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1.
Anthropological invariants in travel behavior 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Personal travel appears to be much more under the control of basic instincts than of economic drives. This may be the reason for the systematic mismatch between the results of cost benefit analysis and the actual behavior of travelers.In this paper we put together a list of the basic instincts that drive and contain travelers' behavior, showing how they mesh with technological progress and economic constraints. 相似文献
2.
Cesare Marchetti 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1980,18(4):267-282
The very simple heuristic suggestion that society as a whole and its numerous subsets operate like learning systems, basically governed by Volterra-Lotka equations, has been extremely valuable in organizing a most variegated collection of statistical sets of time series, ranging from the structure of energy markets to the efficiency of machinery and the expansion of empires. In this paper an attempt is made to treat invention and entrepreneurship, generally perceived as the most “free” of human activities but actually subject to iron rules. Invention and innovation during the last 250 years appear in precisely structured waves that lend themselves to robust prediction. The present wave will reach its maximum momentum around 1990. Furthermore, the introduction, maximum market penetrations, and prices of new primary energies show a very strong link to these innovation waves. This stresses once more that economic features may be the expression of deeper “physical” phenomena related to the basic working of society and thus become predictable up to a point through a very abstract and noneconomic analysis.This work has been done in the frame of IIASA's Energy Systems Program and can be considered as an outgrowth of and complement to the research on the evolution of energy systems described in IIASA Research Reports 79-12, 79-13, and 77-22. There it was found that a new primary energy coming into the market must be observed for 10 or 20 years if one is to extract the basic features necessary to predict its long-term market behavior. Specifically, it was concluded that the dates at which new primary energies come into play cannot be predicted. In this paper innovations are considered not one by one but as an abstract set, whose behavior is analyzed. In this frame possible birth dates for new energy sources can be identified, thus enhancing the quality of very long-term forecasting in the energy field. Also, prices appear predictable, at least in their gross features. 相似文献
3.
4.
Cesare Marchetti 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1983,24(3):197-206
The hypothesis that language and DNA represent two stages of the same evolutionary path is briefly evaluated. Volterra equations, so useful in describing the dynamics of competing systems are, in fact, equally efficient in describing social behavior, as shown in numerous examples. The emergence of language first, and science later, interpreted as a metalanguage, are attributed to a “hypercyclization” of basic competing utterances in analogy of hypercyclization of quasi-species of replicating molecules in Manfred Eigen's theory of DNA development and evolution. 相似文献
5.
This paper argues that a significant adjustment process has taken place in Polish industry in the early stages of the market-oriented reforms. We analyse comprehensive data on two-digit and three-digit manufacturing industries, disaggregated by firm ownership and size. By focusing on a decomposition of labour productivity growth, we obtain results which suggest that structural determinants of the recovery have outweighed cyclical ones. With regard to firm ownership and economic performance, we find that the productive response of state enterprises has been markedly different from that of private firms, with the latter outperforming the former. Finally, our results indicate that size matters, at least among private firms, and our results provide mild evidence of increasing returns.
JEL classification: D21, E63, P21. 相似文献
JEL classification: D21, E63, P21. 相似文献
6.
Domenico J. Marchetti 《European Economic Review》2005,49(5):1137-1163
We derive a measure of technological change from a dynamic cost minimization model that controls for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We estimate this measure using highly detailed panel data of a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms for the period 1984-1997. Our key finding is that technological improvements result in a contraction of labor input on impact. In principle, this result can be reconciled with the transmission mechanism of flexible-price models by resorting to reorganization and reallocation effects. On the other hand, however, it is consistent with the predictions of a sticky-price model. Using survey information on the frequency of price revisions, we corroborate the latter interpretation, by showing that the contractionary effect of technology shocks is much stronger for firms with stickier prices. 相似文献
7.
This paper investigates the markup of price over marginal cost in Italian manufacturing branches. The approach used is an extension of Hall's model that addresses some measurement shortcomings and theoretical limitations that may affect this class of model. The hypothesis of perfect competition is rejected in the majority of sectors over the period 1977–1995. The cyclical behavior of markups is found to vary significantly across branches, thereby helping to explain the contradictory evidence regarding the whole manufacturing sector reported in the literature. At branch level, industry concentration is found to be associated with countercyclical markups, providing scope for real effects of aggregate demand shocks. Finally, the size of the markup is negatively affected by both domestic and foreign competitive pressure. 相似文献
8.
Cesare Marchetti 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1979,15(2):79-86
The Energy Systems Program at IIASA devotes itself not only to the analysis of new energy systems work, but also to the synthesis of technical methods to solve the problems the analysis brings into evidence. The question of the very high capital investment in solar systems is dealt with, as is the possible problem of reducing this to a level bearable for developing nations. 相似文献
9.
This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector, multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths,
and endogenous fluctuations, without relying on factors’ hoarding. The model presents a novel theoretical economic mechanism
that supports sunspot-driven expansions without requiring upward sloping labor demand schedules. Its distinctive characteristic
is that the skill composition of aggregate labor demand drives expansionary i.i.d. demand shocks. Next, the model explains
the labor market dynamics from the supply side, while endogenizing the capital productivity response to changes in the aggregate
labor demand composition. Last but not least, it is worth to mention that the model presents an effective shock propagation
mechanism that operates into the labor market and across labor market segments through the cross elasticities of equilibrium
labor demand and supplies.
相似文献
10.
Ilaria Castelli Davide Massaro Alan G. Sanfey Antonella Marchetti 《International Review of Economics》2010,57(3):269-288
Few studies have addressed the role of different aspects of the Theory of Mind (ToM) (intentionality and false belief understanding)
in decision-making by adults playing strategic games where the importance of fairness is crucial. Even more interesting, this
topic has been less investigated with children. The goal of this research was to explore the development of the decisional
behavior along with the understanding of fairness, intentions and first- and second-order false belief understanding in children
who are just acquiring those abilities. Multiple rounds of the ultimatum game with a human and a non-human partner (child/roulette
wheel) were played by 177 children in the age range of 5–10 years, who also completed classic false belief tasks. Results
confirm the key role of fairness sensibility across age groups and different degrees of the relevance of ToM according to
the variability of children’s decisional behavior (stable vs. dynamic). 相似文献