Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series

Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock–Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock–Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed‐frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.     

Global Value Chains in the Era of 4IR: New Paradigm of Business Models for SMEs

This paper presents a brief literature review of previous studies methodologies,models,and contexts in studying firms’upgrading in Global Value Chains(GVCs).The...     

Designing and evaluating sustainable development pathways for semi‐subsistence crop–livestock systems: lessons from Kenya

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in African agriculture requires a better understanding why high levels of poverty and resource degradation persist in African agriculture despite decades of policy interventions and development projects. In this article, we hypothesize that policies need to account for the key features of the semi‐subsistence crop–livestock systems (CLS) in the region to become effective. The semi‐subsistence CLS are characterized by a high degree of biophysical and economic heterogeneity and a complex, diversified production system involving a combination of subsistence and cash crops with livestock. We investigated the potential for interventions proposed by the Government of Kenya to meet the SDGs by 2030. The analysis uses an integrated modeling approach designed to deal with the key features of these systems. A strategy that stimulates rural development, increases farm size to a sustainable level, and reduces distortions and inefficiencies in input and output markets could lead to a sustainable development pathway and achieve the SDGs for rural households dependent on CLS.     

Effects of redistributing policy support on farmers’ technical efficiency

The objective of this article is twofold: first, investigating the relationship between technical efficiency and decoupled direct payments of a sample of Italian farms prior to the application of the 2014–2020 Common Agricultural Policy reform; second, evaluating possible implications of alternative scenarios about distribution of direct payments on technical efficiency. To these aims, a stochastic frontier analysis is adopted. Results indicate that direct payments produce significant effects on technical efficiency in specialized farms, which received higher levels of support. However, effects are contrasting. Moreover, results show that redistribution of policy subsidies may negatively impact on technical efficiency to an extent depending upon the criterion of redistribution applied. Finally, some policy suggestions are given.     

Incubation matters: Measuring the effect of business incubators on the innovation performance of start‐ups

This article explores the role of business incubators on the innovation performance of start‐ups; in addition, we also investigate how the incubation effect moderates other important factors driving their innovation performance. The empirical evidence comes from a sample of firms located in Northern Italy belonging to the manufacturing (mechanical engineering firms) and service sectors (knowledge‐intensive business services). The results suggest that the incubation effect is very important in shaping the innovation performance of new ventures (measured as a percentage of sales of new‐to‐market innovations). Moreover, it positively moderates the impact of (1) the internal technical capabilities and (2) the adoption of a limited portfolio of collaborations for innovation.     

Multidimensional configurations of the organizational climate construct

This study describes the creation and validation of a multidimensional model which assesses the level of employee satisfaction based on international theoretical models. It utilizes data collected from a sample of 518 public and private company employees during the year 2009 in the city/state of São Paulo, Brazil. In the first stage of the study, 15 independent dimensions were theoretically obtained. In the second stage, five different multiple dimensions were confirmed using structure equation modeling (SEM) technique, thus characterizing general configurations of the organizational climate construct denominated motivation, management philosophy, leadership, people management and nature of work. It is hoped that the model can contribute by enhancing managerial best practices of an organization by attending a major demand for those listed on stock markets, since these companies must periodically provide information on job satisfaction of their employees to maintain or achieve higher levels of corporate governance.     

High involvement work practices and firm performance

During the past two decades the chain of three links organizational strategy – human resources practices – organizational performance has been deeply analysed. However, the mediator role of organizational structure in the first link of this chain remains relatively uninvestigated. In this article we analyse a model of relationships among organizational strategy, organizational structure, human resources practices, and organizational performance. Through a structural equation methodology applied to a sample of 183 Spanish companies, we will try to confirm that organizations with differentiation strategies are more likely to implement high involvement work practices. As a novelty we will introduce organizational structure as a mediator of this relationship. For that we will use the construct control mechanisms (centralization, formalization and socialization). Further, we will analyse the effect on firm performance of these proposed relationships among differentiation strategy, control mechanisms and high involvement work practices.