REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.     

‘Should I Buy,Hoard, or Hide?’- Consumers’ responses to perceived scarcity

Scarce shopping situations often seem to have a greater value for consumers and trigger extreme behaviors. This study examines the effects of scarcity that is strategically created by the marketer in influencing consumer behavior. Drawing from reactance theory, it is suggested that, when scarcity is perceived to be strategically created by the retailer, consumers tend to exhibit deviant and competitive behaviors. The mediating role of emotions like anticipated regret is also examined. Further, the role of human traits like competitiveness and hedonic motivations in moderating the relationships between perceived scarcity and behaviors is also examined. The results of the study suggest that, under the conditions of perceived scarcity, consumers tend to exhibit behaviors like in-store hoarding, and in-store hiding, due in part to the increased urgency to buy. Also, the findings suggest a pertinent role of emotions and human traits in influencing the decision making under the condition of strategically-created scarcity.     

Demand for household sanitation in India using NFHS-3 data

India has the highest number of people defecating in the open, and the Indian Government is trying to eradicate by constructing toilets for its citizens. This paper is about whether the government is likely to succeed in its cleanliness drive mission by a supply-side policy. We examine the household preference and other the factors leading to open defecation in India. We examine preference for having a toilet in the household over the preference of other household durable goods. Our results suggest toilets get a lower preference—ranked 12, out of 21 different types of consumer durables we investigate. The results also indicate a strong case for imparting education and public awareness, especially, among the female cohort. We find the odds of having toilets in a household with an educated woman (18 years of schooling) is 3.1 times more than a household with illiterate or preschool educated women. Among other factors households living in urban areas are 19 times more likely to have toilets in comparison with their rural counterparts.     

Style consumption: its drivers and role in sustainable apparel consumption

This study proposes style consumption (SC) as a way to foster sustainable apparel consumption. In doing so, we identify explanatory and outcome variables of SC and also examine gender differences in these variables. Based on an online survey with 586 consumers, we find that frugal apparel consumption (FAC), fashion consciousness (FC) and ecologically conscious consumption (ECC) enhance the likelihood of SC. SC in turn increases environmental apparel purchase (EAP) and sustainable apparel divestment (SAD). The results also suggest significant gender differences both in motivational and behavioural variables included in the model. Specifically, females are significantly higher than males in FAC, FC and ECC. The tendency of SC, EAP and SAD were also higher for females than males. In addition, we find that gender is a significant factor mediating the effect of FC and that of ECC on SC.     

Is India Shining?

The popular perception about economic reforms having benefitted only the richer districts of India between 1999/2000 and 2004/2005 is investigated. Using the spatial dynamics of district‐level per‐capita income it was found that income distribution did not change between the years examined. It is argued that this is because of per‐capita income across districts being spatially positively correlated. Physical infrastructure, human capital, and factories are identified as factors responsible for increase in income for both the rich as well as the poor districts. Infrastructure, physical or social, is a key component of growth in India. A policy impact analysis shows development of better drainage and potable water systems has a large impact on income. For the year 2001/02, it was found that for every 1% increase in closed drainage system and potable water, district‐level median income increases by 1.39% and 0.21%, respectively.     

Are small‐scale rice farmers in eastern India really inefficient? Examining the effects of microtopography on technical efficiency estimates

The article analyzes how controlling for differences in land types (defined by position on a low‐scale toposequence) affects estimates of farm technical efficiency for rice farms in eastern India. Contrasting previous research, we find that farms are considerably more technically efficient when efficiency estimates are carried out at the plot level and control for plot characteristics rather than at the farm level without such controls. Estimates show farms cultivating modern varieties are technically efficient and plots planted with traditional varieties on less productive lands (upland and midupland) operate close to the production frontier. Significant technical inefficiency is found on more productive lands (medium and lowland plots) planted with traditional rice varieties. The finding that these smallholder rain‐fed rice farms are efficient cultivators on some plots contrasts with previous findings of farm‐level inefficiency (i.e., rejects overarching explanations linked to farm operator ignorance or lack of motivation) and suggests more complex explanations are required to address the inefficiency that is present.     

The evolution and performance of biotechnology regional systems of innovation

The paper maintains that biotechnology regions develop as complexsystems: they start with star scientists in research universities,generating knowledge spillovers, then move progressively towardsregional technology markets. In the process they attract venturecapital (or modify the behaviour of existing venture capitalfirms with the addition of biotechnology portfolios). The routinesof universities are also modified with the addition of intellectualproperty and technology transfer offices intervening as sellersin the newly created knowledge markets. The paper also considerswhether companies located in regional agglomerations grow fasterthan isolated ones, and whether companies spun-off from universitieshave a better performance than start-ups. The study is basedon about 90 Canadian-based publicly quoted biotechnology companies.     

The budget impact of brodalumab for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis on US commercial health plans

Introduction: Brodalumab is a new biologic approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2017 for the treatment of moderate-severe psoriasis. This study evaluated the impact of the introduction of brodalumab on the pharmacy budget on US commercial health plans.

Methods: An Excel-based health economic decision analytic model with a US health plan perspective was developed. The model incorporated published moderate-to-severe psoriasis prevalence data; market shares of common biologic drugs, including adalimumab, ustekinumab, secukinumab, ixekizumab, and etanercept, used for the treatment of moderate–severe psoriasis; 2017-year Wholesale Acquisition Costs for the biologic drugs; drug dispensing fee; patient co-pay; and drug contracting discount. Total annual health plan costs for the biologic drugs were estimated. Scenarios with different proportions of patients treated with brodalumab were compared to a control scenario when no brodalumab was used.

Results: In a hypothetical commercial health plan covering two million members, 7,038 moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients were estimated to be eligible for treatment with brodalumab. Prior to brodalumab approval, the proportions of patients treated by other biologics were estimated at 50.8% for adalimumab, 13.5% for ustekinumab, 14.1% for secukinumab, 4.4% for ixekizumab, and 17.2% for etanercept. With a 20% drug price discount applied to all biologics, the annual health plan costs for brodalumab, adalimumab, ustekinumab, secukinumab, ixekizumab, and etanercept were estimated at $37,224, $49,166, $55,084, $56,061, $64,396, and $57,170, respectively. When no brodalumab is used, the total annual pharmacy budget for the biologics used among these patients was estimated at $414,362,647. Among scenarios where the proportions of brodalumab usage were 3%, 8%, 16%, and 30%, the total annual pharmacy cost was estimated to be reduced by $3,698,129, $9,861,677, $19,723,355, and $36,981,290, respectively.

Conclusion: Based on the economic model, brodalumab has the potential to substantially reduce pharmacy expenditures for the treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the US.     

Optimum currency area in South Asia: A state space approach

This paper is an empirical investigation of the feasibility of an optimum currency area (OCA) in South Asia. Countries are good candidates for forming an OCA if their economies are similarly structured and if their economies share similar responses to exogenous shocks. That is, among other characteristics, good candidates for forming an OCA will share a coincident pattern of economic booms and recessions. We use a state space time series model with a stochastic trend to explore the extent to which the Indices of Industrial Production for South Asian nations share common dynamic responses to exogenous shocks.     

Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies

This paper primarily examines whether the ‘hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve’ (HNKPC) holds for four important emerging economics viz., Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. This has been done after testing for the structural stability of this relationship. Econometric issues like the test of unit roots in presence of a structural break and estimation of output gap have also been done appropriately. Our findings suggest that the HNKPC is not stable for all the four countries. However, the analysis based on the two sub-periods thus formed clearly shows mixed evidence in respect of holding of this relationship.