Estimating the Probability of Informed Trading

Using a new empirical model, I estimate the probability of trades being generated by privately informed traders. Inference is drawn on a trade‐by‐trade basis using data samples from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The modeling setup facilitates in‐depth analysis of the estimated probability of informed trading at the intraday level and for stocks with different levels of trading activity. The most important empirical results are: (a) the intradaily pattern of the inferred probability of informed trading is highly correlated with the intradaily pattern of observed quoted spreads, (b) differences in the magnitude of quoted spreads across volume categories are not exclusively related to differences in the level of informed trading, and (c) private information is incorporated faster in the quotes for high‐volume stocks than in the quotes for low‐volume stocks.     

Selected Economic Analysis at the Antitrust Division: The Year in Review

Of the many activitiesof the Antitrust Division of theU.S. Department of Justice, we havesummarized some that raise interestingeconomic issues. We describe recentimprovements in the methodology to beused in ``coordinated effects' analysisof mergers. We also discuss four casesbrought by the DOJ that raise issues ofmarket definition, the influence ofcommon partial ownership of competitors,and the effects of fringe suppliers inconstraining collusion by large firms.     

Broadband Demand Analysis for Network Building

An increase of broadband demand is forecasted by transitional methods that consider the effect of this increase through many factors, such as customer requirement diversification, and new service introduction and deployment under competition. Broadband demand forecasting has become important for closing the digital divide, promoting regional developments, and constructing networks economically; therefore, a demand forecast model that considers the mechanisms of market structure is necessary. In this paper, a demand analysis method for broadband access combining macro- and micro-data mining is proposed, and the service choice behaviour of customers is introduced as a customer model not only to express the macro trend of market structure, but also to consider area marketing. The proposed method can estimate the potential demand, determine the point at which broadband demand growth peaks in a specified area, and support a decision for ultra high-speed broadband access facility installation.     

Expectations of Working Relationships in International Buyer–Seller Relationships: Development of a Relationship Continuum Scale

This study is an attempt to develop a scale to measure expectations of buyer–seller working relationships on a cross-cultural basis in the hospitality industry. The focus is on North American and Asian hotel salespeople. The scale development drew from previous research in guanxi relationships, purchasing, and selling strategies. While the results did not support a reliable unidimensional scale that could distinguish between transactional and collaborative working relationships, the methodology did create a framework for further scale development.     

Treasury auctions: Uniform or discriminatory?

There has been much discussion of the relative merits of selling government bonds using a uniform-price auction rather than the traditional discriminatory-price auction. Arguments in favor of the former have won the day in respect of the newly instituted auctions of index-linked bonds in the USA and UK. This short paper assesses the evidence and concludes that the advantages of uniform-price auctions have been oversold. Received: 28 May 1999 / Accepted: 27 September 1999     

Residual Income Valuation Models and Inflation

Existing empirical evidence suggests that residual income valuation models based on historical cost accounting considerably underestimate equity values. One possible explanation is the use of historical cost accounting under inflationary conditions. In this paper, we use a residual income framework to explore theoretically how historical cost accounting numbers need to be adjusted for inflation in forecasting and valuation. We demonstrate that even in a simple setting where inflation is running at a relatively low level, residual income models are likely to produce severe under-valuations if inflation is not properly taken into account. We use simulated data to reinforce our theoretical findings and to illustrate the difficulties that empirical investigators face working within the confines imposed by real data.     

Introduction: human resource management in Africa

This article introduces the special issue that seeks to spur the debate on the challenges of managing people in organizations in Africa. The debate on HRM in Africa has proceeded with tentative steps and now clearly needs to be located firmly within the international management context. It is not the purpose of this special issue to discover or develop an over-arching model of HRM. That has been attempted elsewhere. Our purpose is to bring together the various threads that characterize the on-going debate and hopefully move towards a more specific research agenda which captures the complexity of managing on the African continent. Some of these threads include the formulation of new perspectives on HR research, finding common ground with diverse disciplines and tackling enduring problems like ethnicity and discrimination.     

Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes

Variation in the price of steel is an important factor to take into consideration when discussing cost control and management decisions in the construction industry. We employ various conventional and advanced econometrics methods to examine the interrelationships of steel prices in three related markets during the time period June 2002 to May 2010: Mainland China (CH), Taiwan (TW), and the United States (US). We adopt the Gregory and Hansen (GH) test and regime-switching (RS) model for cointegration, both of which accommodate endogenous structural break(s), to produce a more accurate analysis of a period in the presence of structural change(s). The empirical result of the RS cointegration test with respect to multiple structural breaks suggests a long-run equilibrium relationship among the three variables considered. This finding differs from the result of the GH test but confirms the result of the conventional Johansen test. Furthermore, the results of the Granger causality test indicate that both CH and US steel prices have great influence on the TW steel price; the Taiwanese steel market is closely linked with China and US steel markets in the long run.     

The Aggregate Demand Curve and Its Proper Interpretation

Textbook authors, in their presentations of aggregate demand–aggregate supply, are admonished to set their houses in order. The writers suggest the continued usefulness of the traditional “Keynesian cross” model as a pedagogical device and present a version that they allege to be superior to the popular AD–AS models found in many contemporary texts.