may exhibit dynamic indeterminacy if discount factors differ.     

Necessary conditions for admissibility of matrix linear estimators in a multivariate linear model

This article provides necessary conditions for the admissibility of matrix linear estimators of an estimable parameter matrix linear function under two kinds of quadratic matrix loss functions in a multivariate linear model following a family of matrix normal distributions, where the covariance matrix associated is completely unknown. Further it is demonstrated that if a more concrete condition supplied for one of the subdivided conditions is satisfied, then the special condition concerning the Stein problem is necessary for the admissibility of the kind of estimators under each of the loss functions.     

Long-Run Effects of Monetary Expansion in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the long-run effects of monetary expansion by introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into one of the basic models of endogenous growth. In our model, the real side of the economy consists of two production sectors, one of which produces a final good that can be used either for consumption or for investment and the other produces new human capital. Both sectors use physical and human capital under constant returns to scale technologies. We first characterize the balanced-growth equilibrium and then examine how a rise in money growth affects the relevant variables, such as the long-term growth rate and the relative prices.