Bubbles for Fama

We evaluate Eugene F. Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns (1926?2014) and international sector returns (1985?2014), we present four findings (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash but not of a further price boom; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) these attributes also help forecast future returns. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.     

Issues in decentralizing the provision of education

This paper analyzes some of the problems that arise in decentralizing education to the private sector. We concentrate on the difficulties that result from the heterogeneity of students and competition among schools in a location setting. We analyze two main issues, the resources expended by schools and the mix of students in schools, and report on results for two others, the location of schools and their number. For each of these, we investigate the extent to which decentralizing the provision of schooling results in an efficient allocation of resources, and consider the use of vouchers to improve the situation. Our analysis draws on elements of three distinct methodologies: the theory of clubs, location theory, and the theory of monopolistic competition. We find that private schooling will typically be inefficient, but that inefficiency may sometimes be corrected by appropriately designed vouchers.We would like to thank Olivier Debande, Jean-François Wen, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the 1st meeting of the Canadian Public Economics Study Group and the 51 st congress of the International Institute of Public Finance for helpful comments. Stefan Buergi and Luc Savard provided useful research assistance. We are also grateful to the SSHRCC and the FCAR for financial support.     

A test of the different implications of the overconfidence and disposition hypotheses

Under both the overconfidence and disposition biases, a positive relationship is predicted between prior returns and subsequent trading volume. However, theoretically the overconfidence and disposition effects have different implications on the relationships between the long- and short-position gains of traders and their subsequent buying and selling activities. We examine a unique dataset obtained from the Taiwan Futures Exchange which records all account-level trades and orders. Our data and methodology have the advantage of being able to empirically differentiate these two effects and we demonstrate that different types of traders exhibit different types and levels of behavioral biases.     

Personal value systems of Japanese trainees and managers in a changing competitive system

A study of personal values held by Japanese and foreign students, trainees and managers showed recent Japanese trainees slightly more conservative than their 1979 cohorts. Foreign students and foreign managers held more pro-American work values than either Japanese managers or trainees. Finally, for the Japanese respondents, there was some evidence of specific shifts away from the Japanese employment system in the areas of thenenko compensation and promotion systems in their organisations.Roy J. Adams is a Professor of Industrial Relations in McMaster University; Richard B. Peterson is a Professor of Management and Organization in the University of Washington; Hermann F. Schwind is an Associate Professor in St. Mary's University.