Decomposition of Fraud‐Risk Assessments and Auditors' Sensitivity to Fraud Cues*

Practitioners and regulators are concerned that when auditors perceive management's attitude or character as indicative of low fraud risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive to high levels of incentive or opportunity risks in their overall fraud‐risk assessments. In this study, we examine whether a fraud‐triangle decomposition of fraud‐risk assessments (that is, separately assessing attitude, opportunity, and incentive risks prior to assessing overall fraud risk) increases auditors' sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues when perceptions of management's attitude suggest low fraud risk. In an experiment with 52 practicing audit managers, we find that auditors who decompose fraud‐risk assessments are more sensitive to opportunity and incentive cues when making their overall assessments than auditors who simply make an overall fraud‐risk assessment. However, this increased sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues appears to happen only when those cues suggest low fraud risk. When opportunity and incentive cues suggest high fraud risk, auditors are equally sensitive to those cues whether they use a decomposition or a holistic approach. We discuss and examine potential explanations for this finding.     

Endogenous Group Formation

While the rules governing the formation of groups engaging in collective action may have significant impact on group size and behavior of members, most experiments on public goods have been conducted with the subjects in exogenously fixed groups or of fixed sizes. We study endogenous formation of groups in a public‐goods provision game by allowing subjects to change groups under three sets of rules: free entry/exit, restricted entry with free exit, and free entry with restricted exit. We find that the rules governing entry and exit do have a significant impact on individual behavior and group‐level outcomes.     

THE IMPACT OF HIV EDUCATION ON BEHAVIOR AMONG YOUTHS: A PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING APPROACH

There has been a long‐standing debate as to whether sex or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) education actually influences the way young people behave. To the extent these programs work, they represent a potential mechanism policy‐makers might use to reduce risky behavior among youths. This paper uses data from the 2009 Youth Risk Behavior Survey to examine if students who have received school‐based HIV instruction behave differently than those who have not. To address potentially endogenous exposure to HIV education, this paper considers a propensity score matching approach. Findings from the propensity score analysis suggest that standard ordinary least squares results are biased. Despite this, there remains some evidence that exposure to HIV education decreases risky sexual activity. Among male students, HIV education is also negatively related to the rate of using needles to inject illegal drugs into the body. The needle use results are robust to a sensitivity analysis, while the results for sexual behaviors are not. (JEL H75, I18, I28, K32)     

Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk-averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy generates long-run cycles in both sovereign debt and foreign direct investment in an environment in which the first best capital stock is a constant. The expected tax on capital endogenously varies with the state of the economy, and investment is distorted by more in recessions than in booms, amplifying the effect of shocks. The government's lack of commitment induces a negative correlation between investment and the stock of government debt, a "debt overhang" effect. Debt relief is never Pareto improving and cannot affect the long-run level of investment. Furthermore, restricting the government to a balanced budget can eliminate the cyclical distortion of investment.     

Social Discount Rates from Stratospheric Ozone Control*

We develop a model of optimal project timing to infer the discount rate US residents attach to investments in stratospheric ozone preservation. In this model, the calendar date at which preservation-related benefits offset costs is shown to be an increasing function of the real social rate of time preference. Estimates of US costs and benefits associated with the original (1987) Montreal Protocol are used to determine a range of discount rates from the US control of stratospheric ozone depletion. From this example the range is about 3.0 to 8.77 per cent.     

Seebohm Rowntree and secondary poverty, 1899–19541

This article, focusing on Seebohm Rowntree's poverty surveys, considers the importance and durability of the concept of secondary poverty. It argues that secondary poverty was a central component of Rowntree's first survey of York, carried out in 1899, and in his lectures and writing in the Edwardian period. Moreover, secondary poverty remained an important feature of Rowntree's analysis during the interwar years and after the Second World War, and was adopted by other researchers in various ways. Although secondary poverty was not seriously examined in the published version of Rowntree's 1936 York survey, there is evidence that it was originally intended to feature, and it is clear that impressionistic evidence of poverty was gathered by Rowntree's investigators, as had been the case in 1899. Moreover, although it was completely expunged from the third survey of York, carried out by Rowntree and Lavers in 1950, a separate inquiry into secondary poverty was carried out in the early 1950s, with a number of prominent supporters. Subsequently, dissatisfaction with income‐based definitions and measurements of poverty allowed the concept of secondary poverty to continue to exercise an influence on the study of poverty in the postwar period.