Inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan1

In January 1992, Kazakhstan initiated a reform programme to move towards market-determined prices. The price liberalization process was characterized by large relative price shifts and an increase in the overall price level towards those observed in market economies. The paper shows how the piecemeal manner in which prices were liberalized resulted in strong relative price variability over a prolonged period of time, against a background of high inflation. Convergence towards international relative and absolute price levels has progressed but is not complete, with prices for energy and services in particular still below market economy levels.     

Connectivity and work dominance: Panacea or pariah?

Does technologically-supported work connectivity help young managers and professionals under the age of 45 deal with the pressing demands of their work, or does the presence of work-connecting technologies exacerbate the tendencies of this talent force to engage in more work and longer working hours? Utilizing both surveys and follow-up focus group interactions, this study found that while work-connecting technologies permitted a greater range of options regarding when and where work was done, this same connectivity provided constant availability to work and often drove expectations that more must be done, thereby increasing the likelihood of longer work hours and—surprisingly—leading to a diminished sense of flexibility. Study participants offer insights regarding the thought processes behind these outcomes. Perspectives on how emerging leaders and their organizations can effectively manage and achieve the potential of enhanced connectivity are provided. A four-phased approach is recommended. First, we discuss key cultural dynamics. Second, the role of organizational expectations and practices is emphasized. Third, we consider a set of responsibilities for organizational leaders, whose actions and cues provide the most vivid clarity for young managers attempting to decide where to draw the work/life balance line. Finally, the challenge and responsibility of personal accountability is presented. Consideration of a work paradigm that reorients our thinking about traditional “face time,” and strives to bridge the gap between the potential and pervasive impact of work-connecting technologies, is also included.     

Cash balance pension plans: A case of standard-setting inadequacy

Accounting for and ownership of U.S. private employee pensions has long been a controversial and politically contested terrain. The uniqueness in the U.S. of using employers as the principal provider of pensions makes the reporting of pensions more problematic since the corporate employers providing pensions are not strictly accountable to only the pensioners. Over the last quarter century there has been a marked swing in power toward management and away from employees making it possible for increasing numbers of U.S. companies to switch from conventional defined benefit plans to cash balance plans. This paper provides a “case” study of how accounting standard-setters framed the pension reporting problem vis-à-vis how they frame the “reporting problem” in general. Utilizing various sources of commentary about the phenomenon of cash-balance conversions, we triangulate on the pension problem to demonstrate how current FASB disclosure rules fail to satisfy the condition of neutrality and how those rules have facilitated the shifting of economic risk from shareholders to employees.     

Back to the future. Is industry 4.0 a new tecno-organizational paradigm? Implications for Latin American countries

ABSTRACT

The objective of this article is to establish a dialogue between the recent ‘Industry 4.0’ (I4.0) literature and evolutionary neo-Schumpeterean studies about techno-organizational paradigms. In that direction, we wonder whether I4.0 constitutes a new paradigm, as it is assumed by the first group of literature, or it represents – until the moment – an intensification of key features of the information and communication technology (ICT) paradigm, following the second group of studies. Some questions are raised about the implications of I4.0 for developing countries (DEC), afterwards. Specifically, we reflect on the possibilities of these countries to identify and take advantage of new windows of opportunity, opened by the development and diffusion of these technologies. In this regard, the review of recent Latin American experience raises strong concerns regarding I4.0 as a new source of intra- and international heterogeneity, linked to the severe difficulties these countries have in appropriating these technologies in the form of productivity gains and quasi-rents. It seems that this is partially derived from weak technological, organizational, and connectivity capabilities paths of accumulation between institutions and actors.     

Credit Chains and Mortgage Crises

Here I examine a production economy with a financial sector that contains multiple layers of credit. The latter constitute credit chains that include a simple mortgage market. The focus is on the nature and contagion properties of credit chains in an economy where the financial sector plays a real allocating role, and agents have a serious choice of whether to default on mortgages or not. Multiple equilibria with different rates of default are observed, due to the presence of strategic complementarities. A liquidity crunch is associated with higher rates of default that can trigger a financial crisis as well as constrain the purchase of production factors, leading to reductions in welfare, together with potentially serious effects on real economic activity with the potential of causing deep and widespread recessions.     

Leapfrog standards: implications for nursing practice

Annually, thousands die unnecessarily as a result of preventable medical errors. Medical literature supports use of evidence-based standards to increase safety and improve the quality of health care. Nursing implications from three imposed standards are examined.     

Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM

Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.     

Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure

Analysis, model selection and forecasting in univariate time series models can be routinely carried out for models in which the model order is relatively small. Under an ARMA assumption, classical estimation, model selection and forecasting can be routinely implemented with the Box–Jenkins time domain representation. However, this approach becomes at best prohibitive and at worst impossible when the model order is high. In particular, the standard assumption of stationarity imposes constraints on the parameter space that are increasingly complex. One solution within the pure AR domain is the latent root factorization in which the characteristic polynomial of the AR model is factorized in the complex domain, and where inference questions of interest and their solution are expressed in terms of the implied (reciprocal) complex roots; by allowing for unit roots, this factorization can identify any sustained periodic components. In this paper, as an alternative to identifying periodic behaviour, we concentrate on frequency domain inference and parameterize the spectrum in terms of the reciprocal roots, and, in addition, incorporate Gegenbauer components. We discuss a Bayesian solution to the various inference problems associated with model selection involving a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. One key development presented is a new approach to forecasting that utilizes a Metropolis step to obtain predictions in the time domain even though inference is being carried out in the frequency domain. This approach provides a more complete Bayesian solution to forecasting for ARMA models than the traditional approach that truncates the infinite AR representation, and extends naturally to Gegenbauer ARMA and fractionally differenced models.     

Evaluating Industrial Relations Systems of OECD Countries from 1993 to 2005: A Two‐Dimensional Approach

This article uses both cross‐sectional and longitudinal methods to evaluate the national industrial relations systems of 30 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1993 to 2005. We adopt a pluralistic view of industrial relations that gives equal weight to efficiency and equity, along with a general systems model consisting of input, process and output. We rank each country in terms of a combined score of efficiency and equity. We find that the 30 OECD countries can be separated into three distinct groups (high on both equity and efficiency; high on efficiency but low on equity; moderate on equity and low on efficiency), and that these groups exhibit considerable stability over time.