Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

Product Unbundling in the Travel Industry: The Economics of Airline Bag Fees

This paper provides theory and evidence on airline bag fees, offering insights into a real‐world case of product unbundling. The theory predicts that an airline's fares should fall when it introduces a bag fee, but that the full‐trip price (the bag fee plus the new fare) could either rise or fall. The empirical evidence presented in the paper provides strong confirmation of the first prediction. The data also suggest that the average fare falls by less than the bag fee itself so that the full price of a trip rises for passengers who choose to check bags.     

Determining the Source of Inter-License Synergies in Two-Way Paging Networks

In the Federal Communication Commissions (FCC) regional narrowband personal communications services (PCS) license auction (auction #3), bidders paid a premium to provide advanced paging services on a nationwide basis as opposed to a regional scale. This paper investigates the potential source of inter-license synergy for two-way paging, the intended narrowband PCS application. Three sources of inter-license synergy are identified as possible candidates. One source, boundary interference, occurs when two distinct carriers operate in the same frequency in neighboring regions. Another source of synergy derives from the fact that neighboring regions may share common resources. A final source of synergy is the ability to offer seamless roaming.