The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

Chinese tax changes and offshore comparisons

Lipsher delivered the following observations and remarks in Shanghai to a group consisting primarily of Chinese tax professionals. The size and composition of the group marked an achievement that validated the close to two decades that Lipsher has lived in China—especially since January 1, 1994, when the first national tax law came into effect. He was in China here when the first, six‐page tax law went into effect. Simultaneously, on that very same day, a new U.S. tax law came into effect. Only that law was 1,447 pages long! His remarks offer an overview of tax‐law changes in China and the advantages of offshore tax benefits from the perspective of an American who has lived and worked in the Chinese business environment as a tax expert as it has evolved and matured. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Growth and welfare effects of stabilizing innovation cycles

We consider a simple model of innovation where equilibrium cycles may arise and show that, whenever actual capital accumulation falls below its balanced growth path, subsidizing innovators by taxing consumers has stabilizing effects, promotes sustained growth and increases welfare. Further, if the steady state is unstable under laissez faire, the introduction of the subsidy can make the steady state stable. Such a policy has beneficial effects as it fosters output growth along the transitional adjustment path, and increases the welfare of current and future generations.     

BEN BERNANKE AND THE ZERO BOUND

From 2000 to 2003, when Ben Bernanke was a professor and then a Fed Governor, he wrote extensively about monetary policy at the zero bound on interest rates. He advocated aggressive stimulus policies, such as a money‐financed tax cut and an inflation target of 3%–4%. Yet, after U.S. interest rates hit zero in 2008, the Fed under Chairman Bernanke took more cautious actions. This paper asks when and why Bernanke changed his mind about zero‐bound policy. The answer, at one level, is that he was influenced by analysis from the Fed staff that was presented at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of June 2003. This answer raises another question: why did the staff's views influence Bernanke so strongly? I seek answers to this question in the social psychology literature on group decision‐making. (JEL E52, E58)     

Developing global products and marketing strategies: A rejoinder

In this issue of JAMS, Dr. Lyn Amine presents a “comment and an extension” to our previously published article. Such efforts are often constructive, and in this spirit, we present a discussion responding to Dr. Amine’s comments. Our response, combined with Dr. Amine’s comments, hopefully will provide constructive research avenues in international product and marketing strategy development. He has published extensively in the areas of international marketing and retailing. His research and publication areas include international marketing, high tech marketing, and advertising management. His research and publication interests include sales management, international marketing, and retail management.