Expectation formation and regime switches

Economic agents often have to make decisions in environments affected by regime switches but expectation formation has hardly been explored in this context. We report about a laboratory experiment whose participants judgmentally forecast three time series subject to regime switches. The participants make forecasts without context knowledge and without support from statistical software. Their forecasts are only based on the previous realizations of the time series. Our interest is the explanation of the average forecasts with a simple model, the bounds & likelihood heuristic. In previous studies it was shown that this model can explain average forecasting behavior very well given stable and stationary time series. We find that the forecasts after a structural break are characterized by a higher variance and less accuracy over several periods. Considering this transition phase in the model, the heuristic performs even slightly better than the Rational Expectations Hypothesis.     

Problems of measuring money supply in the Euro Area

With just a few weeks left to go before responsibility for monetary policy is transferred from the EMU member countries to the European Central Bank, there is still no standardised concept for measuring a euro area money supply which could serve as a statistical basis for a money-supply oriented monetary policy strategy. Which problems remain to be solved?     

Improving the efficiency of monitoring adherence to antiretroviral therapy at primary health care level: a case study of the introduction of electronic technologies in Guguletu,South Africa

This paper presents a case study of the efficiency gains resulting from the introduction of electronic technologies to monitor and support adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Guguletu, South Africa. It suggests that the rollout of HAART to such resource-poor communities can be assisted significantly by the introduction of modified cellphones (to provide home based support to people on HAART and improve the management of adherence data) and simple bar-coding and scanning equipment (to manage drug supplies). The cellphones have improved the management of information, and simplified the working lives of therapeutic counsellors, thereby enabling them to spend less time on administration and to devote a constant amount of time per patient even though their case loads have risen threefold. It has helped integrate the local-level primary health service provision of HAART with the kind of centralised data capture and analysis that could potentially support a national HAART rollout.     

Information dissemination on intellectual capital in mergers and acquisitions: purchase price allocations,press releases and business press

In order to reduce information asymmetries in relation to a firm's current decisions and long-term strategy, firms must consistently provide information to stakeholders. This paper investigates intellectual capital (IC) information disclosed in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) provided through three different disclosure channels (voluntary press releases, related newspaper articles and subsequent mandatory corporate disclosures in the notes to the financial statements). For a sample of 215 randomly selected US and European M&As, we analyse 215 press releases, 1025 newspaper articles and 215 purchase price allocations. Our findings suggest that IC disclosure in press releases is not perceived as informative and qualitative forward-looking IC information in voluntary corporate disclosures appears to lack credibility. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate interdependencies across the three disclosure channels. The business press seems to filter IC information provided in press releases. The amount of IC disclosure in the notes to the financial statements is positively associated with prior IC disclosure in newspaper articles, but negatively associated with IC disclosure in press releases. The managements of acquirer firms appear to pay attention to news coverage and public opinion. However, both voluntary and mandatory corporate disclosures appear to substitute rather than complement each other.     

Performance of Global New Product Development Programs: A Resource-Based View

Gaining a competitive edge in today's turbulent business environment calls for a commitment by firms to two highly interrelated strategies: globalization and new product development (NPD). Although much research has focused on how companies achieve NPD success, little of this deals with NPD in the global setting. The authors use resource‐based theory (RBT)—a model emphasizing the resources and capabilities of the firm as primary determinants of competitive advantage—to explain how companies involved in international NPD realize superior performance. The capabilities RBT model is used to test how firms achieve superior performance by deploying organizational capabilities to take advantage of key organizational resources relevant for developing new products for global markets. Specifically, the study evaluates (1) organizational NPD resources (i.e., the firm's global innovation culture, attitude to resource commitment, top‐management involvement, and NPD process formality); (2) NPD process capabilities or routines for identifying and exploiting new product opportunities (i.e., global knowledge integration, NPD homework activities, and launch preparation); and (3) global NPD program performance. Based on data from 387 global NPD programs (North America and Europe, business‐to‐business), a structural model testing for the hypothesized mediation effects of NPD process capabilities on organizational NPD resources was largely supported. The findings indicate that all four resources considered relevant for effective deployment of global NPD process capabilities play a significant role. Specifically, a positive attitude toward resource commitment as well as NPD process formality is essential for the effective deployment of the three NPD process routines linked to achieving superior global NPD program performance; a strong global innovation culture is needed for ensuring effective global knowledge integration; and top‐management involvement plays a key role in deploying both knowledge integration and launch preparation. Of the three NPD process capabilities, global knowledge integration is the most important, whereas homework and launch preparation also play a significant role in bringing about global NPD program success. Tests for partial mediation suggest that too much process formality may be negative and that top‐management involvement requires careful focus.     

Emoji rhetoric: a social media influencer perspective

ABSTRACT

Social media require a marketing rhetoric that embraces emerging language use and shifting communication norms. Emojis have become quintessential elements of social media communication; yet, their role in supporting persuasion attempts has not been systematically analysed. Drawing on general rhetoric literature, this paper dissects, portrays and labels social media influencers’ persuasive attempts to initiate engagement through emojis. The focus on influencers is justified because of their dual roles as marketers and active social media users. 600 Weibo posts by the top 200 Weibo influencers were collected to develop a taxonomy of emoji-based verbal moves aimed at encouraging responses in followers. The resulting taxonomy demonstrates that emoji use by social media influencers is complex and strategic and serves multiple persuasive and communicative purposes.     

Finanzielle Repression — ein Instrument zur Bewältigung der Krisenfolgen?

Financial repression committed by central banks has been put forward as a means to secretly reduce the real burden of high public debts. Financial repression has allegedly played an important role in the impressive reduction of the US debt ratio after World War II. A mix of conventional budget consolidation and rapid growth was the main driver in this relative debt reduction with a minor role for financial repression. But does financial repression really exist? The authors express different opinions on evidence for this concept. Those authors who find that there are indicators of financial repression fear redistributive tendencies between debtors and creditors and high opportunity costs in the form of savings and investment distortions. Therefore, financial repression is not a “cure” for the high public debts amassed in the euro area during the recent sovereign debt and banking crisis. Furthermore, the high sovereign debts in the euro area may threaten economic development and impose high costs on society. Therefore, reducing these debts is politically highly relevant, and fiscal policy should be characterised by a modest reduction in government spending and/or tax increases, combined with a policy promoting economic growth. Macroprudential regulations should supplement this financial policy.     

Die Bedeutung der monetären Analyse für die Europäische Zentralbank

Die geldpolitische Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank beruht auf der wirtschaftlichen und der monetären Analyse von Risiken für die Preisstabilität im Euroraum. Sollte der monetären Analyse eine prominente Rolle zugewiesen werden?Eva-Ulrike Feldkord, 31, Dipl.-Volkswirtin, ist wis senschaftliche Mitarbeiterin in der Abteilung Internationale Makroökonomie im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).     

Matching food security and malnutrition indicators: evidence from Southeast Asia

This article aims to understand the relation between household food security and individual undernutrition. The multitude of indicators available raises the question which aspects of food security are captured by the respective indicator. In our analysis, we first assess the relation between the dimensions of food security and households’ socioeconomic characteristics. Second, we examine whether household indicators detect undernutrition in children. Finally, we investigate the role of individual‐specific characteristics for child undernutrition. The analysis is based on a novel data set of 1,200 rural households from Cambodia and Lao PDR, which combines household‐ and individual‐level data. We capture household food security by three indicators including a dietary diversity score, a consumption behavior measure, and an experiential measure. Individual nutrition status is measured via anthropometric indicators. Our results show that different household‐level indicators capture fundamentally different aspects of food security. Moreover, household food security fails to explain stunting for children under five. Dietary diversity indicators, however, explain underweight in children to a small extent. We call for more research on intrahousehold allocation of food and stress the implications of our research for the design and targeting of food and nutrition support programs.     

Does Overconfidence Affect Corporate Investment? CEO Overconfidence Measures Revisited

This article presents the growing research area of Behavioural Corporate Finance in the context of one specific example: distortions in corporate investment due to CEO overconfidence. We first review the relevant psychology and experimental evidence on overconfidence. We then summarise the results of Malmendier and Tate (2005a) on the impact of overconfidence on corporate investment. We present supplementary evidence on the relationship between CEOs’ press portrayals and overconfident investment decisions. This alternative approach to measuring overconfidence, developed in Malmendier and Tate (2005b), relies on the perception of outsiders rather than the CEO's own actions. The robustness of the results across such diverse proxies jointly corroborates previous findings and suggests new avenues to measuring executive overconfidence.