Measuring Integrated Market and Credit Risk in Bank Portfolios: An Application to a Set of Hypothetical Banks Operating in South Africa

The banking crises of the ‘90s emphasize the need to model the connections between financial environment volatility and the potential losses faced by financial institutions resulting from correlated market and credit risks. Due to the number of variables that must be modeled and the complexity of the relationships an analytical solution is not feasible. We present here a numerical solution based on a simulation model that explicitly links changes in the relevant variables that characterize the financial environment and the distribution of possible future bank capital ratios. This forward looking quantitative risk assessment methodology allows banks and regulators to identify potential risks before they materialize and make appropriate adjustments to bank portfolio credit qualities, sector and region concentrations, and capital ratios on a bank by bank basis. It also has the potential to be extended so as to assess the risks of correlated failures among a group of financial institutions (i.e., systemic risk analyses). This model was applied by the authors to the study of the risk profile of the largest South African Banks in the context of the Financial System Stability Assessment program undertaken by the IMF in 1999. In the current study, we apply the model to various hypothetical banks operating in the South African financial environment and assess the correlated market and credit risks associated with business lending, mortgage lending, asset and liability maturity matches, foreign lending and borrowing, and direct equity, real estate, and gold investments. It is shown to produce simulated financial environments (interest rates, exchange rates, equity indices, real estate price indices, commodity prices, and economic indicators) that match closely the assumed parameters, and generate reasonable credit transition probabilities and security prices. As expected, the credit quality and diversification characteristics of the loan portfolio, asset and liability maturity mismatches, and financial environment volatility, are shown to interact to determine bank risk levels. We find that the credit quality of a bank's loan portfolio is the most important risk factor. We also show the risk reduction benefits of diversifying the loan portfolio across various sectors and regions of the economy and the importance of accounting for volatility shocks that occur periodically in emerging economies. Banks with high credit risk and concentrated portfolios are shown to have a high risk of failure during periods of financial stress. Alternatively, banks with lower credit risk and broadly diversified loan portfolios across business and mortgage lending are unlikely to fail even during very volatile periods. Asset and liability maturity mismatches generally increase bank risk levels. However, because credit losses are positively correlated with interest rate increases, banks with high credit risk may reduce overall risk levels by holding liabilities with longer maturities than their assets. Risk assessment methodologies which measure market and credit risk separately do not capture these various interactions and thus misestimate overall risk levels.     

Reviews

Retirement Communities: An American Original, by Michael E. Hunt, Allan G. Feldt, Robert W. Morans, Leon A. Pastalan, and Kathleen L. Vakalo. New York: Haworth Press. 1984. ISBN 0–86656–267–2. 278 pp. $29.95.

Senior Settlers: Social Integration in Retirement Communities, by Nancy J. Osgood. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1982. ISBN 0–03–059792–7. 296 pp. $29.95.

Life After Work: Retirement, Leisure, Recreation, and the Elderly, ed. Nancy J. Osgood. New York: Praeger Publishers. 1982. ISBN 0–03–060437–0. 372 pp. $32.95.

Work and Retirement, by Stanley Parker. London: George Allen & Unwin. 1982. ISBN 0–04–658238‐X. 203 pp. $9.95 paper, $28.50, cloth.

Adults and Their Leisure: The Need for Lifelong Learning, by John R. Verduin, Jr., and Douglas N. McEwen. Springfield, Ill: Charles C. Thomas. 1984. ISBN 0–398–04985–8. 170 pp. $17.50.     

Trans‐Tasman Transmission of Government Spending Shocks

This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal shocks between two closely‐linked, open economies. We estimate impulse response functions using a semi‐structural vector auto regressive (VAR) model and quarterly data from Australia and New Zealand for the period 1973:3–2008:4. We compare our empirical results with impulse response functions from a calibrated two‐country international real business cycle model with habit formation and adjustment costs to investment. We show that a positive shock to Australian government consumption leads to an increase in Australian output initially and then to a decline in the medium term, while the New Zealand output is negatively affected both in the short and medium term. This result is in line with the recent literature that reports beggar‐thy‐neighbour effect of positive government spending shocks.     

Never on Sunday? Mexican tourists at the beach

This paper examines contemporary middle class Mexican recreational tourism through a micro-ethnographic study of tourist behavior at a small beach resort in the state of Chiapas. Majority behavior represents the inversion of aspects of normal behavior, particularly in the deregulation of meal-times, night and day activities, and the rules for play. It is hypothesized that the particular, and comparatively excessive, behaviors described may stem from both the historically antecendant Spanish and Indian cultures, with their baroque tendencies, and from the recent liberation of the new middle classes from the “Victorian-like” rules of daily behavior. Behavior at the beach resorts resembles earlier types of vacation in the U.S.A. and this suggests there may be an evolution of tourist behaviors characteristic of the historical situation of the national home cultures of the tourists.     

Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP*

In this article, we merge two strands from the recent econometric literature. First, factor models based on large sets of macroeconomic variables for forecasting, which have generally proven useful for forecasting. However, there is some disagreement in the literature as to the appropriate method. Second, forecast methods based on mixed‐frequency data sampling (MIDAS). This regression technique can take into account unbalanced datasets that emerge from publication lags of high‐ and low‐frequency indicators, a problem practitioner have to cope with in real time. In this article, we introduce Factor MIDAS, an approach for nowcasting and forecasting low‐frequency variables like gross domestic product (GDP) exploiting information in a large set of higher‐frequency indicators. We consider three alternative MIDAS approaches (basic, smoothed and unrestricted) that provide harmonized projection methods that allow for a comparison of the alternative factor estimation methods with respect to nowcasting and forecasting. Common to all the factor estimation methods employed here is that they can handle unbalanced datasets, as typically faced in real‐time forecast applications owing to publication lags. In particular, we focus on variants of static and dynamic principal components as well as Kalman filter estimates in state‐space factor models. As an empirical illustration of the technique, we use a large monthly dataset of the German economy to nowcast and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We find that the factor estimation methods do not differ substantially, whereas the most parsimonious MIDAS projection performs best overall. Finally, quarterly models are in general outperformed by the Factor MIDAS models, which confirms the usefulness of the mixed‐frequency techniques that can exploit timely information from business cycle indicators.     

The Emergence of Corporate Governance from Wall St. to Main St.: Outside Directors, Board Diversity, Earnings Management, and Managerial Incentives to Bear Risk

Recent corporate events have brought a heightened public awareness to corporate governance issues. Much work has been accomplished to date, but it is clear that much more remains to be done. This paper provides a review of empirical research in four relevant areas of corporate governance. Specifically, the paper provides an overview of (a) the role that outside directors play in monitoring managers, (b) the emerging literature on the impact of board diversity, (c) the existence of and incentives for corporate executives to manage firm earnings, and (d) managerial incentives to bear risk.