Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model*

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip‐specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995.     

The Impact of Mexico's Retraining Program on Employment and Wages

This article analyzes the impact and effectiveness of the Mexicanlabor retraining program for unemployed and displaced workers—Programade Becas de Capacitación para Trabajadores (PROBECAT).The strategy followed is to compare the post-training labormarket experiences of trainees with those of a comparison group—amatched sample of unemployed individuals who were eligible for,but did not participate in, PROBECAT. The results of this exercisesuggest that participation in PROBECAT reduced the mean durationof unemployment for both men and women trainees and increasedthe monthly earnings of men, but not of women. The results alsoindicate that the post-training earnings effect varied systematicallyby level of education attained, with the largest earnings increases(of about 28 to 37 percent) found for men with six to twelveyears of education.     

Reduced Form Auctions Revisited

This note uses the Theorem of the Alternative to prove new results on the implementability of general, asymmetric auctions, and to provide simpler proofs of known results for symmetric auctions. The tradeoff is that type spaces are taken to be finite.