Zur Entscheidung y>y0 aufgrund der Messung einer korrelierten Variablen

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine optimale Strategie im Sinne des minimalen erwarteten Verlustes für die beiden Entscheidungeny>y _o undyy _o aufgrund der Messungen einer mitY positiv korrelierten, einfacher und/oder billiger zugänglichen ZufallsvariablenX abgeleitet. Dabei wird angenommen, daßX undY nach einer bivariaten Normalverteilung mit bekannten Parametern verteilt sind und die Entscheidungyy _o getroffen wird, wennx größer ist als ein zu bestimmendesx _o, und die Entscheidungy>y _o, wennx gleich oder kleiner als diesesx _o ist. Für die Bestimmung des optimalenx _o werden zunächst die Kosten für die beiden Fehlentscheidungen jeweils als konstant vorausgesetzt, in einem weiteren Ansatz wird jedoch für die Mißklassifikationyy _o eine mity exponentiell wachsende Risikofunktion angenommen. Um die relative Häufigkeit der zu erwartenden Fehlklassifikationen abschätzen zu können, wird schließlich die bedingte WahrscheinlichkeitP(x>x _o,y) errechnet.

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Summary An optimal strategy, with minimum expected risk, for the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o is constructed on the basis of the measurement of a variableX, which is positively correlated withY and can be measured more easily and/or with smaller expense. A bivariate normal distribution with known parameters is assumed forX andY. For the observationsx a limitx _o is aimed at, so that the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o are taken ifx>x orxx _o respectively. Optimal values ofx _o are first calculated under the assumption of constant losses for the two misclassifications (x>x _o ifyy _o andxx _o ify>y _o). In a further approach the loss for a wrong decisionyy _o is assumed to increase exponentially withy. Finally the conditional probabilityP (x>x _o\y) is calculated to get an assessment of the relative frequencies of wrong decisions to be expected.

     

Charitable life insurance--the ideal deferred gift

As financial pressures on non-profits rise, fund raisers are constantly searching for alternative income sources. Life insurance may be one of them.     

Cow-calf profitability and leptin genotyping

Profitability of cow-calf production is determined largely by market prices, calf weaning weights, and cow productive life. While producers individually have no effect on prices, weaning weights and productive life have genetic influences and hence can be altered by selection programs implemented by producers. We investigate the impact of a mutation in the leptin gene (exon 2; single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] 305) on cow-calf profitability. Prior research shows that this mutation has effects on performance and traits of fed cattle and milk production in dairy cows. Using data from a teaching-research herd, we find that it is also associated with calf weaning weights and cow productive life. A bio-economic stochastic simulation demonstrates that the mutation has statistically positive impacts on profits, suggesting that producers can profitably make use of this information.     

The Ethical Mutual Fund Performance Debate: New Evidence from Canada

Although the academic interest in ethical mutual fund performance has developed steadily, the evidence to date is mainly sample-specific. To tackle this critique, new research should extend to unexplored countries. Using this as a motivation, we examine the performance and risk sensitivities of Canadian ethical mutual funds vis-à-vis their conventional peers. In order to overcome the methodological deficiencies most prior papers suffered from, we use performance measurement approaches in the spirit of Carhart (1997, Journal of Finance 52(1): 57–82) and Ferson and Schadt (1996, Journal of Finance 51(2): 425–461). In doing so, we investigate the aggregated performance and investment style of ethical and conventional mutual funds and allow for time variation in the funds’ systematic risk. Our␣Canadian evidence supports the conjecture that any␣performance differential between ethical mutual funds and their conventional peers is statistically insignificant.      

Marketing messbar machen — die wirkung von empfehlungsnetzwerken auf die marketing performance

Netzwerke und Kooperationen sind entscheidende Instrumente zur Steigerung des Unternehmenswertes. Bisher haben sich Ans?tze hier auf die Unternehmensseite (Wertsch?pfungs-, Entwicklungsund Vertriebsnetzwerke) konzentriert. In jüngster Zeit rücken auch Netzwerke auf Nachfragerseite etwa in Form von Kommunikations- und Empfehlungsnetzwerken zunehmend in den Blickpunkt. Solche sozialen Netzwerke k?nnen gerade durch Marketingma?nahmen initiiert und gestaltet werden. Sie sind zentrale Stellhebel zur Steigerung der Marketing Performance und somit zur Legitimierung der Marketingfunktion.     

The Economics of State Subsidies in Early Stage Financing

We analyze the effect of state subsidies on early stage investments. In a two‐period investment model with incomplete stage financing contracts, we describe optimal and second‐best investment levels. Optimality depends on external effects: given that private early stage financing generates positive external effects, the subsidies might be designed to use scarce state money most efficiently to mobilize private investment capital. However, a subsidy might also contribute to greater efficiency of the contractual relationship itself without regard to external effects. Refinancing subsidies can be optimal under both perspectives and are always optimal under last of the two approaches. The comparison of the main types of subsidies, i.e. refinancing subsidies, guarantees and direct investments, speaks against the use of guarantees. Finally, we show that our results do also hold if some investors (e.g. venture capitalists) have a superior screening capability.     

Parental background and other-regarding preferences in children

Other-regarding preferences are important for establishing and maintaining cooperative outcomes. In this paper, we study how the formation of other-regarding preferences during childhood is related to parental background. Our subjects, aged 4–12 years, are classified into other-regarding types based on simple binary-choice dictator games. The main finding is that the children of parents with low education are less altruistic, more selfish, and more likely to be weakly spiteful. This link is robust to controlling for a rich set of children’s characteristics and class fixed effects. It also stands out against the overall development of preferences, as we find children to become more altruistic, less selfish, and less likely to be weakly spiteful with increasing age. The results, supported by a complementary analysis of World Values Survey data, suggest an important role of socialization in the formation of other-regarding preferences.     

Antecedents of M&A success: The role of strategic complementarity,cultural fit,and degree and speed of integration

In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of M&A success. We integrate fundamental constructs of different schools and discuss their interdependencies with M&A success. Our theoretical framework was tested empirically across a sample of 106 SME transactions in the machinery, electronic, and logistic industries in the German‐speaking part of Central Europe. The results of our study support the demand for an integrative perspective and theory on M&A. M&A success is a function of strategic complementarity, cultural fit, and the degree of integration. Strategic complementarity also positively influences cultural fit and the degree of integration. Cultural fit positively influences M&A success, but surprisingly has a negative impact on the speed and degree of integration. The degree of integration is positively related to speed of integration. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overtime Work and Overtime Compensation in Germany

Sharing the available stock of work more fairly is a popular concern in the public policy debate. One policy proposal is to reduce overtime work in order to allow the employment of more people. This paper suggests that such a concept faces major problems. Using Germany as a case study, it is shown that the group of workers with the highest risks of becoming unemployed, namely the unskilled, also exhibit low levels of overtime work. Those who work overtime, namely the skilled, face excess demand on the labour market. Since skilled and unskilled workers are largely complements in production, a general reduction in overtime will lead to less production and hence also to a decline in the level of unskilled employment. The paper provides empirical support for this line of argument. It is also shown that paid overtime work has lost relative importance over time.