The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Managing ambiguity: merger activity in the nonprofit housing sector

Merger behaviour in the nonprofit sector has been relatively neglected, yet has considerable marketing implications. This paper draws on a range of sources to explore the nature of merger activity in the nonprofit housing industry. It locates mergers within debates about inter-organisational strategies, and explores the context, extent, motivations for and regulation of mergers in the housing industry. While there are many similarities in environmental stimuli to and processes of negotiating mergers between the profit-distributing and nonprofit sectors, there are some distinctive features. This research explores the ambiguous nature of the merger activity among housing organisations. This ambiguity infects the terminology and record-keeping systems and helps to explain a significant gap between rhetoric and activity. Such ambiguity may be more than a negotiating strategy. It may represent the attempt to manage conflicting pressures to market nonprofit organisations as ‘sensitively serving the needs of society’ by on the one hand being competitive and efficient while on the other remaining value based and locally accountable. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers

The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the road transport ecosystem will change the manner of collisions. CAVs are expected to optimize the safety of road users and the wider environment, while alleviating traffic congestion and maximizing occupant comfort. The net result is a reduction in the frequency of motor vehicle collisions, and a reduction in the number of injuries currently seen as “preventable.” A changing risk ecosystem will introduce new challenges and opportunities for primary insurers. Prior studies have highlighted the economic benefit provided by reductions in the frequency of hazardous events. This economic benefit, however, will be offset by the economic detriment incurred by emerging risks and the increased scrutiny placed on existing risks. We posit four plausible scenarios detailing how an introduction of these technologies could result in a larger relative rate of injury claims currently characterized as tail‐risk events. In such a scenario, the culmination of these losses will present as a second “hump” in actuarial loss models. We discuss how CAV risk factors and traffic dynamics may combine to make a second “hump” a plausible reality, and discuss a number of opportunities that may arise for primary insurers from a changing road environment.     

Launching a new venture

With the current economic storm raging, can a better understanding of business models make for smoother sailing for today's entrepreneur? What strategies can entrepreneurs adopt to help them weather this storm? John Mullins has researched entrepreneurial ventures and offers some valuable insights.     

Capital is king!

The business world is, hopefully, emerging from a mega-downturn. So, should the savvy businessman be focused on the top line (revenues) or the bottom line (profits)? Says John Mullins : neither! Working capital is what companies like Costco need to survive, and it may also be precisely what your business needs to prosper.     

Engineered nanomaterials: risk perception,regulation and insurance

Concerns surrounding the health risk of engineered nanomaterials, effective regulation and the lack of specifically tailored insurance products for the nanotechnology sector are putting the industry’s long-term economic viability at risk. From the perspective of the underwriter, this article speculates on the relationship between risk perception, regulation and insurability. In the nanotechnology sector, regulators are currently failing to keep pace with innovation, and insurers generally lack guiding principles for underwriting occupational risk from nanomaterial exposure. Such vulnerabilities when combined with misguided risk perceptions can lead to the overpricing of risk transfer and ill-conceived regulatory initiatives, thus potentially exhausting resources and stifling innovation in the sector. In the absence of well-developed regulatory protocols, the insurance industry has, and will continue, to occupy a key role as an effective lobby in terms of improved risk management practice. We suggest that the insurance industry will increasingly rely on control banding frameworks and ‘risk mitigation at source’ methods developed in conjunction with their clients to manage severe acute diversifiable risks. Long tail risk will continue to represent a serious challenge to insurers and regulators. In the meantime, insurers will have to bridge their current needs with improvised solutions. As an example of one possible solution, we outline a framework that utilizes financial instruments to hedge an insurer’s exposure to uncertain estimates of these long-term risks.     

New Product Development in Rapidly Changing Markets: An Exploratory Study

Rapid technological change can be both a blessing and a curse. For example, investors and firms of all sizes hope to reap the rewards that may arise from the apparent convergence of the computer, telecommunications, and entertainment industries. With the high level of uncertainty inherent to such rapidly changing markets, however, those potentially dazzling returns are counterbalanced by a daunting level of risk. John Mullins and Daniel Sutherland suggest that firms operating in such markets require NPD practices that can mitigate risk, manage uncertainty, and, of course, increase the likelihood of new product success. To gain insight into the NPD practices that can meet those challenges, they conducted in-depth interviews with managers who were directly involved in NPD projects at US WEST, Inc., a large, multinational firm in the telecommunications industry. The study focused on identifying practices that help the firm bring new products into rapidly changing markets quickly, efficiently, and effectively. A key objective of their study was to go beyond the basics—for example, the use of cross-functional teams—to identify specific practices that allow the firm to address the various levels of uncertainty that characterize its markets. They identify three levels of uncertainty that confront firms operating in rapidly changing markets. First, potential customers cannot easily articulate needs that a new technology may fulfill. Consequently, NPD managers are uncertain about the market opportunities that a new technology offers. Second, NPD managers are uncertain about how to turn the new technologies into products that meet customer needs. This uncertainty arises, not only from customers' inability to articulate their needs, but also from managers' difficulties in translating technological advancements into product features and benefits. Finally, senior management faces uncertainty about how much capital to invest in pursuit of rapidly changing markets as well as when to invest. The study identifies six practices that help the firm address the uncertainty and risk inherent in its rapidly changing markets. For example, market research in this firm's NPD process focuses more on probing than it does on measuring. Involvement of prospective customers in idea generation and the use of prototypes early in the NPD process help the firm uncover customer needs and market opportunities. Large-scale, quantitative market research focuses primarily on determining market size and price points.     

Effects of Organizational and Decision-Maker Factors on New Product Risk Taking

Using samples of evening MBA students having considerable managerial experience, two experiments were conducted, through which we explore the effects of organizational and decision-maker factors on managers' new product investment decisions. Subjects were asked to choose among new product development projects having equal investments and expected values but differing degrees of risk. Riskier projects were chosen by managers whose organizationally imposed goals were based on aspirational versus survival reference points, whose prior project decisions had resulted in the accumulation of additional financial resources, for whom prior project outcomes were attributed to the manager's guidance of the project versus competitive factors, and by managers whose propensities to take risks were higher. These results have important implications for the design and staffing of new product decision processes, for the creation of organizational cultures that foster new product risk taking, and for other organizational practices.