Airline Code-share Alliances and Costs: Imposing Concavity on Translog Cost Function Estimation

This paper provides an assessment of how airline code-share alliances affect the costs of the airline industry. It makes two contributions to the literature. First, it measures the effects of airline alliances by estimating a translog cost function using a panel dataset of 10 major U.S.-based airlines over 29 quarters. Secondly, it ensures concavity of the estimated cost function by using the procedure suggested by Ryan and Wales (2000, Economics Letters 67, 253–260). A conventional translog cost function is first estimated and scale estimates are computed. Unfortunately, the estimated function fails the curvature requirement, which makes interpreting the estimated effects of alliances somewhat dubious. Hence, we re-estimate the cost function by imposing local concavity restrictions. We find that large alliance partners have a small negative effect on airlines costs, but small alliance partners effect on costs appear to be positive, although the magnitude is negligible. We also find material differences in the estimates of scale economies after imposing local concavity.JEL classification: L00, L12, L93     

Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator

This article uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of a reduction in the means‐tested benefit taper, or withdrawal, rates in Australia to 30 per cent. That is, all taper rates of 50 per cent and 70 per cent in the March 1998 benefit system are reduced to 30 per cent, while leaving all basic benefit levels unchanged. This change is therefore expected to ‘flatten’ the tax structure by reducing the high marginal tax rates applying to those with relatively low incomes and increasing the marginal tax rates of medium incomes. Simulations in which all individuals are assumed to remain at their pre‐reform labour supply levels are compared with behavioural simulations in which the majority of individuals are free to adjust the number of hours worked. The results reflect only the supply side of the labour market. The database used is the 1997‐98 Survey of Income and Housing Costs, so that weekly incomes are based on the financial year 1997‐98. The comparison shows that, for sole parents, accounting for behavioural effects of the reform results in a lower estimated expenditure for government, whereas for couples, accounting for behavioural effects results in a higher estimated expenditure.     

Effects of the Australian New Tax System on Income Tax and Benefits with and without Labour Supply Responses

This article uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of changes to the social security and income tax system as introduced by the Australian New Tax System in July 2000. First this whole set of changes is studied, followed by a separate discussion of some of its components. From the results it is clear that the change in income tax rates and thresholds had the largest effect, because it affected a large proportion of the population whereas the changes to the benefit system were only relevant to smaller groups. Small labour supply responses are predicted to result from the reform, which lower the increase in expenditure (for singles the expectation is that the increase may even turn into a decrease) and lower the decrease in revenue. Overall, the labour supply responses are expected to reduce the cost of the reform.     

International Evidence on the Link between Quality of Governance and Stock Market Performance

Abstract

This paper examines the link between country-level governance and global stock market returns. We find a negative relation between governance quality and equity return. Countries with low governance scores, on average, have higher equity returns than those with high governance scores after controlling for global risk factors known to influence international equity returns. This implies that investors associate low governance quality with increased risk and thus demand higher risk premium. We find that the quality of governance as measured by Political Stability and Absence of Violence is key governance dimension affecting international equity returns, suggesting that heightened investor concerns over political risks have profound impact on equity markets. Interestingly, we find no evidence that variation in equity returns is affected by the governance indicator representing Voice and Accountability. The findings of this study provide important policy implications.     

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR POLICY REFORMS IN BEHAVIOURAL TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING

This paper addresses the need for a measure of the uncertainty that is associated with the results calculated using tax policy behavioural microsimulation models. Deriving the analytical measure would be extremely complicated. Therefore, a simulated approach is proposed, which approximates the sampling distribution of aggregate measures based on the sampling distribution of the estimated labour supply parameters. This approach, which is very computer intensive, is compared with a more time‐efficient approach where the functional form of the sampling distribution is assumed to be normal. The results show that in many instances the results from the two approaches are quite similar. The exception is when aggregate measures for minor types of payments, involving relatively small groups of the population, are examined.