Global Value Chains in the Era of 4IR: New Paradigm of Business Models for SMEs

This paper presents a brief literature review of previous studies methodologies,models,and contexts in studying firms’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVCs).The...     

Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air Pollutant Emissions in Italy: Evidence from Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) Panel Data

This paper provides new empirical evidence on delinking and Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) for greenhouse gases and other air pollutant emissions in Italy. A panel dataset based on the Italian NAMEA (National Accounts Matrix including Environmental Accounts) for 1990–2001 is analysed. The highly disaggregated dataset (29 production branches, 12 years and nine air emissions) provides a large heterogeneity and can help to overcome the shortcomings of the usual approach to EKC based on cross-country data. Both value added and capital stock per employee are used as alternative drivers for analysing sectoral NAMEA emissions. Trade openness at the same sectoral level is also introduced among the covariates. We find mixed evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. The analysis of NAMEA-based data shows that some of the pollutants such as two greenhouse gases (CO₂ and CH₄) and CO, produce inverted U-shaped curves with coherent within-range turning points. Other pollutants (SO_X, NO_X, PM₁₀) show a monotonic or even N-shaped relationship. Macro sectoral disaggregated analysis highlights that the aggregated outcome should hide some heterogeneity across different groups of production branches (industry, manufacturing only and services). Services tend to present an inverted N-shape in most cases. Manufacturing industry shows a mix of inverted U and N-shapes, depending on the emission considered. The same is true for industry (all industries, not only manufacturing): although a turning point has been experienced, N-shapes may lead to increased emissions with respect to very high levels of the economic driver. In general, EKC evidence is more pronounced for greenhouse gases. The results suggest that analysis at macro sector (whole industry, manufacturing only and services) can be the most promising approach to future research on EKC.     

The heterogeneity of carbon Kuznets curves for advanced countries: comparing homogeneous,heterogeneous and shrinkage/Bayesian estimators

We investigate Carbon Kuznets Curves (CKC) relationships for advanced countries grouped in policy relevant groups – North America and Oceania, South Europe, North Europe – by means of various homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage/Bayesian panel estimators. We try to provide an answer to the question ‘how sensitive are the CKC estimates to changes in the level of parameters' heterogeneity?’. We do find that in coherence with their ‘policy and economic’ commitment to carbon reductions and environmental market-based instruments implementation, bell shapes are present only for northern EU, which leads the group of advanced countries. The other two lag behind. We show for the first time that CKC shapes are present if we net out Europe of the southern and less developed countries. This is coherent with the Kuznets paradigm. The negative side of the tale is that they characterize a bunch of few countries. Other advanced countries lag behind and are far from reaching a CKC dynamics. Heterogeneous and Bayesian estimators clearly show this, with the EU presenting turning points closely around $13?000 per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Heterogeneous panel estimates also show that for lagging countries presumed bell shapes turn into linear relationships. The stability of outcomes across models is stronger when we compare heterogeneous rather than homogeneous models. If it is compared with other studies, our analysis highlights a relative lower variability across specifications.     

Sectoral Selection and Informality: a Nicaraguan Case Study

Using microdata from the 1998 and 1993 Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Survey, this paper analyzes the relative size and attractiveness of formal and informal sector employment. Switching regression models of the formal/informal sector employment choice indicate that education across years and gender are the primary determinants of formal sector participation. Furthermore, the formal sector is characterized by positive selection. The results for the informal sector are less definitive, but are also suggestive of positive selection. These findings imply that the informal and formal sectors in Nicaragua contribute positively to the overall economy by attracting those individuals best suited for (in)formal sector employment.     

Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?

A common finding in the empirical literature on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) is that it holds when tested for in panel data, but not in univariate (i.e. country-specific) analysis. The usual explanation for this mismatch is that panel tests for unit roots are more powerful than their univariate counterparts. In this paper we suggest an alternative explanation. Existing panel methods assume that cross-unit cointegrating relationships, that would tie the units of the panel together, are not present. Using simulations, we show that if this important underlying assumption of panel unit root tests is violated, the empirical size of the tests is substantially higher than the nominal level, and the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected too often even when it is true. More generally, this finding warns against the automatic use of panel methods for testing for unit roots in macroeconomic time series.First version received: November 2001/Final version received : October 2003     

Economics of externalities and public policy

In this paper we study a particular case of “multiple” externalities associated to the production of a good/activity, whose external effects can change from positive to negative depending on the level of output (intersecting externalities). To analyze their impact on the public policy we propose a very simple two-agent partial equilibrium model in the technological context of externalities. In a static framework, the centralized solution always implies an optimal policy, which may consist of taxation or subsidization depending on the individual optimum and on the technology parameters. In a dynamic model with local knowledge of the efficiency function and instantaneous output adjustments, such an optimal policy can be structurally stable or unstable. In the latter case, under small changes of the parameters the policy may switch from low taxation/subsidization to high taxation/subsidization or vice versa, or even jump discontinuously from taxation to subsidization or vice versa. Furthermore, the decentralized solution based upon “tradable rights” can be economically equivalent to the centralized solution in the form of taxation policy but the two solutions may be not politically equivalent.

The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2010. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap tend to be characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability and model uncertainty, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. Some euro area real-time measures, based on multivariate components models and capacity utilisation, are relatively less uncertain, but do not appear to be fully reliable along some dimensions. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real-time estimates tend to be revised to a lesser extent than euro area estimates. However, euro area real-time output gap estimates tend to display a higher correlation with the final estimates and the sign of the level of US real-time estimates tends to be revised more often compared to the corresponding euro area estimates. In addition, the data revision component of the revision error is larger for US estimates than for the euro area. Overall, the unreliability in real-time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period.