Asymmetric Causality Between Inflation and Uncertainty: Evidences from 33 Developed and Developing Countries

Empirical studies have provided conflicting findings about the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Thus, the direction of the causality is still questionable. The present paper is aimed to extend the existing literature using non-linearity models and asymmetric causality tests. For this purpose, the data for 33 developed and developing countries during 1988Q4-2016Q3 is used. The results showed an asymmetry in the inflation behavior which is specified by smooth transition process, as well as separating positive and negative shocks observed in causality test. The asymmetric causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty is confirmed in most countries, although the empirical evidence in favor of Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis is found to be weaker than Friedman-Ball hypothesis.

     

Planning for ecotourism in the protected area of Manesht and Ghelarang,Ilam Province,Iran

ABSTRACT

This paper reports a study of the Manesht- and Ghelarang-protected area in Iran. The study sought to identify ways in which sustainable tourism policies could be generated that aid the natural and human environments. From surveys and questionnaires completed by tourists, residents, and officials, an initial set of 10 areas of weakness, 9 strengths, and 6 opportunities were identified. Using these classifications combined with mapping techniques that included maps of topography and flora, a subsequent Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution analysis identified potential future policies that require infrastructure development and reinforced pro-environmental policies to address the problems currently being experienced.     

An Examination of the Naïve‐Investor Hypothesis in Accruals Mispricing in Tunisian Firms

This study extends previous studies on accrual anomaly to investigate the emerging market's mispricing of accruals. Using Mishkin (1983) test, hedge portfolio test and Fama and MacBeth (1973) regression, we test whether the Tunisian Stock Exchange price rationally reflects the 1‐year ahead earnings implications of its earnings components. We find that earnings and their cash flow and accrual components are not rationally priced by the market. Additionally, this paper examines the role of sophistication investors in the pricing of earnings and their components. Our results show that accruals for firms with higher level of institutional ownership are not mispriced, while accruals for firms with lower institutional ownership are overpriced significantly by the market.     

Developing a model to evaluate the impacts of science,technology and innovation foresight on policy-making

Technology foresight as a policy intelligence tool can offer vital inputs for policy-making in various domains. The relationship between foresight and policy-making has been presented in the literature by the policy-related functions of foresight, but the literature reflects a theoretical gap with the systematic evaluation model for the impact of foresight on policy-making. This research seeks to bridge the existing gap and uses the mixed method for this purpose. The mixed method approach used in this paper is the sequential exploratory design. First, the conceptual model is developed in the qualitative part of this research by using meta-synthesis and constant comparative method (CCM) of analysis. Second, in the quantitative part, quantitative tests are used to evaluate the dimensions and components of the developed theoretical model. The data collection tool is a questionnaire. The results confirm the proposed dimensions of the evaluation model.     

Guidelines-based treatment associated with improved economic outcomes in nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTMLD) in the US has increased; however, data characterizing the associated healthcare utilization and expenditure at the national level are limited.

Objective: To examine associations between economic outcomes and the use of anti-Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) guidelines-based treatment (GBT) for newly-diagnosed NTMLD in a US national managed care claims database (Optum^® Clinformatics^® Data Mart).

Methods: NTMLD was defined as having ≥2 claims for NTMLD (ICD-9 031.0; ICD-10 A31.0) on separate occasions ≥30?days apart (between 2007 and 2016). The cohort included patients insured continuously over a period of at least 36?months (12?months before initial NTMLD diagnostic claim and for the subsequent 24?months). Treatment was classified as GBT (consistent with American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines), non-GBT, or untreated. All-cause hospitalization rates and total healthcare expenditures at Year 2 were assessed as outcomes of the treatment prescribed in Year 1 after NTMLD diagnosis.

Results: A total of 1,039 patients met study criteria for NTMLD (GBT, n?=?294; non-GBT, n?=?298; untreated, n?=?447). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, GBT was associated with a significantly lower all-cause hospitalization risk vs non-GBT (odds ratio [OR]?=?0.53; 95% CI = 0.33–0.85, p?=?0.008), and vs being untreated (OR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.35–0.91, p?=?0.020). Adjusted total healthcare expenditure in Year 2 with GBT ($69,691) was lower than that with non-GBT ($77,624) with a difference of ?$7,933 (95% CI = ?$14,968 to ?$899; p?=?0.03).

Conclusions: Patients with NTMLD in a US managed care claims database who were prescribed GBT had lower hospitalization risk than those who were prescribed non-GBT or were untreated. GBT was associated with lower total healthcare expenditure compared with non-GBT.     

Earnings management by the early adopters of SFAS No. 106

Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (SFAS) No. 106 on Nonpension Postretirement Benefits (NPB) provides managers with a relatively long adoption window and choice of transition methods which can be used by affected companies to manage earnings. This paper examines whether management's choice of adoption timing is motivated by the desire to manage earnings. Fisher's [1934] exact probability analysis is used to test the hypothesis regarding profitability of a sample of 200 early and late adopters of SFAS No. 106. The results indicate that the profitability of adopting the income-reducing accounting standard (SFAS No. 106) early is significantly higher for more profitable firms than for less profitable firms.     

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach as well as the dynamic common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG) methodology for estimation to account for cross‐country heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and feedback effects. Using both annual data for 1970–2007 and 5‐year non‐overlapping observations, we find that while CToT growth enhances real output per capita, CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical and human capital. Productivity, however, is not affected by either the growth or the volatility of CToT. Our results also indicate that the negative growth effects of CToT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the ‘resource curse’ paradox. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microdata analysis of the consequences of free trade port policy: the case of Iran free zones

ABSTRACT

Creating free trade zones as a policy to motivate new investment and improve the local economic indicators might be of some benefits. Following of this policy in Iranian major port, however, resulted vice versa by aggravating the current account balance that is higher imports and the same horizon diminished export sums. We derive the micro data of trade for the Iranian major Imam port according to code arrangements of harmonic system (HS), which permits the clustering of different goods categories. Then we extracted the sums of survey data for the years before and after Imam port became free trade zone and applied fixed effect difference in difference (DID) method to capture the heterogeneity of unobserved variables. Our control port of analysis was Rajaee port the policy did not implemented. Results show that just as Imam free port’s Current Account Balance deteriorated by increasing import and dampening of export sums.     

Are sponsorship announcements good news for the shareholders? Evidence from international stock exchanges

The objective of this study is to analyse investors’ perceptions of sponsorship’s ability to increase brand equity, through the impact of sponsorship announcement on stock market value. An event study method, based on a unique sample of 293 worldwide sponsorship announcements from 2010, shows substantial negative abnormal returns following announcement dates. In addition, a cross-sectional regression analysis reveals the influence of several featured factors. Philanthropic sponsorships and sponsorships of events with distinctive values are less negatively perceived by investors, but US companies exhibit more negative returns in shareholder value than other firms. This study offers no support for varying impacts of event audience, renewal agreement, property sponsorship and title sponsorship on abnormal returns though.