Use of the principal component method in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the logit model

The maximum likelihood estimates of a qualitative response market are solved by an iterative procedure. When severe multicollinearity exists among the explanatory variables, this procedure may fail to converge. In this note, using a bank-failure model, we demonstrate how the principle component method can make the iterative procedure converge when it fails to do so in the untransformed model.     

Overcoming coordination failure using a mechanism based on gradualism and endogeneity

We examine three tools that can enhance coordination success in a repeated multiple-choice coordination game. Gradualism means that the game starts as an easy coordination problem and moves gradually to a more difficult one. The Endogenous Ascending mechanism implies that a gradual increase in the upper bound of coordination occurs only if coordination with the Pareto superior equilibrium in a stage game is attained. The Endogenous Descending mechanism requires that when the game’s participants fail to coordinate, the level of the next coordination game be adjusted such that the game becomes simpler. We show that gradualism may not always work, but in such instances, its effect can be reinforced by endogeneity. Our laboratory experiment provides evidence that a mechanism that combines three tools, herein termed the “Gradualism with Endogenous Ascending and Descending (GEAD)” mechanism, works well. We discuss how the GEAD mechanism can be applied to real-life situations that suffer from coordination failure.     

Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation

This paper analyzes the movements of tradable goods prices in Japan. The import price indices and the export price indices are matched with the domestic wholesale price indices at the most detailed level available for Japan, and the pricing behavior in the yen appreciation period (1985–1995) is examined. In the import-side analysis, we investigate how far the price movements under currency appreciation deviate from the law of one price. We find that internal–external price differentials have surprisingly expanded for most of the products since 1985. For a number of commodities, the import prices do not decline as far as the exchange rate appreciates, and the domestic wholesale prices do not decrease as far as the import prices decline. Although the expanded price gaps cannot necessarily be interpreted as a result of deliberate trade barriers, they suggest that some sort of handicap is imposed on imported goods and the large fraction of rent generated by the yen appreciation is intercepted in the middle. In the export-side analysis, the relationship between the globalization of firms' activities and export pass-through is investigated. Our cross-sectional regression analysis indicates that the export path-through rates tend to be low when the value added ratios of foreign production of Japanese firms are high. Low export pass-through under currency appreciation is often interpreted as a result of firms' attempts to keep their foreign market share, but the globalization of firms' activities may be another important factor in lowering the pass-through.J. Japan Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 611–641. Department of Economics, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108, Japan.     

The proposal and validity of the Customer Science Dual System--The key to corporate management innovation

A future successful global marketer must develop an excellent quality marketing system that impresses users and continuously provides excellent, quality products in a timely manner through corporate management. In this study, the authors proposed the Customer Science Dual System, CS-TMNS ＆ CS-SDSM. For the purpose of innovating strategic product development systems so called Customer Value Creative System, the Total Marketing Network System, CS-TMNS is established. In addition, for intelligent utilization of the established CS-TMNS, statistical science is incorporated so as to create the Strategic Designing Support Methods, CS-SDSM, as a new approach to the creation of wants that are vital to product planning and designing. Concretely, the author will also introduce the effectiveness of this system that reflects latent customer needs through scientific marketing application examples via Automobile Design Profile for the Younger Generation.     

Designing Vehicle Form Based on Subjective Customer Impressions

Automotive body styling is determined by two key design elements： profile and form. In recent years, the authors have been able to quantify profile designs that embody consumer preferences and verify the effectiveness of these efforts. This study focuses on form, quantifying parameters like roundness and angularity in order to identify the relationship of these qualities to customer preferences. In order to fully understand the relationship between form as a whole （which consists of front, side, and rear elements） and consumer preference, 3D-CAD software and statistics are used to quantify form. An eye-tracking camera is then used to analyze line of sight and establish a cause-and-effect relationship between form and where customers focus their attention, and the desired insights are obtained. Keywords： automotive, designing vehicle form, 3D-CAD     

Bayesian Statistical Computations of Nonlinear Financial Time Series Models: A Survey with Illustrations

A survey of Bayesian statistical computations of quadratureformula, Laplace approximation, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms ispresentedand their applications to nonlinear financial time series models arediscussed.     

Asian Financial Crisis.Prologue and the Case of Thailand

We suggest that the Asian financial crisis began because of theinconsistent exchange rate system and miss-management within Thailand. We showthat prior tothe Asian financial crisis the Thai Baht against the Yen followed the theoryofpurchasing power parity but the Baht against the U.S. Dollar did not. We givebriefsummaries of the papers included in this issue.     

Entry of Small and Medium Enterprises and Economic Dynamism in Japan

In examining the evolution of small and medium enterprises in Japan in the postwar period, this paper shows that entry rates for new firms have declined sharply in the last quarter century or so, a trend observed across most sectors of the economy as well as across most firm-size categories. To explain this pattern, the paper investigates the determinants of entry in Japan. Among other factors, it finds that cost disadvantages owing to small scale and the shortage of technical resources are significant deterrents to entry. It also finds that the availability of government-directed credit deters entry which suggests that, in their current form, such credit programs protect incumbents. Among positive factors, it finds that subcontracting opportunities promote entry which suggests that the subcontracting system in Japan is open to newcomers and helps give them a foothold in the economy.