LABOUR SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

Abstract. Economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research. Despite advances in technique. it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes. It may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding, and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge. But rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data. In short, econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation, as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use. This paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data.
After briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate, we describe the early 'first generation' research (circa 1970), which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables, measurement errors, truncation and selectivity bias, and non linear budget constraints. 'Second generation' research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties, and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed, including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured.     

HOW TO CLEAR UP THE PENSIONS MESS

All three pillars of the British pensions system are crumbling. The basic state pension is unsustainable in its present form. Defined benefit occupational pension schemes are fast disappearing, and with them the retirement hopes of millions of workers. A further 3 million low-income earners are not saving enough for their retirement. And uncertainty about pensions choices is widespread. In each case the primary cause of the problem is governmental or regulatory failure. The paper makes eight general and four specific proposals for restoring the system.     

Hospital Mergers and Antitrust: Some Economic and Legal Issues

A bstract The article traces the development of the market for hospital services through evolutionary stages to the present emphasis on merger and consolidation. Examination of the traditional principles of antitrust analysis suggests they are sufficiently flexible to warrant their application in evaluating the competitive impact of hospital mergers.     

Understanding New Resource Projects

The surge in new resource projects has been a prominent feature of the recent strong performance of the Australian economy, with mining and energy investment accounting for almost one‐half of all private investment. Although the current round of resource investment has now peaked, as swings in the resource sector tend to repeat themselves, there is an ongoing need to carefully understand the available information sources. We use a specially developed panel of matched projects from three widely followed, but under‐researched, sources to analyze cost inflation, the biases, the degree of independence, and timeliness of each source. This information is of use to policy makers who have to closely monitor these developments, analysts following the resources sector, and project proponents wanting to know something about the typical cost profile of a project.     

Making sense of new technology during organisational change

This article examines how employees interpret the use of various social media and web 2.0 technologies by managers of an organisation during a merger process. The article explores the way in which managers use technology to give sense to the merger process, the corresponding sensemaking of employees and also how employees make sense of the use of technology itself. The findings show that new media enables the sharing of emotional sense about organisational processes between managers and employees and places employees with different levels of involvement with the process and at different points in the organisational hierarchy on equal footing. In spite of this, employees view the use of technology negatively and feel mastered by the technology itself. In discussing these unintended consequences of the use of this technology, the article further discusses the paradoxes that emerge from using new technology to give sense during organisational change.     

The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data

Abstract In this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non‐inflationary rate of capacity utilization (NIRCU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilization of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non‐inflationary capacity utilization rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses structural aspects and does not make it necessary to operate with – often rather arbitrary – statistical filters. We show that our aggregate NIRCU performs remarkably well as an indicator of inflationary pressure in a Phillips curve estimation.     

Trends in British public investment

British public investment has declined sharply both as a share of GDP and as a share of government spending since the 1970s. Only part of this decline is explained by privatisation, which transferred some public investment to the private sector. More important was the very large and permanent reduction in public house‐building between the mid‐1970s and the early 1980s. Between the late 1980s and the early 1990s, the rate of public investment recovered somewhat, but after that time it declined again, reaching a record low in 1999. The most recent decline in public investment has affected a range of central government programmes, and it has not been significantly offset by investment under the Private Finance Initiative. The government now plans to increase investment spending, although levels look set to remain low by historical standards for some time to come.     

Punishment in a Regulatory Setting: Experimental Evidence from the VCM

To analyze the effectiveness of punishment in inducing regulatory compliance, we modify a standard public goods experiment to include a financial penalty for free riding. The design allows us to vary both punishment probability and severity. We introduce the punishment mechanism in both a one-time and a repeated treatment and find that compliance (contributing to the public good) is increasing in expected punishment cost in both treatments. We also find that punishment severity has a larger effect on behavior than punishment probability. In the repeated treatment, we find that past punishment has a negative rather than positive effect on compliance.     

Payments or Persuasion: Common Pool Resource Management with Price and Non-price Measures

We use lab experiments to study policies that address common pool resource overuse. We look at a price mechanism, specifically a Pigouvian subsidy, and four non-price interventions. The non-price policies are information alone, information with a normative message, communication alone, and normative messages with communication allowed. In all experiment sessions, no intervention occurs in the first seven and last seven rounds, allowing us to examine the effects of introducing and taking away a policy. The subsidy leads to near-efficient extraction, but surprisingly leads groups that were not over-extracting to also reduce extraction. This over-compliance decreases efficiency, although on net the subsidy is the most efficiency-enhancing intervention. Information provision, communication, normative appeals, and normative appeals combined with communication all reduce over-extraction (though by less than the subsidy) without exacerbating over-compliance; however, the effects of information alone and communication alone are small and not robust. The non-price policies cause a decline in over-extraction of from 0.549 (information) to 11.441 % (normative appeals with communication). These effects are of the same order of magnitude as the effects seen in major field studies of conservation messaging. The subsidy has the worst persistence properties (after the intervention ceases), while normative messages with communication have the best.