Bayesian Calibration of p‐Values from Fisher's Exact Test

p‐Values are commonly transformed to lower bounds on Bayes factors, so‐called minimum Bayes factors. For the linear model, a sample‐size adjusted minimum Bayes factor over the class of g‐priors on the regression coefficients has recently been proposed (Held & Ott, The American Statistician 70(4), 335–341, 2016). Here, we extend this methodology to a logistic regression to obtain a sample‐size adjusted minimum Bayes factor for 2 × 2 contingency tables. We then study the relationship between this minimum Bayes factor and two‐sided p‐values from Fisher's exact test, as well as less conservative alternatives, with a novel parametric regression approach. It turns out that for all p‐values considered, the maximal evidence against the point null hypothesis is inversely related to the sample size. The same qualitative relationship is observed for minimum Bayes factors over the more general class of symmetric prior distributions. For the p‐values from Fisher's exact test, the minimum Bayes factors do on average not tend to the large‐sample bound as the sample size becomes large, but for the less conservative alternatives, the large‐sample behaviour is as expected.     

Monetary integration has made progress

The European Monetary System was ten years old on 13th March. The following three contributions assess the progress made so far and the outlook for the future.     

Explaining shapes of Engel curves: the impact of differential satiation dynamics on consumer behavior

This paper presents a formal model in which differential satiation dynamics of various consumer needs explain (not only describe) the shapes of Engel curves. In the model, individuals allocate their income to various consumption categories proportional to corresponding need deprivation states, a decision making process called matching. The model allows explaining some empirical regularities that other models have difficulties accounting for. It can, for example, reconstruct that income elasticities for food tend to decrease with rising income, and that goods that are luxuries at relatively low income levels can become necessities at higher income levels. Moreover, the paper compares the Engel curves obtained from the matching model with Engel curves obtained from a utility maximization model. While both types of Engel curves are relatively similar at high income levels, at lower income levels matching and maximization lead to very different allocations of income. The paper shows that a given amount of income redistribution leads to less additional welfare when individuals follow matching behavior than when they maximize their utility. Accordingly, to obtain a given amount of additional welfare more income redistribution is needed than a policy maker who (mistakenly) assumes that individuals rationally maximize their utility predicts.     

A Guide to Paradigmatic Self-Marginalization: Lessons for Post-Keynesian Economists

While many heterodox economists hope that the recent financial crisis will lead to paradigmatic change in economics, we argue that path-dependent processes and institutional factors within the economic community hinder such a change. Focusing on the citation behavior of economists in heterodox journals in general and in Post-Keynesian journals in particular, we discuss structural reasons—connected to positive feedback mechanisms within the institutional framework of the economics discipline—for the marginalization of heterodox economic thought.     

Unveiling the recovery time zone of tolerance: when time matters in service recovery

This article examines the link between recovery time and customer compensation expectations for service failures that cannot be immediately redressed. First, we show that the relationship between recovery time and compensation expectations is nonlinear. Initially, in a recovery time zone of tolerance, compensation expectations do not increase. Beyond this zone, the relationship follows an inverted U-shape, such that compensation expectations first increase but decrease in the long run. Second, our results show that long recovery times are accompanied by additional negative effects, including lower satisfaction with the recovery and negative word of mouth, so postponing service recovery represents a poor option. Third, relationship strength functions as a moderator. First-time customers expect higher compensation earlier; relational customers display a recovery time zone of tolerance but claim considerably higher compensations afterwards. Fourth, communication initiatives like the separate provision of status updates or an explanation may limit increases in compensation expectations over time. Still, their joint usage creates a “too-much-of-a-good-thing” effect, suggesting that if the usage of communication initiatives is taken too far it may lead to negative outcomes such as increasing compensation expectations.