China's One‐Child Policy: Some Unintended Consequences

This paper gives a brief overview of China's family planning policy which, although recently relaxed, still controls a large swath of the population. Unofficially known as the ‘one‐child policy’, it resulted from the social strife of the 1970s coupled with a Malthusian pessimism concerning the capability of the still largely closed and isolated Chinese economy to care for itself. We discuss the motivations for the policy, the unfortunate demographic future that it will create, and some policy reforms that can be undertaken today.     

Market microstructure effects on volatility at the TAIFEX

This study examines whether changes in the frequency of market clearing or changes in trading hours on competing exchanges that use different auction systems affect the volatility of futures prices. In particular, this study exploits a natural experiment in the frequency of market clearing of stock index futures contracts traded on the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) to assess whether successive increases in the frequency of market clearing are associated with changes in the volatility of futures prices. The impact of changes in the trading hours on the TAIFEX and on the competing Singapore Exchange (SGX) where a similar Taiwanese stock index futures contract trades under a continuous auction market regime is also examined. The evidence for the impact of an increase in the frequency of market clearing on volatility is mixed. However, the introduction of simultaneous opening times for the TAIFEX (which batches orders at the open) and the SGX (which does not) is associated with a significant reduction in the volatility in SGX Taiwanese stock index futures prices. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1219–1243, 2007     

Still unanswered quibbles with fractional reserve free banking

Anthony Evans and Steven Horwitz readily admit that their own understanding of monetary theory is imperfect, and do not even “attempt a rebuttal of [our] claims.” George Selgin accepts that some of the arguments we put forward in Bagus and Howden (2010) make for “interesting theory”. He fails to rebuff our claim that precautionary reserves are unable to constrain credit creation in a fractional reserve free banking system. While calling for us to provide historical evidence to validate the quibbles we put forward, Selgin himself overstates the evidence. He also claims that we have distorted what he has written, and that we use incorrect monetary theory. These allegations are false.     

Revisiting strategic versus non-strategic cooperation

We propose a novel experimental method that disentangles strategically- and non-strategically-motivated behavior. We apply it to an indefinitely-repeated prisoner’s dilemma game to observe simultaneously how the same individual behaves in situations with future interaction and in situations with no future interaction, while controlling for expectations. This method allows us to determine the extent to which strategically-cooperating individuals are responsible for the observed pattern of cooperation in experiments with repeated interaction, including the so-called endgame effect. Our results indicate that the most common motive for cooperation in repeated games is strategic.     

The Legitimacy of Loan Maturity Mismatching: A Risky,but not Fraudulent,Undertaking

Barnett and Block (Journal of Business Ethics, 2009) attack the heart of modern banking by claiming that the practice of borrowing short and lending long is illicit. While their claim of illegitimacy concerning fractional reserve banking can be defended, their justification lacks substance. Their claim is herein strengthened by a legal analysis of deposits and loans based on Huerta de Soto (Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles, 2006). A combined legal and economic analysis shows that while lending deposits can be regarded as illicit, the maturity mismatching of loans is legitimate contrary to Barnett and Block’s claim. No over-issuance of property rights is involved with this practice once the distinction between present and future goods is taken into account. However, while the practice is not illicit per se, it is greatly assisted and developed through the presence of a fractional reserve banking system, and can sometimes breed detrimental effects.