EFFECT OF FED POLICY ACTIONS ON THE DEFAULT LIKELIHOOD OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

Using a measure of default likelihood based on an option pricing method, we provide evidence that Fed policy actions affect the financial distress of commercial banks. When the Fed increases (decreases) interest rates, the measure of default likelihood increases (decreases). We show that when the Fed uses a tight money policy, the increase in default likelihood is more pronounced for banks that have less capital, have greater financial leverage, are smaller, have fewer growth opportunities, and have lower asset quality. Additionally, the effects on bank default likelihood are more pronounced when the Fed's policy signals less concern about economic growth, as indicated by its bias toward further tightening, and when there is a market expectation of higher short‐term market rates in the future.     

INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF BOND RATING ADJUSTMENTS

Several studies find that bond rating downgrades cause negative valuation effects. Other studies find that signals conveyed by earnings releases, earnings forecasts, bankruptcies, and stock offerings of individual firms can be transmitted to their corresponding industries. By combining the two sets of studies, we hypothesize that bond rating changes may contain relevant information not only about the firm, but also about the corresponding industry. We find significantly negative valuation effects for rating downgrades, which are transmitted throughout the industry. Furthermore, we find that intra-industry effects depend on particular characteristics of the bond downgrade, the downgraded firm, and industry rivals. Specifically, the negative intra-industry effects are more pronounced when (1) the downgraded firm experiences a more severe share price response to the bond rating downgrade, (2) the downgraded firm is dominant in the industry, (3) the downgraded firm is more closely related to its rivals in the industry, and (4) the downgrade is due to a deterioration in the firm's financial prospects.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

Validating the international tourist role scale

This study was designed to validate the international tourist role scale and the three dimensions it revealed. The purpose of this attitudinal scale was to measure the tourist role typology. United States adult outbound tourists flying with 11 major airlines returned useful questionnaires. This study validated the role scale as a reliable one that properly identified three conceptual dimensions of international tourist typology and successfully provided measures of tourists’ novelty-seeking preferences on the three dimensions. The study demonstrated, however, that the scale would measure the novelty-seeking preferences of international tourists more effectively if it were supplemented by other measures.     

Living in China： Hold the Oil Please

After residing in Beijing for over 6 years, many of my friends and colleagues in the d3.S. have said, Wow, it must be amazing living in China＂. Over the years I have to say, my experiences have been am...     

Ideology or pragmatism? trade union education in France and Britain

Trade union education–a significant area of trade union activity – has been characterised by a tension between the desire to provide a certain ideological, economic and political perspective and the need to develop pragmatic bargaining skills. This comparative study examines the differing ways in which trade union education has developed in France and Britain.     

Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL

This study investigates escalation effects in the Australian Football League (AFL). We use a sample of players selected in the AFL player draft (National Draft) between 1986 and 2002, and test for escalation effects by examining whether a player's draft order affects his subsequent utilisation by the club to which he was drafted. Utilisation is represented with measures of games played and tenure. Limited evidence of an escalation effect is found. Any relation between a player's draft order and his games played and tenure at the club to which he was drafted is concentrated in the early years of his career, and this apparent relation can be explained by the information about a player's ability that is contained in the player's draft order and by incentives for clubs to provide greater playing experience to higher ability players. Escalation effects in the AFL competition are therefore much weaker than have been found in studies of the US National Basketball Association (NBA). It is suggested that differences in the structure of the competitions may explain why the escalation effect in the AFL would be weaker than in the NBA.     

Archetypes of governance for science and technology labs

While policy-makers understand the vast benefits of publicly funded and not-for-profit research, governance practitioners have the difficult task of defining processes that can best foster high performance for science and technology (S&T) labs not primarily driven by profits. This qualitative study develops a new taxonomy based on two dimensions, the nature of the funding relationship between the parent organisation and the S&T lab and the degree of interdependence between the lab's research units. We discuss the dynamics uncovered for each of the four archetypes with illustrative cases and argue that high-performance governance of S&T labs requires an internal coherence linking the processes of planning, funding and performance evaluation.     

Computer knowledge and earnings: evidence for Australia

This paper uses data on wage and salary workers in Australia in 1993 to examine the relation between computer knowledge and earnings. A unique feature of the data set that is used is detailed information on the types and levels of computer skills possessed by individual workers. The main objectives of the study are to contribute to understanding the magnitude and sources of the relation between computer knowledge and earnings. Similar to existing research it is found that there is a large and significant return to computer knowledge, but that the magnitude of the return is substantially reduced in regressions that include detailed occupation controls. Using the detailed information on workers’ computer skills the main finding is that earnings are significantly positively related to the number of types of skills and average level of skills possessed by a worker.     

数字赋能企业商业生态系统跃迁升级的机理及路径研究

数字技术应用融合叠加商业模式创新催生商业生态新业态,实现跃迁升级。本文结合扎根理论与模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法,阐释数字赋能企业商业生态系统跃迁升级的机理,探究多重组态路径。从生态视角揭示了数字资源通过与传统要素资源融合释放数据价值,并驱动形成价值循环体系、实现价值共创、塑造商业群落,最终实现企业商业生态系统跃迁升级。基于fsQCA的多组态分析发现,数字赋能企业商业生态系统跃迁升级历经两个阶段分别为价值共创和商业群落生成。其中,价值共创实现有两条组态路径,即产品创新与要素融合相组合,技术融合同低产品创新、低数据资产相组合,且产品创新构成了价值共创的核心条件。商业群落生成的组态路径表现出以下特征：价值共创和价值链接协同下分别和网络组织、数据赋能相组合,网络组织和数据赋能互为替代,即在一方缺失时,分别与价值共创或价值链接组合实现商业群落构建。研究结论为企业商业生态系统的结构与功能持续优化,实现数字商业生态资源的充分共享及最优利用,提供了关键方法和思路。