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1.
John V. Farr Isaac J. Faber Anirban Ganguly W. Andy Martin Steven L. Larson 《工程经济学家》2016,61(3):207-222
Simulation-based costing (SBC) has been slow to be adopted by the traditional cost estimating community. This can be attributed to many factors, including complexity, how to gather data and develop probabilistic inputs, cost of SBC software, and a lack of understanding of the benefits of developing cost versus risk profiles. This article presents an overview of how SBC can be effectively utilized for early phase life cycle cost (LCC) estimation. A formal process for conducting LCC incorporating SBC is presented not only to provide a structured approach but to also convey to stakeholders how such a study is conducted. This article also presents a case study where total ownership cost versus risk profiles were developed using this proposed process in order to support budgetary and planning considerations for a large environmental remediation project. This research argues that SBC is needed during the concept exploration phase because this is when budgets are often fixed and expectations set. 相似文献
2.
This article assesses the ability of the Rotterdam Model (RM) and of three versions of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to recover the time-varying elasticities of a true demand system and to satisfy theoretical regularity. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the RM performs better than the linear-approximate AIDS at recovering the signs of all the time-varying elasticities. More importantly, the RM has the ability to track the paths of time-varying income elasticities, even when the true values are very high. The linear-approximate AIDS, not only performs poorly at recovering the time-varying elasticities but also badly approximates the nonlinear AIDS. 相似文献
3.
Despite overwhelming empirical evidence of the failure of factor price equalization, most teaching of international trade theory (even at the graduate level) assumes that economies are incompletely specialized and that factor price equalization holds. The behavior of trading economies in the absence of factor price equalization is not well understood, and some major textbook treatments err. The authors map regions of specialization and diversification for standard competitive economies and show how outputs, goods, and factor prices change as economies move within and across different regions of diversification and specialization. Two examples of how the analysis can enrich graduate-level trade teaching are given: the substitutability of goods trade and factor movements, and debates over the trade and inequality. 相似文献
4.
Summary. This paper studies monotone risk aversion, the aversion to monotone, mean-preserving increase in risk (Quiggin [21]), in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, characterized by two functions, a utility function u in conjunction with a probability-perception function f. Monotone mean-preserving increases in risk are closely related to the notion of comparative
dispersion introduced by Bickel and Lehmann [3,4] in Non-parametric Statistics. We present a characterization of the pairs (u,f) of monotone risk averse decision makers, based on an index of greediness
G
u
of the utility function u and an index of pessimism
P
f
of the probability perception function f: the decision maker is monotone risk averse if and only if
. The index of greediness (non-concavity) of u is the supremum of
taken over
. The index of pessimism of f is the infimum of
taken over 0 < v < 1. Thus,
, with G
u
= 1 iff u is concave. If
then
, i.e., f is majorized by the identity function. Since P
f
= 1 for Expected Utility maximizers,
forces u to be concave in this case; thus, the characterization of risk aversion as
is a direct generalization from EU to RDEU. A novel element is that concavity of u is not necessary. In fact, u must be concave only if P
f
= 1.Received: 10 April 2001, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers:
D81.
Correspondence to: Michéle CohenAlain Chateauneuf, Michéle Cohen, Isaac Meilijson: We are most grateful to Mark Machina, Peter Wakker and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions and comments. 相似文献
5.
J. Isaac Miller 《Economic Modelling》2011,28(4):1782-1792
Standard target zone exchange rate models are based on nonlinear functions of unobserved economic fundamentals, which are assumed to be bounded, similarly to the target zone exchange rates themselves. Using a novel estimation and testing strategy, I show how this key but often overlooked assumption may be tested. Empirical results cast doubt on its validity in practice, providing a reason for well-documented empirical difficulties of these models in the literature. 相似文献
6.
We provide a model of boundedly rational, multidimensional learning and characterize when beliefs will converge to the truth. Agents maintain beliefs as marginal probabilities instead of joint probabilities, and agents' information is of lower dimension than the model. As a result, for some observations, agents may face an identification problem affecting the role of data in inference. Beliefs converge to the truth when these observations are rare, but beliefs diverge when observations presenting an identification problem are frequent. Robustly, two agents with differing priors who observe identical, unambiguous information may disagree forever, with stronger disagreement the more information received. 相似文献
7.
Alessandra Brito Miguel Foguel Celia Kerstenetzky 《Journal of post Keynesian economics》2017,40(4):540-575
There is a vast literature that estimates the effect of the minimum wage on wage inequality in various countries. However, as the minimum wage directly affects nonlabor income of families in some countries (in the Brazilian case via the benefits of the pension system and of certain social programs), this article extends the empirical analysis by studying the effects of the minimum wage on the level of inequality of household income as a whole. To accomplish that we employ a decomposition method that gauges the contribution of the increases in the minimum wage that occurred in recent decades in Brazil through the labor and nonlabor sources of household income. The results show that the minimum wage had a contribution of 64 percent to the observed fall in income inequality between 1995 and 2014 and that pensions were the most relevant channel over this period. 相似文献
8.
9.
Isaac M. Lipkus William M. P. Klein Celette Sugg Skinner Barbara K. Rimer 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(5):439-452
This longitudinal study explored the relationship between perceived breast cancer risk and worry. We measured both absolute and comparative risk perceptions, and also used the Gail algorithm to assess the accuracy of participants' risk perceptions. Three hundred and one women ages 40–75 participated in a two‐part study assessing how format of breast cancer risk presentation affected perceptions of risk. Relative to their Gail scores, women were biased pessimistically about their own absolute breast cancer risk and yet largely accurate about their comparative breast cancer risk. Perceived comparative risk, but not perceived absolute risk or biases in absolute or comparative risk, predicted subsequent worry. Worry predicted subsequent perceived absolute risk and biases in absolute and comparative risk. These results suggest that women's emotional reactions to breast cancer risk are based on accurate (unbiased) perceptions of their comparative risks. In turn, greater worry prompts a re‐evaluation of absolute risk as well as changes in risk biases. Implications for screening are discussed. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACTConcepts from country-of-origin, the authenticity concept, and ingredient branding make up the essential literature for this scale development. This study intends to develop a scale specifically to measure consumers' motivation to seek for ingredient authenticity. While studies on authenticity have heavily looked into brands, this study aims to uncover consumers' motivations of ingredient authenticity of the raw materials and artisan skills of the products. Four studies were undertaken to develop and validate this scale. The research adopted the Churchill's (1979) method of scale development. The methods for scale development and its implications are also highlighted. 相似文献