Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

从中国—东盟自由贸易区进程看加快粤港澳更紧密经贸合作的紧迫性

粤港经济的优势互补,曾为大珠三角的经济腾飞作出了积极的贡献.在中国加入WTO以后,如何在WTO的框架内,促使粤港经济在更深更广的层次上合作就成了粤港经济发展的迫切需求.加入WTO后中国内地进一步提升对外开放水平,港澳对此更加关注提高与广东合作层次的问题.     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

股市波动、金融政策和宏观经济关系研究——基于因子VAR模型

通过因子分析从诸宏观经济变量中提取了金融政策因子和宏观经济状态因子,建立了基于VAR的股价波动、金融政策和宏观经济三变量回归模型。研究表明：金融政策影响股价的表现,而宏观经济状态对股价、股价对金融政策和宏观经济状态的影响均不显著;基于标准差的VAR（5）模型相对于基于收益率的VAR（3）模型能更好地刻画股市波动与金融政策、宏观经济三者之间的关系。     

强化企业社会责任，构建和谐社会——从“民工荒”现象谈起

企业社会责任关系到全社会的健康和谐发展问题。“民工荒”现象说明我国企业社会责任仍处于淡漠期。构建和谐社会必须要强化企业社会责任。     

跨国公司制造业R&D投资国别选择的实证研究——以美国跨国公司为例

本文以美国跨国公司为例,对跨国公司制造业海外R&D投资国别选择的影响因子进行了实证研究。结果表明,从世界范围看,跨国公司在东道国的FDI和东道国市场规模是影响跨国公司R&D投资的主要因子;仅就发展中国家而言,东道国市场规模并不影响跨国公司R&D投资;跨国公司的产业类别不同,其R&D投资国别选择的影响因子亦有差异。     

旅游业上市公司多元化经营能够降低公司风险吗？——基于2004—2012年A股上市公司数据的实证研究

我国的旅游业上市公司普遍存在进入房地产业、高新技术产业等行业的多元化经营现象。国内外学者对多元化经营与公司风险之间的关系展开了一系列的研究,但是没有得出一致的结论。截至目前,对旅游类企业多元化经营能否降低公司风险的研究仍较为欠缺。因此,文章以2004—2012年国内23家A股旅游业上市公司1的184个截面数据为样本,利用多元回归分析法检验了旅游业上市公司多元化经营对其公司风险的影响。旅游行业自身的行业特征及其多元化特点使得针对旅游业上市公司多元化经营行为的分行业研究产生了与以往整体层面的研究截然不同的结论：旅游业上市公司多元化经营能够降低公司的财务风险,但无法降低公司的经营风险。进一步对多元化类型进行区分后发现：旅游业上市公司相关多元化水平的提升可以显著地降低公司的财务风险,但无法显著地降低公司的经营风险;而非相关多元化水平的提升无法显著地降低公司的财务风险与经营风险。基于上述研究成果,文章从促进融资体系多元化、完善主业发挥自身优势、谨慎选择多元化行业3个角度对旅游业上市公司的多元化发展提出了建议。     

中国农村通信消费现状分析

本文利用较为翔实的通信普及率、通信消费支出等相关数据，分析了近年来中国农村通信发展和农村通信消费等环节存在的亟待解决的矛盾和问题。分析表明，当前中国农村通信发展和农村通信消费仍比较薄弱，值得各级政府和通信运营企业充分关注。采取切实可行的对策措施，加快农村通信发展，提升农村通信消费水平，对于解决好“三农”问题，统筹城乡发展，建立和谐的信息社会，具有重要意义。     

The effect of travel purpose and self-image congruency on preference toward airline livery design and perceived service quality

This paper examines travelers’ preference for airline livery design, which is an important component of sensory experience for tourists. Based on surveys of both U.S. and South Korean respondents, this study finds that airline livery preference depends on travel purpose (i.e. business vs. vacation). Designs preferred by the two travel segments differ in terms of color tone, hue, line, and shape. Business traveler-preferred designs signal punctual, efficient, classy, and safe service; while vacation traveler-preferred designs elicit feelings of fun, friendly, and exotic service. It is also shown that travelers prefer airline livery that is congruent with their situational self-image, depending on the travel occasion at hand. In fact, self-image congruency of design is approximately half of the variance in airline livery preference. Finally, results show that self-image congruency also increases perceived service quality.     

When we are onstage,we smile: The effects of emotional labor on employee work outcomes

A growing body of literature has confirmed the deleterious effects of emotional labor on service employees. The study adds to it by investigating two hypothesized antecedents to emotional labor; affectivity and empathy which is conceptualized as a two-dimensional construct composed of emotional contagion and empathic concern. It also examines the impact of emotional labor on job satisfaction and exhaustion. The results confirmed a two-dimensional structure of emotional labor, emotive dissonance, and emotive effort. Hospitality employees with higher positive affect tend to experience less emotive dissonance while individuals with higher negative affect exert more effort to enact emotional labor. A positive relationship was found between emotional contagion and emotive dissonance, and emotive effort and job satisfaction. The results also suggested a negative relationship between emotive effort and emotional exhaustion. An unexpected negative relationship was found between emotional dissonance and emotional exhaustion. Managerial implications discuss training and acting techniques to more effectively manage employee emotional labor.