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This paper generalizes existing econometric models for censored competing risks by introducing a new flexible specification based on a piecewise linear baseline hazard, time‐varying regressors, and unobserved individual heterogeneity distributed as an infinite mixture of generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) densities, nesting the gamma kernel as a special case. A common correlated latent time effect induces dependence among risks. Our model is based on underlying latent exit decisions in continuous time while only a time interval containing the exit time is observed, as is common in economic data. We do not make the simplifying assumption of discretizing exit decisions—our competing risk model setup allows for latent exit times of different risk types to be realized within the same time period. In this setting, we derive a tractable likelihood based on scaled GIG Laplace transforms and their higher‐order derivatives. We apply our approach to analyzing the determinants of unemployment duration with exits to jobs in the same industry or a different industry among unemployment insurance recipients on nationally representative individual‐level survey data from the US Department of Labor. Our approach allows us to conduct a counterfactual policy experiment by changing the replacement rate: we find that the impact of its change on the probability of exit from unemployment is inelastic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Jerry Coakley Ana-María Fuertes María-Teresa Prez 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2003,27(11-12):2219
This paper analyses the contribution of various numerical approaches to making the estimation of threshold autoregressive time series more efficient. It relies on the computational advantages of QR factorizations and proposes Givens transformations to update these factors for sequential LS problems. By showing that the residual sum of squares is a continuous rational function over threshold intervals it develops a new fitting method based on rational interpolation and the standard necessary optimality condition. Taking as benchmark a simple grid search, the paper illustrates via Monte Carlo simulations the efficiency gains of the proposed tools. 相似文献
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Jerry L. Petr 《Journal of economic issues》2013,47(2):561-569
Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment, and political crises since 2007. We detail the challenges involved in modeling individual moments of the crisis through the lens of balance sheets and transactions matrices among sectors of the Irish society. We conclude with a series of recommendations for models of small open economies. 相似文献
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We derive the formula for the unilateral price effects of mergers of two products with linear demand in the general asymmetric situation. The formula uses the same information required to calculate upward pricing pressure in the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines. 相似文献
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In this paper, we introduce a new Poisson mixture model for count panel data where the underlying Poisson process intensity is determined endogenously by consumer latent utility maximization over a set of choice alternatives. This formulation accommodates the choice and count in a single random utility framework with desirable theoretical properties. Individual heterogeneity is introduced through a random coefficient scheme with a flexible semiparametric distribution. We deal with the analytical intractability of the resulting mixture by recasting the model as an embedding of infinite sequences of scaled moments of the mixing distribution, and newly derive their cumulant representations along with bounds on their rate of numerical convergence. We further develop an efficient recursive algorithm for fast evaluation of the model likelihood within a Bayesian Gibbs sampling scheme. We apply our model to a recent household panel of supermarket visit counts. We estimate the nonparametric density of three key variables of interest-price, driving distance, and their interaction-while controlling for a range of consumer demographic characteristics. We use this econometric framework to assess the opportunity cost of time and analyze the interaction between store choice, trip frequency, search intensity, and household and store characteristics. We also conduct a counterfactual welfare experiment and compute the compensating variation for a 10%-30% increase in Walmart prices. 相似文献
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Abstract. This paper explores the extent to which majority rule is invulnerable to manipulation by individuals and coalitions, even
when majority rule is used to select more than one alternative. The resulting rule may or may not be strategy-proof, depending
on the size of the coalitions that can form, and on the nature of the individual preferences over sets of alternatives. No
individual can manipulate with respect to a wide family of preferences over sets. The only restriction on the domain of true and revealed
individual preferences is that the selection rule is always well defined.
Received: 1 November 1999 / Accepted: 7 May 2001
We thank two anonymous referees for suggestions that have significantly improved the paper. We are also grateful to l'Université
de Caen for sponsoring a Workshop on Social Choice Theory, where a first draft of this paper was presented in May, 1999, and
to the workshop participants for helpful observations. Work on the final version of the paper was done while one of the authors
was a guest of the Project on Intergenerational Equity supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology of
Japan. We are grateful to the Ministry and to the project leader, Professor Kotaro Suzumura, for their support. 相似文献