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1.
In this progress report, we first indicate the origins and early development of the Marshallian macroeconomic model (MMM) and briefly review some of our past empirical forecasting experiments with the model. Then we present recently developed one-sector, two-sector and n-sector models of an economy that can be employed to explain past experience, predict future outcomes and analyze policy problems. The results of simulation experiments with various versions of the model are provided to illustrate some of its dynamic properties that include “chaotic” features. Last, we present comments on planned future work with the model. 相似文献
2.
Guillermo Calvo 《European Economic Review》2012,56(3):317-326
In contrast with the financial multiplier literature, this note explores a case in which the shock triggering a financial crisis stems from the financial sector itself; it is not a shock stemming from the real sector which gets amplified by, say, agency problems. The basic intuition is provided by the bank-run literature of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) variety. Financial development is modeled as a mechanism that endows real assets (e.g., land and capital) with liquidity. However, liquidity can be impaired by shocks that are equivalent to a bank run. Liquidity creation enhances real asset prices, while a liquidity crunch generates asset price collapse. This bubble-looking episode is not driven by standard fundamentals, although it is fully in line with rationality. In this context, devoid of other frictions like price stickiness, the note examines the effect of monetary policy in the absence of nominal rigidities. It shows that preventing price deflation is not enough to offset relative (to output) asset price meltdown, but lower policy interest rates increase relative asset prices and steady-state output. Moreover, in the neighborhood of a first-best capital allocation, an increase in the liquidity of capital may lower the welfare of the representative individual, even if the higher liquidity of capital is sustainable and, hence, not destroyed by future crash – illustrating the possibility of “excessive” financial innovation. An extension of the basic model supports the conjecture that low policy interest rates may have given further incentives to the development of “shadow banking.” 相似文献
3.
This paper investigates the effect of changes in payroll taxes on wages and employment in Argentina. The analysis, based on administrative data, focuses on the impact of a series of major changes in payroll taxes which varied across geographical areas. This setup offers two main advantages over previous studies. First, using longitudinal data, the variation in tax rates across space and time provides a plausible source of identification of their effects on employment and wages. Second, the use of legal tax rates for each area at each point in time provides a remedy for the measurement error bias raised by the use of empirical rates constructed from observed tax and wage bills. Once this bias is accounted for, the results indicate that changes in payroll tax rates are only partially shifted onto wages, and they point to the absence of any significant effect on employment. 相似文献
4.
David Matesanz Gomez Hernan J. Ferrari Benno Torgler Guillermo J. Ortega 《Applied economics》2017,49(10):972-986
In this article, we use a correlation matrix and its internal networks to analyse business cycle synchronization across Europe since 2000. This methodology allows us to summarize individual country interactions and co-movements while also capturing the existing heterogeneity of connectivity within the European economic system. Our results indicate that synchronization of the euro zone countries remained stable from 1999 until the current financial crisis, after which co-movements increased sharply and synchronization rose to the highest in the time sample. By endogenously identifying clusters of countries with close connections in their business cycle, we also refute the commonly accepted notion of identifiable core and peripheral euro zone countries. 相似文献
5.
Elvira Ivone González Jaimes María de Lourdes Hernández Prieto Juan Márquez Zea 《Contaduría y Administración》2013,58(2):261-278
Research design is quasi-experimental, field, with four longitudinal assessments for two groups (one experimental and one control) of students with irregularity student. Intervention, learns listen-think-write (lltw) method. population, 488 students. With a sample conditioned (students with irregular registration) of 170 students from two university careers of accounting and administration, both manner, 24.3 years old. Material, Raven’s Progressive Matrices test and Learning strategies ACRA test. The impact obtained by the intervention (LLTW) was 23%, significant difference between follow-up evaluation 6 and 12 months. Regarding the improvement of learning skills in post-test measurement showed a general increase in average by 28%. Also it is necessary to say, the decline was failed subjects in the two groups evolving 12 months in control group was 3 to 4 and the experimental group was 1 to 2. 相似文献
6.
Guillermo Marshall 《The Rand journal of economics》2020,51(2):346-374
Firms often choose not to post prices in wholesale markets, and buyers must incur costs to discover prices. Inspired by evidence of customized pricing (e.g., some customers pay up to 70% more than others) and search costs, I estimate a search model to study how personalized pricing impacts efficiency in a wholesale market. I find that price discrimination decreases total surplus by 11.6% and increases the sellers' profits by up to 52.1%. These effects are partially explained by price discrimination softening competition through a decrease in search incentives, illustrating how price discrimination may magnify the efficiency costs of search frictions. 相似文献
7.
西班牙Soluziona公司开发和建立了一套维修管理系统,使可靠性为中心的维修(RCM)方案付诸实施,并优化年度维修计划和日常维修管理工作。 相似文献
8.
五、技术状态的计算
估计成套装置和已经安装的设备的技术状态所使用的算法,其定义和制定这个项目的众多主要目标之一。对各种型号设备的技术状态是分别计算的,并用两个指标中的一个指标来表示,一个是在考虑周期内的失效概率(正常情况以一年为一个周期),另一个是残余寿命或预期寿命。技术状态用数值表示,数值小,说明设备处于完好状态,失效概率小和预期寿命长;数值大,则说明在考虑周期内失效概率大或它的预期寿命即将终止。 相似文献
9.
10.
David Matesanz Benno Torgler Germán Dabat Guillermo J. Ortega 《Agricultural Economics》2014,45(Z1):13-21
This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period. 相似文献