Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS*

Two different approaches intend to resolve the ‘puzzling’ slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996) , Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non‐linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ‘classical’ PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46) , the BS effect, suggests that a non‐constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition‐in‐deviation non‐linear adjustment mechanism towards non‐constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non‐tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half‐life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models.     

Liquidity, Labels and Medium-Term Notes

We suggest that the medium-term note market provides an excellent laboratory for exploring the relationships between yield, liquidity, and the label affixed to a financial instrument. Crabbe and Turner (1995) examined the liquidity issue and uncovered the counter-intuitive result that issue size is unrelated to liquidity. Their study failed to examine a potential channel for a liquidity effect, however, in the form of multiple issues from a single, typically large, MTN registration filing. We find evidence that file size is significantly related to yield in a number of instances. Several other proxies for liquidity, such as frequency of issue, are also sometimes significantly related to yields. Contrary to Crabbe and Turner (1995) , we find that labeling a security an MTN can have an impact on its yield. The label "note" also appears to matter for yield in some instances.     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor ( 2001 ), if the true DGP is nonlinear, the temporally aggregated data could exhibit misleading properties regarding the adjustment speeds. We examine the effects of different levels of temporal aggregation on estimates of ESTAR models of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sequential estimate for linear regression models with uncertain number of effective variables

As a result of novel data collection technologies, it is now common to encounter data in which the number of explanatory variables collected is large, while the number of variables that actually contribute to the model remains small. Thus, a method that can identify those variables with impact on the model without inferring other noneffective ones will make analysis much more efficient. Many methods are proposed to resolve the model selection problems under such circumstances, however, it is still unknown how large a sample size is sufficient to identify those “effective” variables. In this paper, we apply sequential sampling method so that the effective variables can be identified efficiently, and the sampling is stopped as soon as the “effective” variables are identified and their corresponding regression coefficients are estimated with satisfactory accuracy, which is new to sequential estimation. Both fixed and adaptive designs are considered. The asymptotic properties of estimates of the number of effective variables and their coefficients are established, and the proposed sequential estimation procedure is shown to be asymptotically optimal. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimation method, and a diabetes data set is used as an example.     

The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests

Recent research has reported the lack of correct size in stationarity test for PPP deviations within a linear framework. However, theoretically well motivated non-linear models, such as the ESTAR, appear to parsimoniously fit the PPP data and provide an explanation for the PPP ‘puzzle’. Employing Monte Carlo experiments the size and power of the non-linear tests are analysed against a variety of nonstationary hypotheses. Aslo the ESTAR model is fitted to data from high inflation economies. The results provide further support for ESTAR specification.     

Policy evaluation as science: a critical assessment

During theh last few years policy evaluation has become an important area of research. Urban and regional policies have been subjected to more detailed scrutiny than ever before. Yet the gowing body of evaluative research remains isolated from many wider debates in the social and economic sciences. This can be attributed partly to the predilection for scientific methods, caused by the apparent certainty and objectivity they confer. This orientatioin is reflected in the tendency to separate evaluation from the policy process; the narrow perspective of many evaluative studies; the emphasis on quantification; the mechanical approach to analysis; and the inattention paid to undestanding causal processes.     

Expected utility theory and experimental utility measurement, 1950–1985. From confidence to scepticism

Abstract

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the EUT-based measurement of utility of the 1950s to the scepticism that, from the mid-1970s, haunted the validity of EUT as well as the significance of the utility measures obtained through it. By exploring the diverse aspects and causes of this trajectory, the paper covers new ground in the history of both decision theory and utility measurement.