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排序方式: 共有138条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Iain L. MacDonald 《Revue internationale de statistique》2014,82(2):296-308
There is by now a long tradition of using the EM algorithm to find maximum‐likelihood estimates (MLEs) when the data are incomplete in any of a wide range of ways, even when the observed‐data likelihood can easily be evaluated and numerical maximisation of that likelihood is available as a conceptually simple route to the MLEs. It is rare in the literature to see numerical maximisation employed if EM is possible. But with excellent general‐purpose numerical optimisers now available free, there is no longer any reason, as a matter of course, to avoid direct numerical maximisation of likelihood. In this tutorial, I present seven examples of models in which numerical maximisation of likelihood appears to have some advantages over the use of EM as a route to MLEs. The mathematical and coding effort is minimal, as there is no need to derive and code the E and M steps, only a likelihood evaluator. In all the examples, the unconstrained optimiser nlm available in R is used, and transformations are used to impose constraints on parameters. I suggest therefore that the following question be asked of proposed new applications of EM: Can the MLEs be found more simply and directly by using a general‐purpose numerical optimiser? 相似文献
2.
Niloufar Abourashchi Iain Clacher David Hillier Malcolm Kemp Qi Zhang 《European Journal of Finance》2016,22(13):1292-1319
We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTSignificant interest exists in the potential for electric vehicles (EVs) to be a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement. In order to establish the extent to which EVs will deliver abatement, however, a realistic understanding of the electricity and transport sector GHG emissions impacts arising from different approaches to integrating EVs into the power system is required. A key issue in this regard is the extent to which GHG emissions are a function of where and when EV charging will be enabled (or disabled) by the provision of recharging infrastructure and implementation of charging management strategies by the electricity industry. This article presents an investigation of the GHG emissions arising from electricity and gasoline consumption by plug-in hybrid EVs under a range of standard EV-power system integration scenarios. An assessment framework is presented, and GHG emissions from EV use are assessed for the New South Wales (NSW) and South Australian (SA) pools of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) using retrospective electricity system generation data for 2011. Results highlight that there is a range of possible outcomes depending on the integration scenario and emissions accounting approach used. This range illustrates value of a temporally explicit assessment approach in capturing the temporal alignment of electricity sector emission intensity and EV charging. Results also show the importance of a clean electricity generation mix in order for EVs to provide a GHG abatement benefit beyond what would be achieved by a hybrid (but non-plug-in) vehicle. The extent to which overnight charging in NSW is observed to produce higher emissions relative to unmanaged charging also illustrates a possible trade-off between GHG emissions and benefits for electricity industry from EV charging at times of low demand. 相似文献
5.
Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia
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Tom Kompas Pham Van Ha Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen Iain East Sharon Roche Graeme Garner 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2017,61(4):515-538
Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market. 相似文献
6.
Absorptive Capacity, Coauthoring Behavior, and the Organization of Research in Drug Discovery 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
We examine the interface between for-profit and publicly funded research in pharmaceuticals. Firms access upstream basic research through investments in absorptive capacity in the form of in-house basic research and 'pro-publication' internal incentives. Some firms also maintain extensive connections to the wider scientific community, which we measure using data on coauthorship of scientific papers between pharmaceutical company scientists and publicly funded researchers. 'Connectedness' is significantly correlated with firms' internal organization, as well as their performance in drug discovery. The estimated impact of 'connectedness' on private research productivity implies a substantial return to public investments in basic research. 相似文献
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The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find that the boom was unusually long and associated with neither particularly strong growth nor rising inflation in the economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing economic theory and argue that, while the “global savings glut” may account for the cycle's initial phase, other factors – such as the conduct of monetary policy and perceptions of declining macroeconomic risk – were more important from the mid-2000s onwards. We conclude by identifying some of the challenges now facing macroeconomics and policy. 相似文献
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A Dialogic Analysis of Organizational Learning 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
10.
Chongwoo Choe & Iain Fraser 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》1998,42(3):269-302
In recent years reducing the amount of waste generated by households has become an important policy issue in industrialised economies. It is no longer acceptable to discard waste without concern for environmental and natural resource issues. In an effort to reduce household waste various policy instruments such as kerbside charges, deposit-refund schemes, integrated sales tax exemptions and virgin material taxes, have been proposed and/or implemented. This article reviews the economics literature that has addressed household waste management. It is argued that a comprehensive modelling framework is necessary if the complex policy environment is to be accurately described. 相似文献