Entrepreneurial Intentions and Outcomes: a Comparative Causal Mapping Study

This paper uses a causal map methodology to consider the contrasts between entrepreneurial intentions and outcomes. In evaluating a series of propositions drawn from the extant literature the study finds that the elicited causal maps are consistent with contrasts in entrepreneurial intentions, but not outcomes. This suggests that the existing emphasis on entrepreneurial strategies being deliberate, conscious processes may be misplaced: non-deliberate, emergent strategies may be just as influential in producing entrepreneurial outcomes. The study develops a series of output propositions suggesting that entrepreneurial outcomes are associated with causal maps which connect the internal operations of the business with the external environment. This implies that entrepreneurial success may be a result of intuitive systems thinking in which connections are made between the environment and the internal operations of the business.     

Disclosure of information: stratification and collective bargaining

Research has continually emphasised the lack of interest of management and trade unions into greater disclosure of information in collective bargaining. In this article the author explains this failure in terms of the stratification of new and existing information along hierarchical lines which do not disturb existing property rights and maintain status structures.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Family,Place and the Intergenerational Transmission of Union Membership

This article examines the importance of family, gender and place to the intergenerational transmission of trade union membership. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, we show that union membership among parents influences the union joining behaviour of young workers. These effects are particularly apparent among daughters and where both parents are members of unions. The effects of parental membership are also stronger among those born in areas characterized by relatively high levels of union density. Parental effects are therefore important to our understanding of the persistence of regional variations in levels of trade union membership.     

Tobacco Advertising and Children

This paper expresses the results of an investigation of the influence of tobacco advertising on children's smoking. The investigation examined the existing body of evidence and literature on the subject including data obtained from empirical research carried out by the Children's Research Unit in London. Despite the speculation regarding the possible role of advertising in juvenile smoking, no evidence was found to link juvenile smoking initiation with tobacco advertising. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that smoking initiation is more dependent on family smoking behaviour and peer pressures. These factors emerged consistently as the major influences in smoking initiation throughout the literature and the range of countries investigated regardless of the extent of tobacco advertising permitted in each country. Advertising is not as influential as is often supposed. Psychological filter systems are employed by the consumer, who selects only that information which is of relevance or interest to him. Widespread awareness of the tobacco-health issue means that an additional barrier is formed in the case of cigarette advertisements. There is no evidence that tobacco advertising influences non-smokers (either children or adults) to take up smoking.     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME PLUS HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTENDED INCOME IN THE U.K.

This paper provides new estimates of the distribution of extended income amongst non-elderly, one-family households in the U.K. by combining household money income data and valuations of household production time. Extended income is substantially more equal than money income and extending the income definition changes income relativities significantly between families with and without earners and between married couple families and singles.     

Evaluating the Relative Impact of Fiscal Incentives and Trade Policies on the Returns to Manufacturing in Taiwan, 1955–1995*

In the present paper, an integrated cash flow model is developed to examine the relative impact of tax incentives, financial subsidies, and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of industrial investments. It allows for the variables in the model to interact with each other. An application of the model is carried out for Taiwan, which has implemented a variety of fiscal incentives over the past 40 years. The principal policy conclusion is that trade and macroeconomic policies are much more important than income tax incentives or subsidized finance policies in determining the success of Taiwan's industrialization process. The effects of all of the fiscal incentives are found to be much smaller than those of the trade policies or the fundamental trends in macroeconomic variables such as the movement of the real exchange rate and the real wage rate.     

Purpose, development and use of injury indicators

Injury indicators can be used to give policy makers an estimate of the scale of injuries and their long-term effects. They can help compare injury levels in different areas and countries and can be used to help measure the effectiveness of interventions. Work on severity related indicators is promising. However there are no perfect indicators to date as many are hampered with difficulties in case definition and under reporting. For example, mortality rates are affected by improvements in care even if the incidence of an injury remains the same, the abbreviated injury scale (AIS) takes 10-20 minutes to code and so is not used in health service databases, surveys have problems with recall bias, definition of injury and response rates. If we accept that we need to make the best out of imperfect indicators and imperfect data then we should use multiple sources of data and accept that no one indicator can be used universally but needs to be selected for the purpose. For example, one possible new indicator of the incidence of non-fatal injury might be fracture data in the emergency department. Fractures are painful and so nearly always end up with a hospital attendance. This might give a means to compare incidence of non-fatal injury in different areas and countries. In conclusion, we need injury indicators to progress in injury prevention. Imperfect indicators can be used for targeting and evaluating interventions as long as we know and adjust for their limitations.     

Individual responses to firm failure: Appraisals,grief, and the influence of prior failure experience

This paper provides a systematic assessment of how entrepreneurs react to firm failure. We use appraisal theory as an overarching theoretical framework and hypothesize that the more the failure experience is appraised as stressful in terms of its implications for harm or loss, the greater the feelings of grief. To test this hypothesis we developed a unique database of entrepreneurs who recently filed for firm bankruptcy. Our results support that there is great variation in responses to firm failure, and we provide theoretically valid explanations to why this is the case. These findings have substantial implications for how scholars conceive and theorize about entrepreneurial failure.