An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?

We analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between merchandise export volume and its determinants, foreign income, relative prices and exchange rate volatility, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction. The model was estimated for Irish exports and sectoral exports SITC 0-4 and SITC 5-8 to the EU using quarterly data for the period 1978-1998. The sectoral classification corresponds to the exports of mainly indigenous Irish firms and multinationals, respectively. We find that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the short-run but a significant positive effect in the long run. This is true in the aggregate and for our sectoral classifications. We can tentatively conclude that the decline in intra-EU exchange rate volatility associated with the single currency will lead to a long-run fall in Irish exports to the EU.     

Two Dimensions of Convergence: National and International Wage Adjustment Effects of Cross-border Outsourcing in Europe

The paper proposes a distinction between the two dimensions of convergence—within and between countries—when analyzing the impact of cross‐border outsourcing on real wage rates in the EU‐15 and the CEEC. In the CEEC, international outsourcing has not affected the adjustment of average real wage rates at the manufacturing industry level, but it has led to a closure of the gap within a typical EU economy. Between‐country convergence is likewise fostered by cross‐border outsourcing, supporting the hypothesis that outsourcing facilitates international factor price equalization.     

Uncertainty Associated with Future Environmental Costs and the Market's Differential Response to Earnings Information

This study examines whether the uncertainty arising from a firm's exposure to future environmental costs (environmental uncertainty) affects the market's price sensitivity to reported earnings. Specifically, when environmental uncertainty is significantly high, are investors more responsive to reported earnings released by 'high-polluting' firms than reported earnings announced by 'low-polluting' firms within the same industry? The initial impact of Title IV (the acid rain provisions) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (1990 CAAA) on the US electric utility industry provides the research setting required to isolate the effects of environmental uncertainty while addressing this question. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) of high-polluting electric utilities are significantly greater than those of their low-polluting counterparts during a predicted period of elevated environmental uncertainty. In adjoining sample years associated with lower environmental uncertainty, we observe no statistical difference in the magnitude of the ERCs between these two groups. In addition, the study's findings suggest that the magnitude of the ERC is increasing in the firm's exposure to future environmental costs, after controlling for other factors that potentially affect ERCs.     

Trade, foreign firms and economic policy in Indonesian and Thai manufacturing

This paper first examines the rapid growth and changing composition of manufactured exports in Indonesia and Thailand, highlighting the rapid growth of office and computer machinery and electric machinery, somewhat slower growth of non-electric and transportation machinery, as well as the low growth of previously large exports of textiles apparel. Second, the important contributions of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to export growth in the machinery industries, particularly in electric, office, and computing machinery, are documented. Third, the paper describes trade policies in all these industries in some detail, emphasizing how low protection was a key facilitator of rapid export growth in the MNEs that dominated the electric, office, and computing machinery industry, while high protection reduced incentives to export among MNEs in the transportation machinery industry.     

Fashion centres: An approach to sector intervention

The clothing and textile industry is a major employer in many areas. It consists of a large number of small firms characterised by very poor working conditions. The need to sustain employment in the industry and improve conditions has led to several local authorities adopting a sector approach to intervention. This paper looks at the development of one particular measure, the establishment of fashion centres.     

Entry and growth in a perfectly competitive vintage model

A perfectly competitive vintage-knowledge model of Schumpeterian growth is introduced to study the relation between growth, technology-lifetime, entry, and productivity-dispersion. The incentive to innovate is generated by the productivity-dispersion (latent in traditional vintage models) between new and old plants, rather than by monopoly rents. The model has a unique steady-state REE with endogenous growth. The endogenous extent of entry constitutes a buffer, dampening the effect of research-efficiency and completely neutralizing the effect of population size or population growth rates on per-capita income levels and growth rates. Variations of research-efficiency lead to a negative relation between growth and vintage-lifetime and a non-monotonic relation between growth and productivity-dispersion.     

A theoretical model of the relationship between value added elements and end product

This paper focuses on the development of a theoretical scheme describing the transformation of primary incomes into end consumption and savings in the Russian economy. This scheme is basically a system of interrelated tables reflecting the distribution of primary incomes across the institutional sectors and their further reallocation and use. The scheme makes allowances for the specific features of the Russian economy and existing statistics. In terms of methodology, it is coordinated with the interindustry balance in current buyer prices and, from the theoretical standpoint, describes the connection between Quadrant II and Quadrant III of the balance. Therefore, the proposed system of tables is treated in the paper as Quadrant IV of the interindustry balance. The theoretical scheme is used by the authors as a necessary basis for constructing an empirical model of the relationship between value added and end product, which will be published in the next issue of this journal.     

The economic performance of the Russian economy in 2006 and a forecast for 2008–2010

This article examines the economic outcome of 2006 and builds a forecast for 2007–2010. The medium-term development risks of the Russian economy are analyzed.